Extreme Cold in Minnesota, February 3, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1127 PM CST Wed Feb 2 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 PM CST Wed Feb 2 2022

Summary: Cold temperatures continue through the weekend with a few
chances for light snow. Warmer temperatures then build in heading
into the new week.

High pressure stretched from southern Saskatchewan into the
Northern Plains and was building eastward. A fairly tight pressure
gradient between this high and low pressure in the Ohio Valley was
leading to some breezy winds across the region this afternoon
under partly to mostly sunny skies. As the core of this high
spreads eastward overnight, clear skies and light winds will allow
for good radiational cooling conditions. Lows will range from the
teens below zero in our southeastern zones to the 30s below zero
in our northwestern zones. With the core of the high still to our
west tonight, light winds will lead to wind chills of 30 to 45
below zero, coldest along the International Border into the
Minnesota Arrowhead. Additionally, some of the hi-res models are
showing signals of a katabatic wind setup along the North Shore
during the evening hours and then weakening during the early
morning hours. With the expected sub 40 below wind chills in our
northern zones, have upgraded the Wind Chill Advisory to a Warning
in those areas no changes elsewhere to the existing advisory.

Quiet and cold for Thursday as the high moves through region
before a weak clipper passes through for Thursday night into
Friday. Moisture will be limited with this system and any
accumulations will be under an inch. The upper pattern then stays
active heading into the region with the jet passing overhead. A
stronger clipper will move through for Saturday into Sunday and
looks to have a bit more moisture and upper-level forcing to work
with. Even so, snow looks to remain sub-criteria level with this
system with the highest amounts possible through the Borderland.

Periodic chances for light snow will persist into the new week,
but temperatures are expected to trend warmer for the latter part
of the forecast period. Just how much warmer remains in question,
but there is a possibility areas could break the freezing mark.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Wed Feb 2 2022

High pressure will cover the terminals through much of the forecast
with VFR conditions. Some mid level clouds arrive late in the
forecast ahead of a weak system moving across the Dakotas.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 921 PM CST Wed Feb 2 2022

Northwest winds will persist for tonight into Thursday morning
become light and variable Thursday afternoon as high pressure
moves through the region. Winds will turn southwesterly for
Thursday night into Friday with gusts to 20 to 25 knots through
mid-Friday morning before diminishing and turning northwesterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -23   1 -12   7 /   0   0  20  20
INL -33  -1 -12   3 /   0   0  30   0
BRD -28   0 -12   6 /   0   0   0  10
HYR -22   5 -13   9 /   0   0   0  30
ASX -15   4 -11   9 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Wind Chill Warning until 9 AM CST Thursday for MNZ010>012-020-
     021.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for MNZ018-019-025-
     026-033>038.

LS...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Melde/GSF
MARINE...BJH/GSF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
315 PM CST Wed Feb 2 2022

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-031130-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
315 PM CST Wed Feb 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Dangerous wind chills are expected tonight. A Wind Chill Warning
and Advisory are in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The Wind Chill Warning and Advisory are in effect through
Thursday morning.

Cold temperatures will continue through Sunday night. Any
combination of these temperatures and some wind will lead to
additional wind chill headlines being needed.

An Alberta clipper will affect the Northland Thursday night, with
another one Saturday through Saturday night. Some light
accumulation is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon or
tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-150-031130-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
315 PM CST Wed Feb 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Gusty winds and increasing wave heights Saturday may result in a
Small Craft Advisory being needed along a portion of the north
shore.

GSF

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)