Tornado and Damaging Winds in Alabama, May 25, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
858 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 858 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

MCS continues to spread northward through AL this morning. The
eastern flank of the MCS has a line of thunderstorms which will
likely move into northeast AL over the next 1-2 hours. Our western
counties may have less rainfall coverage this morning. However, will
not adjust PoPs much at this point given additional convection
developing in MS. Afternoon heating may also contribute to new
development as well. Not overly concerned about the severe weather
threat, unless stronger instability can take place in our western
counties this afternoon. This is also where better low level and deep
layer bulk shear and helicity is present. Agree with the SPC shift of
the 2% tornado probability area to our far western counties, and
confidence remains low on this threat.

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

The threat for heavy rainfall continues tonight. Model guidance
continues to indicate that the residual MCS from last night's
convection in Texas will weaken or dissipate over the TN Valley
this evening, but I will maintain some healthy skepticism and
continue rain chances overnight. After a brief and welcomed break
in rainfall early tonight to allow some drainage, there is a
better signal is a reinvigorated line of thunderstorms forming
over the Lower Mississippi Valley late tonight. This overnight
line will be our best shot at severe weather, as there is better
synoptic-scale support for lift and shear to organize convection,
although it is still a low threat for severe with low confidence
at this time. Timing the overnight line is difficult, as it has
yet to form, but the most likely window is from 5 AM in northwest
Alabama to 12 PM (noon) in northeast Alabama. Gusty to damaging
winds and hail are the primary threats. Weak CAD to our northeast
will back winds over northeast Alabama, enhancing the SRH in this
region and creating a low chance for a tornado or two across the
broader Southeast region.

The primary threat will be heavy rainfall and localized flooding,
as widespread 2-3" of rain are anticipated in the next 24-36
hours with localized totals up to 3-5" of rain. Confidence in
location of these larger totals was too low to warrant a flood
watch on this shift, but it is something to monitor moving
forward. Experimental hydrographs from NASA SPoRT indicate area
rivers and streams may rise into action to minor flood stage.

The cold front will gradually push through the TN Valley tomorrow
night behind the line of storms. The cutoff low aloft will take
its time pushing through the Ohio Valley, which will cause wrap
around moisture to track back into the TN Valley tomorrow night
into Friday morning with isolated showers and thunderstorms
possible. High temperatures remain in the low to mid 70s both
Thursday and Friday due to the anticipated rainfall.

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

After a rainy week, we dry out Friday night just in time for the
weekend. The Southeast will be sandwiched between strong ridging
over the Northeast and a subtropical jet to our south. Fortunately
for us, surface high pressure will control our weather for the
extended portion of the forecast. Underneath mostly clear skies,
high temperatures will warm from the upper 70s to low 80s on
Saturday into the low 90s on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

An area of widespread showers and a few thunderstorms is racing
northward from Central AL and expected to impact terminals 13-14Z
this morning and reduce visibility and cigs to MVFR/IFR
conditions. Another round of showers and storms is expected to
approach from the west this afternoon and evening, which may bring
gusty winds and potential severe storms. Timing is low
confidence, so amendments will be possible. Lastly, a third round
of storms will approach near the end of the TAF period, impacting
MSL 09-10Z and approaching HSV just after the TAF period. This is
a day where there will likely be many AWWs. Otherwise, gusty
southeast to south winds will reach 25-30 kts at times late this
morning and this afternoon.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
447 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-261000-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-DeKalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
447 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Alabama,
northeast Alabama, northwest Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Multiple rounds of numerous showers and thunderstorms will
overspread the TN Valley this morning and periodically continue
through tonight. A few storms may become strong to severe with gusty
winds and small hail as the primary threats. There is a low chance
for a tornado, but there is low confidence in this. Heavy rainfall
may lead to isolated flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Showers and storms continue Thursday morning with a few severe
storms possible with gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall.
Widespread 2-3" of rain are expected over the next two days with
isolated totals up to 3-5" possible. There is also a low threat for a
tornado or two tomorrow morning, but confidence remains low.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon which should not
become strong or severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1009 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

ALZ008>010-251600-
Marshall AL-DeKalb AL-Jackson AL-
1009 AM CDT Wed May 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Jackson, eastern Marshall and southwestern DeKalb Counties through
1100 AM CDT...

At 1008 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sardis City, or near Boaz, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Albertville, Scottsboro, Fort Payne, Boaz, Guntersville, Rainsville,
Henagar, Crossville, Sylvania and Fyffe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3420 8586 3420 8611 3419 8611 3418 8619
      3414 8625 3413 8627 3467 8622 3461 8568
TIME...MOT...LOC 1508Z 196DEG 36KT 3418 8610

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JMS