A strong low pressure system was passing along the Canadian border and the Upper Midwest during the day Friday, February 11th. By the afternoon, the associated cold front was nearing the state, and quickly lowering heights aloft led to an increase in SW winds.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A strong low pressure system was passing along the Canadian border and the Upper Midwest during the day Friday, February 11th. By the afternoon, the associated cold front was nearing the state, and quickly lowering heights aloft led to an increase in SW winds. Some of these winds became gusty, and ended up causing some damage to a house near West Liberty, KY.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 11, 1:47 PM EST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 147 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 .UPDATE... Issued at 135 PM EST FRI FEB 11 2022 Hourly grids have been freshened up based on recent observations and trends. Short term hi res models pointed toward stronger gusts than forecast this afternoon, so much of the western and northern portions of the area had a wind advisory hoisted there for some gusts into the 40 to 45 mph range. For the remainder of the area, we continued to roll with the SPS for wind gusts up to 35 mph. In addition to the gusty winds, lingering dryness is leading to observed or forecast rh near or below the 25 percent threshold for most of the area as well, so a Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 6 PM this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 652 AM EST FRI FEB 11 2022 The latest upper level map features a deep low spiraling across Hudson Bay, with troughing extended south through the Mississippi Valley. with ridging aligned across the eastern Pacific. At the surface, retreating high pressure is found across the southeastern CONUS, with deeper low pressure centered across the Great Lakes. A cold front is arced southwest from the low center through the Midwest and into the central/southern Plains, with a secondary arctic boundary positioned across the northern Plains and on into Canada. The models are in good agreement through the short term, with the central CONUS trough being reinforced by inbound short wave energy from south central Canada. This will allow a cold front to sweep southeast through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys early this weekend, bringing some rain shower activity to the region, along with eventually another shot of much colder air. Out ahead of the approaching cold front, breezy and unseasonably warm conditions will take place across eastern Kentucky today. Momentum transfer reveals a good 30 to 35 mph gust potential during peak mixing this afternoon. As such, have hoisted a Lake Wind Advisory, with a Special Weather Statement covering the rest of the counties. Temperatures will soar into the mid 60s, with guidance trending warmer and drier for today. As such, have used the 95th percentile of the NBM guidance for the highs, as well as 5th percentile or less for the dew points. The combination of the low relative humidity and strong winds will bring fire weather concerns. The winds will diminish closer to dusk, with a few showers encroaching on the Bluegrass. The rain showers will spread southeast tonight as the cold front pushes through the area. Lows tonight will range from the lower 30s northwest, to the upper 30s to around 40 southeast. Temperatures will likely fall off during the day on Saturday. Upslope flow will keep a small chance of light precipitation in place through the day; however, the lack of better upper level support precludes from going any higher with the PoPs. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 245 AM EST FRI FEB 11 2022 The long-term period starts with post-frontal passage which will keep temperatures colder as CAA will be present. Lingering upslope snow showers will be possible in the eastern mountain through the day Sunday. Not much chances for an improvement in temperatures for Monday as another system is progged to move through the area. As this clipper dives southeast out of Canada, models have this system bringing slight PoP to the area early Monday morning. The relatively active beginning of the period will give way to dry, cool northwesterly flow transitioning to mild zonal flow through Wednesday night. Models are in agreement for a pattern change for Thursday as zonal flow transitions to southwesterly flow ahead of strong low coming out of Great Plains. Model consensus has this low bringing rain into the area early Thursday afternoon and continuing through the end of the period. With temperatures in the mid-60s, this is expected to be all rain before the cold front moves through early Friday morning and a transition to snow showers in the post- frontal colder air. Models are hinting at this being a very moisture laden system with QPF values relatively high. The GFS and ECMWF are pretty close with over an inch in QPF. Several ensemble members of the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at QPF values over 2 inches which is making this a system to watch the next few days. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI FEB 11 2022 VFR will linger through the first 6 to 9 hours of the period, until two cold fronts drop southeast across the area during the 21Z to 12Z timeframe. This front should lead to increasing low level moisture and showers, with MVFR ceilings developing generally in the 6Z to 12Z period. Once MVFR develops it should generally persist until the end of the period. Gusty southwest winds will remain the primary aviation concern during the first 6 hours of the period. Sustained speeds of 10 to 20 KT are anticipated for the first 4 to 6 hours of the period, and gusts averaging 25 to 35 KT are expected. The gusts will diminish between 22Z and 3Z, with winds veering more towards the west behind the first boundary, and eventually northwest toward 12Z, as the secondary cold front moves through the area. