A cold front was slowly pushing through the state on Saturday, July 2. Warm and humid conditions ahead of the front led to destabilization, and the development of strong storms with excessive rain and frequent cloud to ground lightning.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A cold front was slowly pushing through the state on Saturday, July 2. Warm and humid conditions ahead of the front led to destabilization, and the development of strong storms with excessive rain and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Several of these storms out-preformed the rest, with higher cores and stronger winds. This resulted in four severe thunderstorm warnings being issued throughout the evening across southeast Kentucky. Unfortunately, only one of these storms actually resulted in realized severe winds at the surface, near Jackson in Breathitt County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 2:33 PM EST, 1 hour 24 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 333 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 217 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2022 Surface cold front continues to drift southward across the area at a slow pace this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to fire across eastern Kentucky as a result. Interesting to watch the combinations of drier air mixing down (hrrr handled evolution of the boundary layer quite well) and temporary stabilization of the boundary layer from outflows in the vicinity of thunderstorms effectively wiping out any development of CU, again on a temporary basis. Eventually moisture returns and convection tries to refire. Life cycle of storms is just a bit longer than yesterday, an indication of slightly better environmental shear across the area. Based on satellite trends we are seeing signs of a better chance of gusty winds in the vicinity of storms this afternoon as well, as compared to yesterday. The strongest storms are producing some breif heavy rainfall as well. Luckily storms have had enough movement to them to prevent any hydro problems from developing, thus far. Have not seen much in the way of training either, but will be monitoring closely. Updated grids and zones based on latest trends and thoughts. Hardly need to mention that afternoon highs are going to be quite tricky based on where best convection fires and rain cooled air drops temps. Best, more widespread convection is developing in the southern half of the CWA, as expected. UPDATE Issued at 1045 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2022 Isolated convection continues to fire across the area this morning. A surface cold frontal boundary stretches west to east across the Commonwealth, roughly just south of the Ohio River. The surface boundary might be as far south as the I-64 corridor. The hrrr typically does a decent job with surface moisture. More recent runs show a decent surge of sorts of drier air southward across the area today, most likely due to a combination of the surface front dropping slightly southward and a bit of mixing of drier air to the surface from aloft (based on forecast soundings). The hrrr suggests a pooling of higher dew points, or moisture across our southern zones by this afternoon which could to be associated with a residual convective outflow, likely reinforced by the surface cold front. Regardless of what makes up this feature, it will be the focus of afternoon convection, mainly along and south of the Mountain Parkway for the bulk of activity. Surface dew points do increase back to the north by late afternoon as a result of afternoon convection. Current forecast looks pretty decent with highest PoPs across the southern half of the CWA this afternoon. Did tweaked PoPs to increase slightly faster through the remainder of the morning based on radar trends and expectations. Also increased afternoon highs just slightly as we started out the gate quickly this morning...temps were already a few degrees ahead of hourly expectations. Finally, freshened up the zones to remove morning wording and fog. Locally heavy rain still looks possible this afternoon. But any hydro issues will likely be the result of training of convection repeatedly across the same areas or locations. Freezing levels are fairly high at 14 kft and PWATS should hover around 1.8-2 inches. However, storm motions are around 15 kts from west to east in general, which is a decent pace but would also be parallel to any boundaries across the region. MLCAPEs of 1500-2000 J/kg will be ample for convection, but effective shear is limited to around 15 kts or lower...which may lead to convection more along the lines of yesterday's pulsers. However, with the surface cold front draped across the area, a few pockets of better environmental shear could be enough to help with more organized convection at times. Consequently our area remains in a marginal risk for severe weather and a few storms could become strong enough to produce mainly damaging winds. UPDATE Issued at 811 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2022 A few elevated showers/thunderstorms have developed in the warm air advection ahead of a cold front entering the state, and will further develop with heating as the front progresses. Forecast is on track, and obs were blended in. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 524 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2022 Early this morning, a cold front was situated just south of Cincinnati, moving slowly southward. Much of the precipitation associated with it on Friday has died out with loss of heating during the night. However, there have been scattered showers developing in the last hour over central KY in the warm air advection regime ahead of the boundary. These may develop into the JKL forecast area during the morning. More substantial development is anticipated after surface based instability materializes during the day. The greatest probability in the JKL forecast area will be in our southern counties, which will still reside south of the front during peak heating. ML CAPE of around 2K J/Kg is expected, and will be supportive of strong updrafts, but they will not be well sustained due to poor organization with a lack of appreciable shear, resulting in largely pulse storms and a possibility of brief localized strong gusts. High precipitable water content and the relatively slow moving nature may result in isolated heavy rainfall. Activity will again be on the decline tonight as heating is lost. With the front nearing the southern edge of the significant westerlies aloft, it will lose momentum as it drops through eastern KY. By late Sunday, it should be near the TN border. This will leave the best shot at precip during peak heating on Sunday over our southern counties, with northern counties expected to be dry as lower dew points arrive. