With plenty of instability and large scale support as a shortwave moved through the region, a line of showers and storms developed and moved east through the region. Some of the storms produced damaging winds.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
With plenty of instability and large scale support as a shortwave moved through the region, a line of showers and storms developed and moved east through the region. Some of the storms produced damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 25, 1:28 PM CST, 1 hour 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 228 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022 .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night) Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022 With breaks developing in the overcast, especially along and east of the Mississippi River early this afternoon, latest SPC mesoscale analysis is indicating surface based CAPEs are already approaching 1000-2000 J/kg as of 19z. So the combination of sufficient surface based CAPE and modest large scale support as a shortwave slides east through the region, has lead to the development of a line of storms over south central Missouri. This line will move through the forecast area between 19z and 24z. Also, SPC mesoscale analysis is indicating 0-3km bulk shear of 30 to 35 kts, so this combined with slightly backed surface winds, could cause a few storms to rotate as they move through the region this afternoon. As for any hail or damaging winds chances, lapse rates remain rather minimal and deep layer shear is fairly weak, so only have a marginal threat of damaging winds and/or hail with these storms. Once this activity exits the region early this evening, timing of additional rounds of showers and storms is still hard to pin down at this time as the upper level low slowly makes its way through the forecast area. So just kept the latest NBM solution for POPs through Thursday night. Overnight lows tonight will be rather mild, in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Highs on Thursday will be a bit below normal in the mid 60s to low 70s, then even colder air will filter in Thursday night with lows in the 50s. Byrd .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022 The upper level low will finally push to the east of the forecast area by Friday evening. In the meantime, scattered showers and a few storms are still possible during the day on Friday, especially east of Mississippi River. Otherwise, another cool day expected with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s, a bit below normal for this time of year. Still expect upper level ridging will build in over the region beginning Saturday. The latest NAEFS/GEFS climatological 850mb mean values are even higher, closer to 99th percentile on Sunday and Monday. Thus feel that latest NBM solution for surface temperatures, especially Sunday through Monday are a tad too low. Will leave as is for now and keep eye out on future model/ensemble runs to see if this trend with 850mb temperatures continues with even warmer temperatures warranted during this period. Beyond Monday, the latest deterministic and ensemble solutions have timing differences on an eventual pattern change late next week. For now dry and warmer conditions will persist through next Wednesday. Byrd && .AVIATION... (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning) Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022 Low pressure will push into the region over the next 30 hours, making for a complex aviation forecast. First up, and band of showers is pushing north through the region is expected to exit the area late this morning. Meanwhile cigs are a bit all over the place this morning, with borderline MVFR/IFR conditions at COU/JEF/UIN and borderline MVFR/VFR conditions in the St. Louis metro. On and off showers will continue through the duration of the TAFs, but by and large, it's difficult to pin down the exact precipitation timing. The exception is this afternoon, when there is increasing confidence that a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move northeast through the region. Therefore I've included a tempo group at most of the terminals to account for this. Otherwise I've largely left any precipitation out of the TAFs given low confidence on anything impacting the terminals. This morning's low cigs will gradually rise, reaching VFR conditions by this afternoon. Cigs should remain at VFR levels until this evening when they begin to come back down. I'm not certain just how low overnight cigs will fall, so I've leaned on a more optimistic solution given the low bias in recent cig forecasts. BSH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Saint Louis 64 71 56 70 / 70 90 70 30 Quincy 59 68 55 69 / 30 80 60 20 Columbia 57 66 53 72 / 30 90 50 10 Jefferson City 57 66 53 72 / 40 90 50 5 Salem 64 73 56 71 / 90 90 60 50 Farmington 60 69 53 70 / 70 90 50 20 && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. IL...None. && WFO LSX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Saint Louis MO 251 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-261200- Adams IL-Audrain MO-Bond IL-Boone MO-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Callaway MO- Clinton IL-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Fayette IL-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO- Greene IL-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Jersey IL-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO- Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Madison MO-Marion IL-Marion MO-Moniteau MO- Monroe IL-Monroe MO-Montgomery IL-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike IL- Pike MO-Ralls MO-Randolph IL-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO- Saint Clair-Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO- Sainte Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington IL-Washington MO- 251 PM CDT Wed May 25 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through tonight. There is a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms through early this evening. The main threats are damaging winds to 60 mph and isolated tornadoes. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is a chance for thunderstorms Thursday through Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed through early this evening. Byrd
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 64 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:28 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds snapped a large tree at its base.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several large tree limbs.
A twelve inch diameter maple tree top was snapped off.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1028189, 1028190, 1028192.