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 PM EST FRI FEB 11 2022 Model guidance has continued with the dry and breezier trend if not a little breezier than earlier runs for this afternoon. The models continue to not quite capture the reality of the low level dryness, and given the OHX local sounding from 00z Friday, drier air will be tapped this afternoon, with many locations likely dipping below 25 percent. Deep mixing looks to allow a small window of 15 mph or higher 20 foot sustained winds, particularly in the broader valleys and ridgetop locations. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph will also occur this afternoon. 10 hour fuel stick moistures also dipped to near or below 8 percent in some locations yesterday, and given another day of drying, feel that more locations will bottom out near or below 8 percent for today. Consequently, have continued with a Red Flag Warning for this afternoon. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for KYZ052-058>060- 068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-104-106-108-111-114. Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for KYZ083>085. && UPDATE...JP SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN LONG TERM...VORST AVIATION...JP FIRE WEATHER...GEOGERIAN/JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 1215 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 KYZ052-058>060-068-069-079-080-104-106-108-111-114-122015- Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel- Elliott-Morgan-Wolfe-Lee-Owsley- Including the cities of Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Campton, Beattyville, and Booneville 1215 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight. Sustained southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph, with wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph are expected at times this afternoon. This will be coupled with low relative humidity to create a high risk of wildfires this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. KYZ086>088-107-109-110-112-113-115>120-122015- Knox-Bell-Harlan-Johnson-Magoffin-Floyd-Breathitt-Knott-Perry- Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Paintsville, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 1215 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight. Sustained southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph, with wind gusts up to 35 mph are expected at times this afternoon. This will be coupled with low relative humidity to create a high risk of wildfires this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. KYZ083>085-122015- Wayne-McCreary-Whitley- Including the cities of Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, and Williamsburg 1215 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight. Sustained southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph, with wind gusts up to 35 mph are expected at times this afternoon. This will be coupled with low relative humidity to create a high risk of wildfires this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. KYZ044-050-051-122015- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, and Owingsville 1215 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight. Sustained southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph, with wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph are expected at times this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. GEOGERIAN/VORST/JP
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson KY 1220 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 KYZ086>088-107-109-110-112-113-115>120-112300- Knox-Bell-Harlan-Johnson-Magoffin-Floyd-Breathitt-Knott-Perry- Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Paintsville, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 1220 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 ...Gusty Southwest Winds Today... Sustained southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph are expected this afternoon, with wind gusts up to 35 mph at times. Winds this strong could blow around any loose, unsecured objects. A few tree limbs could also be blown down and lead to isolated power outages. Additionally, driving could become difficult on east to west oriented roads, especially for high profile vehicles. JP
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson KY 119 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 KYZ044-050-058-059-068-069-104-108-111-114-111930- Fleming-Montgomery-Estill-Powell-Rockcastle-Jackson-Elliott-Wolfe- Lee-Owsley- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Sandy Hook, Campton, Beattyville, and Booneville 119 PM EST Fri Feb 11 2022 ...Gusty Southwest Winds Today... Sustained southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 40 to 45 mph are expected at times this afternoon. Winds this strong could blow around any loose, unsecured objects. Additionally, driving could become difficult on east to west oriented roads, especially for high profile vehicles. A Wind Advisory is in effect until 6 PM this evening. JP
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Some roofing, shingles, and siding damage was reported to a home from gusty winds near West Liberty.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1008924.