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 333 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2022 Surface high pressure builds in behind the front that moved through the area on Sunday. As the high pressure builds in, the heat and humidity we've been experiencing the last several weeks will build back into the region. The CPC still has the region in above average temperature category for the next few days but also in an above average precipitation category because of the location of the high pressure. With the high forecast to build over the southern Atlantic states, increased moisture feed will allow for diurnal showers and thunderstorms to develop before decreasing in coverage as the day comes to an end. A cold front is forecast to sag into the region mid-week and bring a better and more widespread chance of showers and storms. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like much relief in the way of temperatures. Rain sticks around the region before a another cold front drops into the region for the end of the period bringing another round of showers and storms with actual relief from the heat and humidity. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2022 Other than a short period of MVFR CIGS through the predawn hours tomorrow morning, generally expecting VFR flight conditions through the forecast period. Model guidance suggest a chance of some high end MVFR VISBYs as well. But went more optimistic since areas that receive heavy rainfall will be relatively spread out. Thinking is that guidance was picking up on the possibility of moisture lingering at the surface as a result of late afternoon and evening rainfall, and thus some light mist or fog later during the overnight period. Surface cold front continues to drift southward across the area at a slow pace this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to fire across eastern Kentucky as a result. Bulk of convection is found along and south of the Mountain Parkway and will linger into the evening before diurnal effects take affect and activity dissipates. Definitely could see some gusty winds in the vicinity of the strongest thunderstorms. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable, except with an increasing northeast tendency...which as previously mentioned, will tend to bring in a CIG during the predawn hours. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...RAY SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...RAY
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 440 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-032345- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 440 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible, especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. A few of the storms could produce strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Sunday evening south of the Mountain Parkway. They are possible area wide at times Monday through Friday. Some of the storms could bring isolated heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. RAY/VORST
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
KYZ106-108-109-112-022015-
Breathitt KY-Magoffin KY-Morgan KY-Wolfe KY-
350 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Morgan,
north central Breathitt, northwestern Magoffin and central Wolfe
Counties through 415 PM EDT...
At 350 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Calaboose to Lewis. Movement was southeast at
25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Lewis, Holliday, Caney, Stacy Fork, Well Station, Cannel City,
Malone, Payton, Panama and Lizzielane around 355 PM EDT.
Harper, Lykins, Netty, Burg and Wheel Rim around 400 PM EDT.
Patton, Bethanna, Hager, Epson, Cutuno and Daysboro around 405 PM
EDT.
Gifford, Elsie, Malaga, Kernie, Stella, Lexie, Ova, Lower Gilmore
and Dale around 410 PM EDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Simpson, Paxton,
Gullett, Upper Gilmore, Rosefork, Shockey, Gilmore, Lee City,
Helechawa and Belknap.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3765 8341 3773 8307 3788 8325 3781 8360
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 311DEG 20KT 3777 8354 3783 8324
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
VORSTSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
407 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
KYZ080-085-086-022030-
Whitley KY-Knox KY-Laurel KY-
407 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Laurel,
northwestern Knox and north central Whitley Counties through 430 PM
EDT...
At 406 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
North Corbin, or 11 miles south of London, moving northeast at 10
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Lily around 425 PM EDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Lynn Camp,
McHargue, Gray, Bertha Station, Rossland, Tuttle, Arkle, Knoxfork,
Garrich and Lesbas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3685 8411 3697 8421 3711 8394 3690 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 240DEG 8KT 3696 8409
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
GEERTSONSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
416 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
KYZ107>110-112-022045-
Breathitt KY-Floyd KY-Johnson KY-Magoffin KY-Wolfe KY-
416 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Johnson,
northern Floyd, northern Breathitt, central Magoffin and southeastern
Wolfe Counties through 445 PM EDT...
