A complex winter storm moved through Northeastern Pennsylvania on the 15th and 16th. Precipitation started out as freezing mix for some areas and snow for others.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BGM wrote it up.
A complex winter storm moved through Northeastern Pennsylvania on the 15th and 16th. Precipitation started out as freezing mix for some areas and snow for others. Any mix became mostly snow during the day of the 15th. Travel conditions became hazardous, especially during the evening commute, as snow accumulated on roadways. Some locations received a break from the snow overnight before it picked back up on the 16th due to a storm moving north along the Atlantic coast. Snow came to an end early on 17th. While most of the highest snowfall totals were east of I-81, there were locations west that also received significant snowfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 15, 9:48 AM EST, 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
948 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A winter storm will impact the region with mixed precipitation
and heavy snow today through Friday night. Following this
system, lake effect snow showers are expected this weekend and
early next week with below average temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
930 am update...
no major changes. Updates to hourly temperatures. Temperatures
in the Wyoming Valley are above freezing now but could fall as
precipitation moves in. Timing for the next few hours is good
but this afternoon may be too fast.
640 AM Update:
No major changes to the near term with this update. Slowed down
precip onset time by around an hour as dry air remains
entrenched over eastern areas today. Otherwise, the latest MRMS
radar and sfc obs show a wintry mix entering the far southwest
portion of our CWA on track; with sleet being reported at
Williamsport, Wellsboro and Olean. Precip still expected to move
in over the next few hours as a mix of sleet and freezing rain.
Temperatures are slowly rising as the clouds thicken early this
morning, but remain very cold north and east of Binghamton in
the 10s currently.
455 AM Update:
A significant winter storm will impact the entire forecast area
through most of the near term period. The entire CWA has been
upgraded to winter storm warnings, which go into effect later this
morning, through late Friday and Friday night in the northeast.
Model trends have been for slightly higher QPF, and colder thermal
profiles as the as the cold air damming wedge remains in place over
the region, then a coastal low takes over during the day on Friday.
Ensemble mean snowfall through 12z Saturday morning from the GEFS,
CMC Ens and ECMWF Ens is between about 8-16 inches across all of
CNY, with the lower amounts over the Finger Lakes and higher end
amounts over the Catskills. For NE PA the ensemble means show
similar numbers for the northern tier counties, fading to 3-10
across the Wyoming Valley counties and along the lower elevations
bordering the Delaware River. The latest 07z NBM showed similar snow
totals, but was much lower in the valleys of the southern tier and
Finger Lakes. This is definitely a complex forecast, as a few
degrees either way at the surface and aloft will make all the
difference in ultimate snow totals reached. Total QPF is high with
this system, ranging from 1 to 1.4" along and west of I-81 to
between 1.5 to 2" east of I-81 through 7 AM Saturday. Therefore, if
profiles can remain sufficiently cold for mainly snow (after a brief
mix today) these higher end snow amounts can certainly be reached.
Digging into the details of the higher resolution deterministic
guidance showed much of the same...with the highest uncertainty in
snowfall totals over the Wyoming Valley region of NE PA and the
western/northern Finger Lakes region. Taking all of this into
consideration, the official forecast has trended quite a bit higher
for snowfall total through 7 AM Saturday with this forecast package.
We now have forecast totals of 9-15 inches along and east of I-81 in
CNY, 5-10 inches west of I-81 in CNY, 7-14 inches across the
northern tier of NE PA and higher elevations of the I-84 corridor,
then fading to 3-6 inches from Tunkhannock south into the rest of
the Wyoming Valley. There will also be some icing from freezing rain
and sleet pellets later today and into tonight from Steuben county
across the Twin Tiers and much of NE PA; highest ice amounts up to
0.20" should be across the higher terrain of western Steuben,
Bradford, Wyoming, Luzerne and Lackawanna counties.
Today: Current MRMS radar loops show precip already overspreading
western PA and sliding steadily off to the north and east. Current
early morning temperatures are cold ranging from the 10s to lower
20s for most locations, with a few mid-20s observed. Dew points are
dry, in the single digits to teens, and this will allow for
additional wet bulb cooling as the precip overspreads the area later
today. Current onset time expectations for the wintry mix range from
7-10 AM west of a Penn Yan--Sayre--Avoca PA line...then by 1PM from
Geneva--Ithaca--Binghamton--Carbondale south/west...then by 4 PM
from Oneida--Oneonta--Monticello west and finally reaching
Cooperstown, Utica and Boonville by 5-7 PM this evening. As the
precip overspreads the area it will initially be an icy mixture of
sleet and freezing rain for any areas west of Geneva--Binghamton
and Carbondale PA, with the highest chances for freezing rain back
to the south and west. This is due to 850mb temperatures initially
around +1C or slightly higher over the region. The warm nose aloft
gradually cools through the day as the precip heads northeast and
wet bulb cooling takes place through the column. The sleet could
reach as far east and north as the Catskills this afternoon, but
just for an hour or two here. Then, with the latest guidance
trending just a touch colder, it now appears just about the entire
CWA changes over to all snow by late afternoon, except perhaps still
some intermittent mixing near Hazleton, Wilkes-Barre and Milford.
