Showers and storms accompanied a slow-moving cold front during the afternoon and evening of the 9th. A period of more persistent rain fell across southeast Bell County during the evening hours and led to a few instances of nuisance flash flooding in the Clear Fork basin of southeast Bell County.
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The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Showers and storms accompanied a slow-moving cold front during the afternoon and evening of the 9th. A period of more persistent rain fell across southeast Bell County during the evening hours and led to a few instances of nuisance flash flooding in the Clear Fork basin of southeast Bell County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 9, 10:00 PM EST, 0 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2022 Hourly temperatures seem pretty much on track for the most part. Saw no need to alter overnight mins as a result. Thunder has been persistent across the far south. But trends have finally begun to take the bulk of activity to our south. However, while thunder has been removed from the forecast, can not rule out a renegade thunderstorm down around the Middlesboro area for about another hour. Updated the forecast package to remove thunder and freshen up wording. Also beefed up fog through the remainder of the night based on trends. UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2022 Surface cold front is all but through eastern Kentucky. There are still a few thunderstorms right along the Kentucky & Tennessee state line. The threat of thunder will not completely go away until the surface front is completely out of the area. Currently satellite imaging indicates cloud tops are still cooling on the storm down around Monticello. Thus maintained a small chance for another hour or so. These storms are also putting out some decent rainfall. But all of this will wane over the next couple of hours. Will likely do another update in an hour or so to remove thunder. Eventually northeast flow will begin to develop across the area sometime through the overnight period. This will tend to keep clouds in place across eastern Kentucky. With recent rainfall will need to watch for the potential of some locally dense fog later during the overnight period as post frontal subsidence begins to develop above the boundary layer late tonight. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 519 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2022 A frontal boundary (precip enhanced) is bisecting the forecast area east/west late this afternoon. Temperatures north of the boundary are only around 70, while to the south it's around 80. A line of showers/thunderstorms is developing near the boundary, while elevated showers persist to the north, but they are slowly waning. The nearest term question/uncertainty is how fast the northern showers dissipate, and the extent to which southern convection develops. Guidance suggests the northern precip will taper off fairly quickly early this evening. However, this will need to be watched, and if it happens more slowly, the POP there may need to be extended. Likewise, if the southern convection fills in well, adjustments may also be needed there. Regardless of the evolution, the larger trend will be for the activity to drop southward during the evening, and eventually exit/dissipate southward out of the forecast area. The next concern then becomes the extent of clearing and the potential for fog and/or stratus during the night. The greatest potential for clearing overnight will be in our northwestern counties. Drier air will try to work in behind the front in our northern counties, but with weak flow it may have trouble displacing our surface air mass. Confidence is low in how it all plays out. An ill defined and decaying residual boundary will still be in the area Sunday, and forecast soundings suggest there could be enough moisture left in our southeast counties for some showers/thunderstorms to pop up with diurnal destabilization. If it were to happen, they should quickly die out with loss of heating in the evening. Surface ridging then takes over under weak northerly flow aloft to give fair weather with valley fog during the night. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2022 The period will begin under the influence of high pressure, resulting in highs near seasonal norms. Starting in the upper levels, a large ridge dome resides across the Southwest, expanding into the Ohio River Valley and portions of the Mid Atlantic. To our north, a series of shortwave troughs are present, sitting both across the USA/Canadian border and another in Northeastern Quebec. At the surface, high pressure will traverse east through Monday, allowing for winds to shift out of the south/southwest by the afternoon. A surface low, associated with the aforementioned trough, will be in place just north of the Great Lakes, with a cold front draped southwest across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Central Plains. Given the return flow off the high, PWATs will increase to around 1.5" Tuesday afternoon. This will allow for a few isolated to scattered showers/storms to develop for the afternoon and into the night. Highs will also notably jump up a few degrees compared to Monday. As the surface low and associated frontal boundary slowly meander east, shower and storm chances increase into the day Wednesday. The GFS is certainly the most bullish with QPF and even a bit quicker in timing, and this is reflected in ensemble guidance as well. Given the lack of agreement here and weak forcing overall, have veered closer to the blend in terms of shower/storm potential, as well as the slower progression of the boundary. As the front progresses east across the Appalachians into Thursday morning, a few residual showers and storms will be possible through the day. These will primarily stay contained to the southeast, along the Virginias. Upper level heights will then increase through Friday, with high pressure returning across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. Cooler and drier air upon northerly flow will end the period Friday and into the early weekend. Overall, the extended will feature temperatures much closer to seasonal norms. Highs will be their warmest Tuesday, in the upper 80s and low 90s, before cooling into the low and mid 80s Tuesday and mid 80s through the end of the work week (post front). Lows will follow a similar curve, in the mid to upper 60s through Tuesday night, before dropping into the upper 50s to mid 60s through the remainder of the period. Overall, the second half of the extended will be a refreshing feel, as highs settle near mid June norms and dew points range in the 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 9 2022 UPDATE... Guidance has not been useful tonight and has not handled the evolution of conditions very well this evening. CIGS have dropped rapidly to near airport minimums in most cases. Overall, this has become a low confidence forecast as flight conditions have been generally deteriorated well below guidance. Updated TAFs to reflect the formation of lower CIGS and VSBYS. However, KLOZ and KSME are seeing some stronger winds from the northeast, which could help with flight conditions, possibly tending to keep VSBYS up while CIGS drop. A surface cold front is all but through eastern Kentucky. There are still a few thunderstorms right along the Kentucky & Tennessee state line just ahead of the frontal boundary. While the threat of thunder has ended at our terminals, the threat of thunder will not be totally gone from the area until the surface front is south of the Kentucky state line. Eventually northeast flow will begin to develop across the area...during the overnight, or late tonight. This will tend to build lower CIGS back in place across our terminals. Will also need to watch for the potential of some locally dense fog as post frontal subsidence begins to develop above the boundary layer late tonight. Wind will be light and out of the northeast Sunday, with a gradual improvement in CIGS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...BB AVIATION...RAY
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1045 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-101100- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 1045 PM EDT Sat Jul 9 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible in some locations Sunday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms are also possible at times Tuesday through Thursday with the passage of a slow moving cold front. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. HAL/BB/RAY
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 59 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:57 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Bell County dispatch and the public reported water blocking KY-188 near the Colmar community.
Bell County dispatch reported flood waters blocking KY-217 near Pine Branch Road. Social media reports also indicated flooding just upstream in the Hutch community.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1029508, 1029509.