Damaging Winds in California, September 4, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1241 PM PDT Sun Sep 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Very hot conditions will continue through the middle
of next week before temperatures moderate and moisture increases
next weekend. In the meantime, a few isolated storms are possible
today mainly in northwest Arizona, with drier conditions to follow
for most of next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday.

Any thunderstorms and outflow winds that develop this afternoon will
end after sunset, with quiet but mild weather expected overnight.
Tonight and Monday the main area of high pressure shifts east and
and starts to build back over the region, which will scour out any
moisture and thus end afternoon thunderstorm chances. PWATs decrease
through Monday and CAPE Monday afternoon is progged to be much lower
across the region than it is has been these past couple of
afternoons. A few hi-res models try to develop something in the
higher terrain of the southern Great Basin as well as southwest
Utah, but these storms will struggle given the upper level
increasing heights.

Continued dry conditions should persist through Thursday. With
decreasing moisture comes increasing temperatures. The area of high
pressure is expected to sit firmly in place over eastern Nevada and
southern Utah as it strengthens through much of the week. On Tuesday
and Wednesday, expecting upper level heights 2 to 3 standard
deviations above normal with a nearly 600dm high shown on models.
The excessive heat warning continues as there is high confidence for
well above normal temperatures through Wednesday. With very warm
overnight lows and how long this extreme heat will be in place,
extreme heat risk and dangerous conditions are likely. The excessive
heat warning may need to be extended into Thursday, but will hold
off for now as it is uncertain how incoming systems will interact
with the area of high pressure and when they will knock back the
ridge. Given the strength of this high and past experience- strong
high pressure tends to win out and hold on longer than long range
models tend to show (which we have been seeing as models keep
trending longer with this heatwave).

.LONG TERM...Thursday through the Weekend.

Friday into next weekend is looking promising for a tropical system
developing along the coast of Mexico to be drawn up near northern
Baja and southern California along the southwest periphery of the
high pressure which will be nudged near the Four Corners Region.
This would bring the potential for considerable tropical moisture
spreading into our region and this is reflected in the latest
ensemble-based NBM. The gridded temperature forecast pulls highs
down 10-15 degrees Friday and Saturday while chances for
precipitation increase to 20-40 percent Saturday and Sunday. While
this scenario is far from certain, the latest ECMWF and GEFS
ensemble means are in quite good agreement with the high moving to
the east and the tropical circulation near northern Baja which would
open the door for the influx of moisture. We will continue to watch
for this possibility while we wait for the heat to break.

&&

MAX HIGH        SUNDAY, SEP 4     MONDAY, SEP 5     TUESDAY, SEP 6
                Record(Yr)/Fcst   Record(Yr)/Fcst   Record(Yr)/Fcst

Las Vegas        111(1947)/107    112(2020)/108     114(2020)/110
Bishop           107(2020)/103    105(2020)/105     104(2020)/106
Needles          117(2020)/109    119(2020)/110     120(2020)/112
Barstow-Daggett  113(2020)/106    114(2020)/110     116(2020)/111
Kingman          107(2020)/99     109(2020)/101     110(2020)/103
Desert Rock      109(2020)/103    107(2020)/105     109(2020)/108
Death Valley     122(2020)/119    125(2020)/122     123(2020)/124

The table below shows the record warm low temperature, the year the
record was last set, and the forecast temperature for all of our
climate sites.

WARM LOW        SUNDAY, SEP 4    MONDAY, SEP 5      TUESDAY, SEP 6
                Record(Yr)/Fcst  Record(Yr)/Fcst    Record(Yr)/Fcst

Las Vegas        84(2007)/85      86(2019)/86       84(2020)/86
Bishop           64(2014)/63      61(1984)/61       61(1950)/62
Needles          89(2007)/83      91(2001)/84       99(2019)/85
Barstow-Daggett  80(2017)/82      82(1984)/83       82(2016)/83
Kingman          76(1982)/72      75(2007)/74       77(1917)/75
Desert Rock      79(1996)/79      78(2002)/78       78(1989)/79
Death Valley     100(2007)/96     95(2013)/95       96(2013)/95

&&
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Isolated thunderstorms later this
afternoon and evening will be located in far southern Clark, Mohave
and eastern San Bernardino Counties. Winds in the valley will favor
an easterly direction during max heating. Still some uncertainty in
the forecast this evening. There is some agreement in models showing
an outflow boundary reaching the valley around 03Z this evening.
Quite a bit more uncertainty in the magnitude of the wind though.
For now, forecast does call for a shift to the southeast with speeds
up to 12 kts. Of course, will have a better handle on the situation
once storms develop. Wind regime into Labor Day favors the typical
downvalley direction late tonight becoming light and variable
tomorrow morning. As temperatures warm Labor Day an easterly
direction will develop up to 9 kts. Isold shower/thunderstorm
possible west and north of Las Vegas Labor Day. FEW-SCT clouds
around 12-15 kft during the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Convective allowing models show isolated
showers/thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain of northwest
Arizona this afternoon. Storms move into the lower Colorado River
Valley and eastern San Bernardino County between 00Z and 04Z this
evening. KIFP and KEED most at risk of seeing impacts from gusty
outflow winds. Anticipate last of the thunderstorms to dissipate
over San Bernardino County by 06Z. Winds overnight will favor
typical downslope directions with speeds becoming upvalley Labor Day
with speeds generally less than 10 kts. The exception will be in the
Owens Valley around KBIH where south wind gusts up to 20 kts
possible. Isold showers/thunderstorms possible west and north of Las
Vegas Labor Day. FEW-SCT clouds around 12-15 kft during the period.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Pierce

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