A stationary front near the Arkansas border focused several rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall across extreme southwest Missouri and central Missouri from the early morning of the 16th to the morning of the 17th. Rainfall accumulations for the 48-hour period ending at 7 AM on the 17th exceeded two inches.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
A stationary front near the Arkansas border focused several rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall across extreme southwest Missouri and central Missouri from the early morning of the 16th to the morning of the 17th. Rainfall accumulations for the 48-hour period ending at 7 AM on the 17th exceeded two inches. Some minor flooding was reported near the Lake of the Ozarks.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 5:17 AM CST, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 617 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 ...12Z AVIATION UPDATE... Key Messages: 1. Continued hot over the southwest CWA through today. 2. Thunderstorm chances continue through Wednesday. Heavy rain and localized flooding potential. 3. Small chance for strong to severe storms over southwest portions of the CWA this afternoon/evening. 4. Cooler temperatures over the area from Wednesday through the weekend. 5. Additional rain chances show up over the weekend into early next week. .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 159 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms have been visible on radar over central MO and into the northern CWA over the past couple overnight hours, however the better widespread rain chances look to begin later this morning. Overnight lows have been fairly mild across the area, with temperatures in the upper 60s to 70s observed. The frontal boundary is currently set up over the far southwest portion of the CWA, and is expected to remain stationary before pushing south later this evening. Meanwhile, shortwave energy continues to push southeast, and a low level jet which developed over the Plains has started nudging into our area. Abundant moisture, with PW values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches, will further aid in the heavy rainfall potential the area faces for the beginning of the forecast period. The HREF Reflectivity >40 dBZ paintballs show two different rounds of showers/storms throughout today and tomorrow, and several other ensembles/CAMs agree. First, as the monsoonal moisture continues to round the periphery of the summertime high, ensembles show it pushing southeast into the CWA later this morning and persisting through early evening. With this first round, CAMs have started pushing the heavier rainfall amounts towards the far eastern CWA, still highlighting that 1-3 inch range. A wide spread of temperatures is expected across the area, with highs in the 70s to mid 80s on the cool side of the frontal boundary, while mid to upper 90s are expected for far southeast KS and far southwest MO. With these higher temperatures in the southwest CWA, daytime heating combined with low level convergence and abundant moisture will lead to a second round of storm development near the frontal boundary later this afternoon/evening. There is a marginal risk of severe storms as instability increases, with damaging winds and large hail possible. Additionally, several CAMs have been highlighting higher QPF amounts for the southwestern MO Ozarks and southeast KS, with a potential 1-2 inches of widespread rainfall, placing that further west than previous runs. This convection is expected to persist through Wednesday morning before pushing out of the area later in the afternoon. With these two rounds of heavy rainfall, some localized areas of excessive rainfall and flooding will be possible, especially with any training storms. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Monday) Issued at 159 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 As the convection pushes out of the area, a cooler, drier airmass will move in from the north and settle over the area through the remainder of the work week. Below normal temperatures are expected for the remainder of the forecast period, with afternoon highs generally ranging in the 70s on Wednesday before slightly increasing to the 80s through the weekend. For reference, afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90 are normal for this time of year. Ensembles then show additional chances of rainfall heading into next weekend and the early part of the next work week as a closed upper level low over the upper Great Plains pushes towards the Great Lakes region. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase throughout the morning and afternoon and persist through tonight. Confidence on coverage throughout the morning is limited, however by this afternoon/evening, chances increase for showers and thunderstorms to impact the TAF sites. Flight categories are expected to decrease to MVFR and IFR conditions with the stronger storms. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...Melto LONG TERM...Melto AVIATION...Melto
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 241 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-170745- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 241 AM CDT Tue Aug 16 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited hail risk. Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk. Elevated lightning risk. Elevated excessive heat risk. Elevated excessive rainfall risk DISCUSSION... Heat index values will reach the middle 90s to low 100s again today for the southwest portion of Missouri into southeast Kansas. Showers and thunderstorms will continue today. One to two inches of widespread rainfall will be possible through tomorrow, with isolated amounts over 3 inches possible. Some strong to severe storms will also be possible over far southwest Missouri this afternoon and evening. Large hail to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible with the strongest storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday morning before pushing out of the area later in the afternoon. Dry, cooler weather is then expected for the rest of the week before rain chances return to the area over the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Melto
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 117 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:25 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall occurred along Spring Cove Road. One vehicle had water inside as it was stuck in four feet of water. Several other roads were impacted by flood waters.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1052822.