At 416 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Conley to Vortex. Movement was southeast at 30
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Salyersville, Mason, Ivyton, Riceville, Conley, Bradley, Burning
Fork, Marshallville, Royalton and West Royalton Station around 420
PM EDT.
Swamp Branch, Dobson, Gypsy and Gapville around 425 PM EDT.
Brainard, Bonanza, Fredville, Upper Gilmore and Ordway around 430
PM EDT.
Dotson, Fivemile, Elkatawa, Moct, Shockey and Rosefork around 435
PM EDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Jackson, Dock,
Keck, Blue River, Cliff, Taulbee, Rock Lick, Mountain Valley, Allen,
Haginsville, Noctor, Beaver Junction, Allen City, Dwale, Arkansas,
Stevenson, Banner and Emma.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3759 8261 3754 8341 3771 8360 3773 8328
3771 8326 3774 8325 3776 8290 3763 8260
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 306DEG 28KT 3774 8299 3770 8354
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
VORSTSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
432 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
KYZ111-112-114-022115-
Lee KY-Breathitt KY-Owsley KY-
432 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Owsley,
southwestern Breathitt and central Lee Counties through 515 PM EDT...
At 432 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Maloney, or over Beattyville, moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
St. Helens and Enoch around 435 PM EDT.
Booneville, Monica, Grass, Primrose, Stay, Vada and Williba around
440 PM EDT.
Lone, Tallega, Canyon Falls, Fillmore, Widecreek, Chestnut Gap and
Turin around 445 PM EDT.
Athol, Lerose and Eversole around 450 PM EDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Oakdale, Cowcreek,
War Creek, Copebranch, Jetts Creek, Chenowee, Lawson, Turkey,
Guerrant, Houston, Yeadon, Gentry, Elkatawa, Arnett, Canoe,
Sebastian's Branch, Talbert, Curt, Howard Creek, Crockettsville,
Dumont, Inverness, Dalesburg and Morris Fork.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3754 8381 3769 8368 3755 8331 3737 8346
3738 8348 3735 8350 3734 8351
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 302DEG 18KT 3758 8367
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
GREIFSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
434 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
KYZ058-059-022115-
Estill KY-Powell KY-
434 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Powell and
Estill Counties through 515 PM EDT...
At 434 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wiseman Crossing Station, or near Irvine, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
North Irvine, West Irvine, Spout Springs and Station Camp around
440 PM EDT.
Irvine, Ravenna, Hardwick and South Irvine around 445 PM EDT.
Willow Tree, Cow Creek, Cottage Furnace, Doe Creek, Vaughns Mill
and Wagersville around 450 PM EDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Pitts, Fitchburg,
Furnace, Knowlton, Pryse, Texola, Shade, Cobhill, Patsey, Pilot,
Rogers Chapel, Lombard, See, Natural Bridge S.P., Slade and Nada.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3782 8364 3772 8370 3771 8375 3767 8382
3764 8381 3762 8386 3760 8387 3765 8412
3767 8409 3774 8410 3774 8408 3778 8411
3780 8408 3781 8410 3784 8410 3784 8408
3782 8407 3784 8406
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 278DEG 20KT 3774 8403
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
GREIFSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
444 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
KYZ106-108-109-111-112-022130-
Lee KY-Breathitt KY-Magoffin KY-Morgan KY-Wolfe KY-
444 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Morgan,
northern Breathitt, central Magoffin, east central Lee and central
Wolfe Counties through 530 PM EDT...
At 444 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lexie, or 8 miles east of Campton, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Helechawa, Sellars and Keck around 450 PM EDT.
Rosefork, Shockey, Lee City, Moct, Adele and Taulbee around 455 PM
EDT.
Burkhart, Belknap, Rock Lick and Cannel City around 500 PM EDT.
Other locations in the path of this storm include Cutuno, Wheel Rim,
Mountain Valley, Burg, Bays, Netty, Lykins, Dale, Epson, Hager,
Rousseau, Eugene, Puncheon, Seiltz, Cornelia, Ova, Stella, Kernie,
Bethanna, Guage, Patton, Fritz, Foraker, Gullett, Gifford, Elsie,
Hendricks and Lambric.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3776 8295 3772 8295 3772 8294 3768 8294
3744 8319 3765 8361 3781 8347
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 278DEG 20KT 3771 8340
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
GREIFThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 7 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:56 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Large tree limbs were reported down in the road on Washington Avenue in Jackson.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1025964.