An occluded front along the eastern periphery of a strong, broad upper-level cut-off trough centered over the north-central United States, crossed the region after midnight on the 15th. Potent winds within a strong low-level jet stream were mixed down to the surface following the frontal passage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IND wrote it up.
An occluded front along the eastern periphery of a strong, broad upper-level cut-off trough centered over the north-central United States, crossed the region after midnight on the 15th. Potent winds within a strong low-level jet stream were mixed down to the surface following the frontal passage. Wind gusts were generally in the 40 to 55 mph range, but one observation at the KLAF ASOS exceeded 58 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Indianapolis, IN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 15, 12:12 AM EST, 1 hour earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1212 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued at 923 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 Little changes needed for the short term. HRRR was initialized well with widespread showers all the way southwest to near Clarksville Tennessee and Cape Girardeau Missouri. The HRRR takes this back end into our far northeastern counties around 09z with showers exiting as early as Midnight around Vincennes to 2 or 3 AM along the I-74 corridor. 45 knot low level jet, isentropic lift, frontogenesis and synoptic lift from negatively tilted trough and occluded system were all combining to produce areas of moderate rain. With the inversion in place, winds were having a difficult time tapping the low level jet and mixing down, but still think eventually there will be some gusts to 30 mph late this evening and early overnight. Lightning trends don't support adding thunder, but would not completely discount a stray rumble. && .Short Term...(This evening through Thursday) Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 * Rain developing this evening, continuing in to tonight * Gusty winds possible overnight * Cooler temperatures arrive tomorrow Rest of Today Moisture trapped within a low-level inversion has persisted through the day today. Patchy fog, occasional drizzle, and low ceilings have therefore been the theme. Various BUFKIT soundings indicate that the inversion should persist into the evening hours. Temperatures will gradually rise through remainder of the afternoon into tonight as warm air advection and thick cloud cover negate nocturnal cooling. Tonight A deep trough currently resides over the central Plains states, with a closed low over the Dakotas. A shortwave trough rounding the base of the larger-scale trough will pivot northward this evening. As the shortwave amplifies it'll begin to take on a negative tilt. At the surface, a potent LLJ will redevelop allowing moisture to increase from the south. As a result, widespread rainfall is expected to develop as upper-level divergence increases, PVA is maximized, and favorable jet dynamics align over low-level convergence and broad isentropic lift. Rain should begin between 22z-00z, and become more widespread as the night progresses. The axis of the heaviest rain will likely occur along and just to the west of the Illinois border, as that's where the aforementioned dynamics line up best. Further to the east, rain will be a bit more showery in nature. Models show non-zero amounts of CAPE overnight so embedded rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out given how much lift there will be. Aside from the rain, a brief period of gusty winds is also possible overnight. One important thing needs to go right for this to happen. Namely, the low-level inversion has to erode away enough to allow downward momentum transfer to occur. An intensifying surface low associated with the shortwave will move northward out of the Mississippi river valley, which will enhance the LLJ, tighten surface MSLP gradients, and simultaneously increase low-level WAA. Of these, the last one is key for eroding the inversion. The narrow surface warm sector of the low is therefore where the best wind potential lies. Wind gust timing looks to be 00-07z. Gusts should remain well-below advisory threshold, generally 30-40 mph at most. Tomorrow Once the system swings through, winds will shift to southwesterly and drier air moves in. Additionally, strong cold air advection will set in, which will mark the beginning of a long stretch of cooler weather. Breezy conditions persist tomorrow in the better mixed post- frontal atmosphere, but with the low well to our north only expecting gusts around 25mph. && .Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday) Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 Thursday Night Through Saturday. The heavier precipitation will have come to an end Thursday night as the aforementioned strong upper level low pressure system continues to occlude and approach the Great Lakes region. This slow moving low pressure system will keep a fairly persistent forecast in place late Thursday night through Saturday with surface flow generally southwesterly while flow aloft is generally easterly to somewhat northeasterly. Areas of weak to moderate vorticity circling around the low will combine with the residual moisture from the midweek rains and very steep lapse rates near the surface to create occasional flurries through much of the latter portions of the week. Flurries will be most frequent across the northern counties where the upper level forcing will be stronger. Sunday Through Wednesday. The low will finally push away Sunday with zonal flow aloft during the early work week. Temperatures will remain below normal with the lingering cold air aloft and lack of southerly surface flow. The pattern will begin to shift going into Wednesday as the next major weather system nears the area, but there remains a significant amount of uncertainty as to how and when this system will impact the area. Will put low chances for precipitation in, but think the better chances will be Thursday into Friday. Regarding this system, snow is looking probable to likely for portions of the Midwest going into Christmas, but locations, timing, and amounts remain very uncertain. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1212 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 Impacts: * Variable IFR and MVFR ceilings early in the period, giving way to a few hours of MVFR. * VFR will return for a period this morning, but more MVFR ceilings will return this afternoon. * Winds becoming 220-250 early in the period. Some gusts over 30kt are likely early near KLAF with over 25kt possible elsewhere. Discussion: Occluded front will move through early in the period, with some gusty winds and variable ceilings. Ceilings should then settle into MVFR for a period before VFR returns around 12-14Z. However, more MVFR ceilings will return this afternoon in the wrap-around behind the system. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && Update...MK Short Term...Eckhoff Long Term...White Aviation...50
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 320 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-152030- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone- Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam- Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby- Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess- Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon 320 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana. .DAY ONE...Through Tonight. Some wind gusts around 35mph are possible at times tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. && More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1238 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 INZ021-030-031-037>042-045>049-051>057-062>065-071-072-150800- Carroll-Clinton-Howard-Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware- Randolph-Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen- Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur- Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Frankfort, Kokomo, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Seymour, and North Vernon 1238 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 ...GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING... A low pressure system moving through the area will bring wind gusts to around 40 MPH at times through 300 AM EST. Gusts will come first with a front passing through, with additional gusts expected afterward as rain ends. Use caution if traveling early this morning, especially if driving a high profile vehicle. INZ028-029-035-036-043-044-150800- Warren-Tippecanoe-Fountain-Montgomery-Vermillion-Parke- Including the cities of Williamsport, West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma, and Rosedale 1238 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 ...GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING... A low pressure system moving through the area will bring wind gusts to around 45 MPH at times through 300 AM EST. Use caution if traveling early this morning, especially if driving a high profile vehicle.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A 61 mph gradient wind gust was measured by the Purdue University Airport ASOS.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, December 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1062203.