High Wind and Strong Wind in Kentucky, March 30 to 31, 2022

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
451 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 445 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2022

As of late afternoon, the axis of an upper level ridge extended
from off the southeast US coast northwest into the Eastern Great
lakes to Quebec while an upper level trough extended from the
Hudson Bay are into the upper MS Valley to Plains while an upper
ridge extended into the western Conus and shortwave trough was
moving across the Pacific northwest. At the sfc, an ridge of high
pressure extended from near Bermuda into the northeast Conus to
Quebec while a warm front extended across the Carolinas to the
southern Appalachians and then north near the crest of the
Appalachians to the mid to upper OH Valley and then west across
the southern Great Lakes to sfc low pressure in the midwest. A
wavy sfc cold front in advance of the previously mentioned upper
level trough extended south and then southwest into the Southern
Plains. A rather tight moisture gradient exists in the warm sector
from east to west across the Commonwealth with dewpoints in the
30s to around 40 in East KY to the lower 60s in far western KY.
Strong wind fields aloft and gusty south winds are in place across
the Commonwealth. This downslope component and deep mixing is
helping to maintain the moisture gradient and the much drier air
in East KY compared to locations further west. Critical or near
critical Fire Weather is occurring with the combination of rh in
the upper teens to mid to upper 20s range combined with the very
warm temperatures and gusty winds. Recent satellite imagery
suggests wildfires at this time in Letcher, Perry, Breathitt, lee,
and Morgan counties with others in SW VA and eastern TN and WV.

The sfc low now over the midwest will track into the Great Lakes
tonight and send the cold front east across the Commonwealth. A
prefrontal band of convection/trough or outflow boundary should
precede this. Meanwhile at mid and upper levels, an initial
shortwave rotating through the trough to the west will rotate into
the OH Valley this evening while the axis of the trough lags to
the west and and nears the OH Valley late tonight. This and an
embedded shortwave trough or two should work into the OH Valley
late Thursday into Thursday evening with the mid and upper level
trough axis working into East KY late in the short term period.
Sfc high pressure over the Central Conus should begin to nose into
the Commonwealth on Thu night.

After the gusty winds from midday through the afternoon, a bit of
a lull in the gustiness is anticipated toward sunset and for a
few hours after, before convection or its remnants approach and
higher momentum is mixed down along and just in advance of the
leading edge of it. With the decrease in winds and temperatures
falling toward sunset along with an increase in moisture, the
Critical Fire Weather should end toward or near sunset. As for the
convection late this evening and overnight, instability will drop
off with eastern extent due to the moisture gradient, but some
recent CAM runs bring a weakening line of convection, with
probably some embedded thunder toward East KY near midnight and
after. Any storms during that time could produce gusty winds.
Opted to go with chances for thunder that were in agreement with
the SPC forecast from generally along and west of a Flemingsburg
to Jackson to Harlan line. The hires/convective allowing models
and the NBM continue to support the second period of gustiness
toward midnight into the overnight hours that should reach near or
into the Wind Advisory criteria range. Some of the guidance
suggests that in several cases these gusts may exceed peak wind
gusts from earlier in the day. The prefrontal convection should
continue east across the area overnight with some measurable
rainfall.

The cold front should have entered the western portion of the area
by sunrise, although another shortwave trough is expected to
approach. Despite the cold front itself expected to pass east of
the region by midday on Thursday, unsettled weather should
continue through most of the short term period. Showers near and
even postfrontal are expected through midday to early Thu
afternoon near and along the front and with a shortwave trough. A
relative lull in between waves is expected from mid to late Thu
afternoon with shower chances returning Thu evening into Thu night
as the next wave arrives.

Temperatures will remain rather mild tonight and into Thursday
ahead of the front with temperatures returning to nearer to normal
levels to end the period on Thu night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2022

The period will begin with recovering upper level heights, as a
trough pivots through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. Across
the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley, shortwave ridging will be
pressing in as high pressure meanders in at the surface through
Friday. With cold air continuing to advect in on west/northwest
flow, below average temperatures can be expected for the day under
decreasing cloud cover. An upper level shortwave will then dig
through Ontario with troughing down and through the Mid Mississippi
Valley. An area of low pressure will develop across the Central
Plains during this time, pushing east and weakening/washing out as
it enters the Ohio Valley mid weekend. This will provide the
opportunity for isolated to scattered PoPs, before exiting east by
Sunday morning. Operational guidance varies in solutions, with the
ECMWF almost entirely dry, while the GFS is the most bullish.
Ensembles recount a more conservative approach suggesting a few
hundreds, to at most, a tenth of an inch of QPF. Given these
discrepancies and better agreement within ensembles, have veered
toward the blend. In its wake, quasi-zonal upper level flow will be
in place across the CONUS, with another wave moving through the flow
across the Upper Midwest and into Ontario, while a southern stream
positively tilted wave digs through the far Southern Plains. This
will bring another opportunity for isolated to scattered PoPs for
the end of the period, but guidance shows many discrepancies in
timing, strength, track, and QPF. As such, have used the blend but
dialed back PoPs to chance.

As far as temperatures, a gradual warming trend can be expected.
Highs Friday will range from the upper 40s in the north to mid 50s
in the south. Winds out of the south to southwest will aid in
raising temperatures into the upper 50s to low 60s Saturday, before
further warming to the upper 60s and low 70s by Tuesday. As with
high temperatures, lows will be the coolest at the start of the
period, ranging from the upper 20s in the valleys to low 30s atop
ridges overnight Friday. These will generally trend warmer in the
nights to follow, bottoming out in the mid and upper 40s by Monday
night and into Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT WED MAR 30 2022

VFR conditions are expected to largely prevail though MVFR may
spread into the area behind the cold front late in the period
during the 12Z to 18Z timeframe. Some brief MVFR is not out of
the question in any showers or thunderstorms after 3Z, but CIGS
and VIS in those should mostly be VFR. The main aviation concern
is the strong wind gusts. Sustained speeds generally in the 15 to
20KT range are expected to begin the period with gusts in the 30
to 40 KT range. These winds may temporarily diminish toward 0Z and
for a couple of hours after, with LLWS threat returning, as very
strong flow aloft continues at 850 mb. Surface winds will likely
increase once again with gusts over 30 KT anticipated as
convection approaches from the west generally after 3Z. This
convection is expected to weaken as it makes east, with winds
gradually decreasing through 12Z. Winds will average out of the
south through 6Z, then become more southwest through 12Z and
trend toward the west to end the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BB
AVIATION...JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
407 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-312315-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
407 PM EDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...This evening and Tonight.

An approaching strong cold front will bring strong wind gusts to
the area at times through late tonight. See the latest Wind
Advisory product for further details. The combination of low
relative humidity and strong wind gusts will also result in an
increased threat for wildfires through sunset.

Thunderstorms are possible late tonight generally along and west
of a Flemingsburg to Jackson to Harlan line. A few of these may
produce strong to damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are also possible along and south of a Paintsville
to Hazard to Williamsburg line on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any wind damage into tonight.

JP