A band of heavy rain caused localized flooding to occur.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
A band of heavy rain caused localized flooding to occur.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 10, 5:08 AM CST, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 508 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 ...12Z AVIATION UPDATE... Key Messages: 1. Rain will continue through the morning and early afternoon hours before pushing out of the area by late afternoon. The highest precipitation amounts will be in the southwest portion of the area. 2. Potentially strong to severe storms early next week. .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 221 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 Water Vapor Imagery shows an upper level system currently over the Northern Plains, which is expected continue trekking east just north of the area throughout the day today, as depicted by several models and ensembles. Additionally, a 40-45 knot Low Level Jet has developed to our southwest. As a result of this system, rain has been pushing into the area, and is expected to continue pushing northeast across the CWA throughout the morning and early afternoon hours. The heaviest precipitation will remain in the southwest portion of the CWA, with lower amounts elsewhere. As of 2AM, portions of far southeast KS and southwest MO have seen around 0.15-0.30 inches of precipitation so far, with an additional 1.00-1.25 inches expected in the southwest CWA, and 0.20-0.75 elsewhere by the time the rain pushes out of the area later this afternoon. These amounts are well above the climatological normal for this time of year, which is highlighted by the Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails. MUCAPE values are progged to stay below 100 J/kg, so not expecting any widespread thunder with this system, however some lightning has been detected just west of the area during the early morning hours. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder or two, mainly in the southwest portion of the CWA. No widespread flooding is expected, however some low water crossings could see localized flooding and overtop with the more moderate precipitation. Hi-Res guidance shows the majority of precipitation occurring over the morning hours before pushing out of the area throughout the early afternoon. However, some locations in south central MO could see some lingering precipitation during the later afternoon hours as it continues to push east. Afternoon highs today are expected to range in the upper 40s to low 50s, with overnight lows in the 30s and potentially reaching 40 towards the southern portion of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 221 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 As the upper level system pushes east of the area, a brief ridging pattern will develop over the area ahead of the next active pattern. Models show another upper level system making landfall over the western CONUS by the end of this weekend, with a deep upper level low progged to develop over the Rockies and push into the High Plains by Monday. As this system continues to push east, southerly flow will begin to advect warm air and sufficient amounts of Gulf moisture into the area. Decent dynamics, good shear, and sufficient moisture will all contribute to the necessary ingredients bringing showers and thunderstorms into the area late Monday night into Tuesday. Although the higher instability remains south of the area, enough forcing and instability will lead to the possibility of some strong to severe storms, with all modes of severe weather looking to be possible Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Will continue to monitor this potential over the next few days and provide further detail as confidence increases. The main associated surface front will push out of the area by late Tuesday night, and the remainder of the forecast period looks dry as a drier air mass filters into the area. The latter half of next week looks much cooler, with afternoon highs in the 30s possible. However, WPC Cluster Analysis continues to show ensemble discrepancies in synoptic patterns, leading to a lot of uncertainty. Will need to further assess future model runs over the next several days. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 508 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 Showers and brief thunderstorms will continue to spread from the southwest through the morning hours before pushing out of the area this afternoon. High confidence in MVFR to IFR flight conditions continuing at the TAF sites as this system moves through the area reducing visibilities and ceilings, with instances of LIFR within the moderate pockets of rain showers. Overcast skies will linger beyond the passage of the system, with MVFR and IFR flight conditions continuing through the remainder of the TAF period. Some patchy fog will be possible later tonight. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...Melto LONG TERM...Melto AVIATION...Melto
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 232 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-110845- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 232 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited lightning risk. Limited Fog risk. DISCUSSION... Rain showers will continue to move across the area through the morning and afternoon hours. A few embedded rumbles of thunder may be possible across far southern Missouri. No severe weather is expected. Some patchy areas of fog will also be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are then back in the forecast for Monday night into Tuesday. Some of these storms may be strong to severe. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Melto
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The lower campgrounds flooded due to heavy rainfall at Roaring River State Park.
Highway 76 was closed to traffic both east and west bound due to flooding at a low water area.
Highway 76 at Flat Creek was flooded and impassable due to heavy rainfall.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, December 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1062207, 1062208, 1062209.