The snow could be heavy at times during the afternoon and evening
hours, with top rates of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour possible across
the northern tier of PA north across all of CNY. Surface temperatures
should hover in the upper 20s to lower 30s for most locations
through the day, with perhaps just above freezing readings in
the Wyoming Valley, and lowest locations along the Susquehanna
river valley into the southern tier. East winds pick up between
10- 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph toward evening. Snowfall amounts
by 7 PM look to range from 0.5 to 2.5 inches east of I-81 and
north of Rte 17...then between 2 to 5 inches west of I-81 in CNY
and all of NE PA.
Tonight: Periods of snow continue across much of the CWA as a coast
low develops over the Delmarva region, helping to cut off the warmer
air aloft and at the surface just to our south. With that said,
there still looks to be some mixing with sleet, rain and isolated
pockets of freezing rain at times over night for a good portion of
NE PA and perhaps as far north as the NY/PA border region. Further
north across the rest of CNY mainly all snow is the forecast ptype
overnight, generally light to moderate rates expected after
midnight. Temperatures looks to be nearly steady between 29-35
degrees overnight. Still very breezy east winds expected. Some
uncertainty remains in exact temperatures, QPF and snow amounts
overnight, with the NAM showing less snow and the ECMWF showing
more, as better deformation band takes shape. For now leaned on the
higher side of guidance for snow amounts as the coastal low forming
to the south should allow for better banding to develop. If better
lift and snow do develop, then snow rates could increase. Current
forecast indicates an additional 3-6 inches from 7 PM this evening
until 7 AM Friday morning for all areas...except the Wyoming Valley
where only a trace to 2 inches additional is forecast overnight.
Friday: Most of the latest guidance is trending toward a stronger,
more well defined coastal low tucking in closer to or just south of
KNYC most of the day on Friday. This slow moving coastal low will
bring colder air aloft into the region by mid to late morning and
through the rest of the day. Surface temperatures look to remain
close to the freezing mark for much of the area...except perhaps mid-
30s in the Wyoming Valley and Delaware valley of NE PA. Most guidance
is showing better potential for snow bands, some heavy at times to
continue rotating over the area all day Friday; with the climatologically
favored areas along and east of I-81 likely seeing the highest
QPF/Snow amounts. The NAM/GFS are a bit lighter on QPF this period,
with the 00z ECMWF being much higher. Used NBM/WPC for QPF and
derived snow amounts using a 7-10:1 ratio this period. Even the
00z GFS is showing strong 850-700mb frontogenesis on the NW side
of this low, and impressive omega extending back across the
Catskills just about to I-81. A strong 40-50 kt low level jet at
850mb will aid in bringing in ample Atlantic moisture to the
region on Friday. Some of the HREF members are showing high
banding potential...this will need to be watched closely. East
winds in the morning will turn northerly later in the day, and
should not be as strong. Right now the current forecast calls
for an additional 2-5 inches of snow 7AM Friday to 7 PM, mainly
along and east of I-81 in CNY and northern tier or PA, with
lower amounts back to the west.
Friday night: The coastal low slowly exits off the southern New
England Coast, to a position just east of Cape Cod by daybreak
Saturday. This low track would keep wrap around snow and snow showers
going from Binghamton north and east through at least midnight and
much of the night across the Western Catskills and Mohawk Valley.
Additional snow amounts of 0.5 to 2.5 inches possible north and east
of Binghamton. Otherwise, colder air aloft filters in and overnight
lows dip down into the mid to upper 20s. Winds turn northwest at 5-
15 mph and snow to liquid ratios increase closer to 12:1...there
could even be some minor blowing snow in the rural areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM Update...
The surface low associated with the noreaster moves into the
Gulf of Maine on Saturday with some wrap around snow continuing
across the northern Catskills into the Tug Hill. The snow tapers
off by the early afternoon as cooler and drier air advects in
from the west. With 850 mb temps falling to around -10c and
hovering there through the short term, lake effect snow showers
develop off of Lake Ontario. Boundary layer mean wind direction
is westerly so most of the lake effect precipitation will be
north of our forecast region with just the northern tip of
Oneida county seeing some snow accumulations. Temperatures
through the short term were lowered a bit from model guidance
since there will be fresh snow region wide and much of the
models were trying to get day time highs above freezing. Based
off of forecast soundings, it will be tough to get much if any
day time heating with the low sun angle even for areas that see
the sun.
