Isolated thunderstorms formed in the vicinity of a mid-level trough that extended from the Great Lakes region down across the mid-Mississippi Valley. An inverted surface trough from the lower Mississippi Valley to the lower Ohio Valley provided additional support.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Isolated thunderstorms formed in the vicinity of a mid-level trough that extended from the Great Lakes region down across the mid-Mississippi Valley. An inverted surface trough from the lower Mississippi Valley to the lower Ohio Valley provided additional support. Locally heavy rain in the slow-moving storms resulted in isolated minor flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 4, 5:13 AM CST, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 613 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 Slow moving upper low was over the Mid Mississippi Valley region early this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued mainly along and east of the MS River. The general theme will be the same again today through tonight. An increase in coverage is expected through the course of the day, diminishing tonight. Locally heavy rain is once again a concern with PW's at or above 1.8" primarily over southern IL, west KY and southwest IN. Like yesterday it will be hard to pin point favored areas given the wide range of solutions seen in the short term, HiRes data. Convection should progress steadily over west KY into southwest IN on the SE flank of the low, while over southern IL, convection will likely move little in close proximity to the low. Also, like yesterday, not concerned with any marginal severe weather. We are not outlooked and agree with that. Mid level lapse rates are once again o.k. for some lightning, but otherwise poor, hindered also by a decent amount of mid level moisture and a deep warm cloud layer on the order of 4000m (Frzlvl-LCL). The overall mean flow is weak as well (slightly better over west KY). The focus for convection Labor Day should be a little farther north (of the Ohio) from southern IL into southwest IN, and the KY Pennyrile region. Drier air works in across SEMO and far west KY, reducing the likelihood of anything more than isolated weak convection. Then from Monday night through Tuesday night, we transition back to a chance anywhere from time to time. We stayed fairly close to the NBM for temperatures. Not enough confidence with the clouds and convective influence to deviate much from a blend. We saw this play out yesterday with highs from the upper 70s some areas to mid to upper 80s elsewhere. There should be a little more uniformity today. Like yesterday we steered the overall forecast toward the HREF and NBM output. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 The long term forecast period continues to feature a shortwave trough over the Lower Ohio/Mississippi River Valleys pinned between a large ridge over the Western U.S. and a ridge over the Southeast coast. Midweek, ensembles are in moderately high agreement on a 500 mb low dropping towards the Lower Mississippi and many form a closed low, with the GFS ensemble merely a little less aggressive with closing off the low. Daily chances of showers and storms will continue through the rest of the week into the weekend. The lowest rain chance is Thursday as northeasterly flow from high pressure moving across the Great Lakes and the likely timing of the southernmost location of the closed low shifts convergence areas a little further south. Otherwise, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hours, with decreasing rain and thunder potential late evening through the morning. Winds shift towards easterly Friday as rain chances improve. Moisture levels will be slightly above normal at 1.5-1.75 inches but below the 90th percentile for PW. The tendency for slower moving storms can result in locally heavy rainfall. Model confidence is fairly high for the long term forecast period, with the 25th-75th percentile spread for high temperatures only around 5 degrees and slightly lower than that for lows. Highs are likely to be in the low to mid 80s with lows mainly in the mid-60s. && .AVIATION... Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 With the presence of an upper level disturbance over the region today through Labor Day, the forecast will be very challenging, with highly variable conditions. A fairly large area of MVFR/IFR conditions developed early this morning. Still mostly VFR across the KY Pennyrile region. Conditions should improve some through the day as we warm up, and mix out just a bit. Showers will be scattered to numerous again today, especially along and east of the MS River. Wind will not be much of a factor at all, light for the most part. Conditions may go down again tonight, returning to MVFR/IFR as cigs lower again and some restriction in visibility develops. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...CN LONG TERM....ATL AVIATION...CN
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 304 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-051000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 304 AM CDT Sun Sep 4 2022 /404 AM EDT Sun Sep 4 2022/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue today through tonight. Heavy rain is possible again today through this evening, which may lead to localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday There is a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms may produce locally heavy rain and isolated instances of flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report in with rainfall amounts and any observed flooding. CN
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Standing water was reported on eastbound Interstate 64 between Woodlawn and Mt. Vernon, as well as southbound Interstate 57 at the Interstate 64 interchange south of Mt. Vernon. Both spots are typical flood-prone areas.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, September 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1051747.