The upper-level high pressure system was located over the Great Basin area on August 16, 2022, while a backdoor front moved into eastern New Mexico before stalling along the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Increased moisture and favorable upslope flow supported increasing thunderstorm coverage across much of northeast New Mexico.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
The upper-level high pressure system was located over the Great Basin area on August 16, 2022, while a backdoor front moved into eastern New Mexico before stalling along the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Increased moisture and favorable upslope flow supported increasing thunderstorm coverage across much of northeast New Mexico. With already saturated soils from an active monsoon season, the stage was already set across this area for flash flooding. New Mexico's largest burn scar was hit once again with strong thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall, flooding areas that have been repeatedly hit this summer. Meanwhile, heavy rain also impacts northwest New Mexico near the Arizona border, causing devastating flash flooding around Sheep Springs.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 10:38 AM MST, 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1138 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist at most terminals, although MVFR cigs are forecast to develop tonight behind a backdoor front and impact KLVS through Wednesday morning. In addition, short- lived MVFR conditions are possible with thunderstorm impacts today at KGUP, KFMN and KLVS. A gusty east canyon wind is forecast at KABQ overnight, but is forecast to remain below Airport Weather Warning threshold at this time. 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...1017 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022... .UPDATE... Updated the Flash Flood Watch to include Union and Harding Counties based on 12Z model output showing decent run-to-run consistency with higher qpf placement, modest instability and relatively light steering flow. Deep convection across far northeast NM will produce torrential rainfall this afternoon/evening with the potential for amounts up to 4". 11 && .PREV DISCUSSION...203 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022... .SYNOPSIS... An increasingly active stretch of the monsoon will be on hand for the remainder of the week into this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will first expand over northern New Mexico today and Wednesday as a moist surface front and an upper level disturbance move in the area. Thunderstorms will then multiply and expand into Thursday, Friday and the weekend with abundant moisture moving into place. Stronger storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall, as well as areas of flash flooding, especially over recent wildfire burn scars. The increasing amount of clouds and showers and thunderstorms will cause temperatures to cool a few degrees below normal. && .DISCUSSION... ...INCREASING NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO A HIGHER RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... The synoptic pattern features a 590dm 5H upper high over the Great Basin, while a well defined easterly wave is moving westward through the TX Big Bend area this morning. Remnant showers and storms that persisted near Raton overnight will slowly taper off through this morning. Surface obs and radar show a surface outflow boundary progressing southward through the northeastern plains as well, originating from convection over the Front Range yesterday evening. This boundary looks to stall somewhere over east-central NM along or near I-40 as it comes up against prevailing southeasterly surface flow associated with the easterly wave. Flow behind this feature will turn more upslope into the Sangre de Cristo Mtns with CI resulting by midday over the high terrain. With the easterly upslope flow and stalled surface boundary acting as a catalyst for CI, midlevel atmospheric stretching b/w the easterly wave and upper high will result in very robust and long duration thunderstorm activity along and east of the Sangre de Cristo Mtns through the evening hours. Heavy rainfall over already saturated soils in the northeastern highlands and over burn scars support the issuance of yet another Flash Flood Watch for this area today. Meanwhile, more standard scattered convection will favor the western and north-central mountains with slow steering flow. Water vapor imagery this morning meanwhile shows a tongue of dry air aloft that looks to suppress convective activity through central NM and into the Rio Grande Valley. But can't entirely rule out an isolated storm over the Sandia/Manzano and Gallinas Mountains that is able to punch through during the afternoon. Storm activity will persist longest over the northeastern plains where the aforementioned upper level deformation keeps nocturnal convection going. Otherwise, a few showers or storms associated with the easterly wave may reach into southern Lincoln or Socorro Counties as the wave moves south of El Paso Wednesday night. LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... Thursday’s upper level features will consist of the upper low over Sonora (that originated from the western Gulf of Mexico) and the primary upper high centered over UT/WY/CO with satellite centroids over central Old Mexico and also in the eastern Pacific. This will bring a northerly wind aloft into northern NM with perhaps some drying in northern NM with PWATs dropping closer to 0.75” in the northern Sangre de Cristos. Still much of the forecast area will retain higher PWATs close to 1.0 inch or better, especially in southeastern zones, so another active thunderstorm day is anticipated with scattered to numerous storms throughout the forecast area. Some weak deformation and stretching aloft is possible in the southern zones with slow storm motions that will be conducive to locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures will generally run 5 to 10 degrees below normal due to the abundant cloud cover and storms. The tri-state high over UT/WY/CO will weaken considerably and sag into NM on Friday with a cut-off low wandering into southern ID. This will keep the relatively drier air (PWAT around 0.75”) over the Sangre de Cristos with moisture increasing farther south and west (PWATs near or greater than 1.0 inch). Very light steering flow would again be in place over NM with no subsidence expected, so scattered to numerous storms would once again initiate, particularly over the western and central high terrain. The aforementioned low over southern ID would drop southeastward into Saturday, but how far is anything but certain. The bigger impact will come from a significant moisture surge as the other low over Sonora and southern AZ helps initiate a southerly component that will steer part of the deep monsoon plume over much of NM. The flow aloft could turn more westerly into Saturday, but will still remain quite moist as a portion of the plume in AZ expands into NM. Relatively drier air may finally start to seep back into NM from the north on Monday and more-so into Tuesday of next week, reducing the storm coverage some. 24/52 && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns through the forecast period. A continued active monsoon pattern will keep area burn scars under the threat of flash flooding however. Northern burn scars, with the HPCC burn scar in particular will see a heightened threat of flash flooding today. This threat expands to all burn scars for the rest of the week with Saturday seeing the peak threat of widespread flash flooding. 24 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ227-228-230-231. Flood Watch until 10 PM MDT this evening for the following zones... NMZ214-215. &&
The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 145 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:28 UTC.
9 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The IMET on the Calf Canyon fire reported flash flooding along New Mexico 276 due to the Maestas Creek overfilling its banks. Damages are not known.
Heavy rain on the Calf Canyon burn scar caused Canoncito Creek to overfill its banks and flood Highway 518. Damages are not known.
Heavy rain on the Calf Canyon burn scar ran into the Rito San Jose, causing it to overfill its banks. This caused significant flooding near Rociada as high and fast-moving water ran up against a house near Highway 105 and County Road A4B. Water nearly swept away a large propane tank as well. Reports were also received of water near another building in Rociada and with water up to the bumpers of several parks vehicles. Damages are a rough estimate.
Heavy rain near Church Rock forced the closure of Interstate 40 in both directions at mile marker 33.
The Colfax County emergency manager reported minor damage to State Route 21 as the nearby Moras Creek and Rayado Creek flowed over the roadway. Damage was mainly along the shoulder. Damages are estimated.
Video shared on the social media platform Tik Tok showed impressive and devastating flash flooding near Sheep Springs. A massive wave of water near U.S. Highway 491 swept horse trailers, farm equipment, and lawn furniture downstream. Water overtopped the hoods of parked vehicles and inundated a few structures and residences. Damages are a rough estimate.
Heavy rain near Tse Bonito caused water to flow over State Route 264 at mile marker 1. Reports were received of cars stalled on the roadway. Damages are estimated.
Heavy rain near Yah-Ta-Hey caused water to flow over State Route 264 at mile markers 9 through 10. Any damages are not known.
Flash flooding reported along County Road 4990 at Armenta Wash near Bloomfield with water flowing over the roadway. This completely destroyed the roadway. Damages are estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1039761, 1039763, 1039764, 1039772, 1039771, 1039774, 1039777, 1039778, 1039809.