The noreaster will continue to deepen and retrograde into Maine
on Sunday with the 500 mb low still off to the NW, south of
Hudson Bay. This set up helps sustain the Lake effect snow
Saturday night through Sunday and as a shortwave approaches late
Sunday, reinforcing cold air moves in as well as a more
northwesterly winds that brings the lake effect snow into Oneida
county and northern Onondaga and Madison counties by late
evening. Boundary layer shear does look more favorable for some
better organization of the bands as well as a multi lake
connection. As of now it is a bit too early to speculate on
amounts but there will likely be plowable accumulations.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
4 AM Update...
The long term is looking cold with day time highs staying below
freezing. Once again temperatures in the long term were blended
with the NBM 10th percentile as the modeled highs were too
warm. Temperatures will likely be staying below freezing area
wide with the exception of the Wyoming valley where lower
snowfall totals are expected.
The 500 mb low will be slow to propagate to the east keeping
conditions favorable for lake effect snow off of Lake Ontario
through much of the week. Changes in boundary layer wind
direction will change the location of the bands as weak upper
level shortwaves moves through but with the longevity of the
event, some significant accumulations are possible especially in
Oneida county and to a lesser extent, northern Onondaga and
Madison counties.
Headed into late week, we are still monitoring the potential
for another significant storm as strong ridging in Alaska
coupled with the PNA trending positive will help dislodge very
cold air from Siberia into the central US. With the cold air
digging into the central US, strong baroclinicity will exist on
the east coast so a strong storm will likely form on the east
coast. It is too far out to get into specifics and locations of
impacts but confidence is high for a strong storm. Many Euro
ensemble members have sun 980 mb lows around the mid atlantic
late week clustering from the eastern Great Lakes to off the Mid
Atlantic coast. With the cold air in place, this storm will
have less of a chance of mixed precipitation compared to our
current storm especially with a track that is east of the
region. Upper level flow and a westward propagating Greenland
high would lessen the chance of an inland track of the storm.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR with a cirrus ceiling is expected through 14z this morning.
Ceilings lower quickly from SW to NE after 14-16z this morning
with a wintry mix of snow, sleet and patchy freezing rain
moving southwest to northeast through the day. MVFR conditions
will worsen to IFR restrictions by afternoon as snow or wintry
mix picks up in intensity. Steady moderate snow and IFR to LIFR
conditions are expected areawide starting around 19-21z, except
22z up at RME...and continuing through the end of this taf
period. Some mixed precip could still occasionally mix in at AVP
through the evening and overnight hours, this may allow for
slightly higher vsbys here.
AVP and ELM will also see low level wind shear conditions
develop today into this evening, with 40-45 kts of SE LLWS at 2k
ft agl forecast.
Winds will be light 5-10 kts and out of the E-SE this morning
with gusts up to 25 kts on by this afternoon and evening
expected. East winds 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts expected
tonight.
Outlook...
Friday...IFR or worse restrictions in snow. Still a chance of
sleet, rain or freezing rain, mainly at AVP
Friday night...gradual improvement from southwest to northeast
as the snow tapers to snow showers and ends.
Saturday through Monday...VFR-MVFR with local IFR in scattered
-SHSN off Lake Ontario.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for PAZ038>040-043.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for PAZ044-048-072.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST Friday for PAZ047.
NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ009-018-
036-037.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for NYZ015>017-
022>025-055-056.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ044>046-
057.
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for NYZ062.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JAB/MJM/TAC
NEAR TERM...BJG/MJM/TAC
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...MPK/MJMHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Binghamton NY 338 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 NYZ015>017-022>025-055-056-PAZ038>040-043-160845- Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Steuben-Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Tioga- Broome-Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming- 338 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any information about severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC guidelines. NYZ009-018-036-037-160845- Northern Oneida-Onondaga-Madison-Southern Oneida- 338 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any information about severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC guidelines. NYZ062-PAZ044-048-072-160845- Sullivan-Lackawanna-Pike-Southern Wayne- 338 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any information about severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC guidelines. NYZ044>046-057-160845- Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-Delaware- 338 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any information about severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC guidelines. PAZ047-160845- Luzerne- 338 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Warning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any information about severe weather to the NWS while following local, state and CDC guidelines.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Snow accumulated between 4 and 8 inches.
Snow accumulated between 6 and 10 inches.
Snow accumulated between 4 and 10 inches.
Snow accumulated between 5 and 11 inches.
Snow accumulated between 4 and 8 inches.
Snow accumulated between 6 and 10 inches.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, December 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1063060, 1063063, 1063064, 1063065, 1063061, 1063062.