Wildfire in Idaho, July 22 to 23, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
218 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2022

.SHORT TERM...Today and Saturday. High pressure ridging has
weakened and moved east as a shortwave trough is starting to move
into the area. Winds have started to pick up and will peak around
3 to 6 pm and then start falling off by 8 pm. These stronger
winds combined with critical relative humidity will lead to
widespread Fire Weather concerns. Red Flag warnings remain in
effect. See fire discussion and Red Flag warning for more details.
Winds will be close to lake wind advisory (sustained of 20 mph),
especially the northern part of the lake around 4 to 7 pm. Also,
winds will be close to wind advisory (sustained of 30 to 39
mph)for the Arco desert.This system has little moisture with it.
Not expecting any thunderstorms in our northwest areas and Snake
plain. Due to lingering monsoon moisture, isolated thunderstorms
are possible mainly for our Southeast areas and to a lesser degree
along our western Utah border and northern Wyoming border. These
thunderstorms could produce gusts up to around 45 mph, especially
in our extreme southeast area by Bear lake. Winds will be breezy
again on Saturday afternoon, especially for our northern areas,
due to another weak short wave expected Saturday evening into
Sunday morning. Winds will gust to around 20 mph for ridges
Saturday, close to Red Flag criteria. Expect hot temperatures
today, around 8 to 12 degrees above normal. Look for low to mid
90s in valleys and 80s in mountains today. Temperatures will still
be hot on Saturday but drop 3 to 5 degrees over today.
Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Friday.
The region will be under predominately zonal flow for the first
couple days of the extended, with breezy conditions expected.  High
pressure will begin to build in over the region Wednesday afternoon,
with only very slight chances for showers and thunderstorms existing
daily across the eastern extent of our region.  Have held with NBM
PoPs, which at this time are 20% or less and are confined to the
eastern and southeastern highlands each afternoon/evening.
Temperatures will start off in the low 90s across the Snake River
Plain and Eastern Magic Valley, with 70s and 80s elsewhere.  Max
temps will generally climb gradually throughout the extended period,
reaching the mid to upper 90s in some locations by the end of next
week.
Cropp

&&

.AVIATION...Upper ridge breaks down today as a disturbance moves
through, bringing elevated winds to the region and isolated
thunderstorms to the far SE corner of the region. At this time,
thunderstorms do not look to affect terminals. Mostly clear skies
to start off the day but should start to see mid-level clouds
filtering in across southeast Idaho beginning mid-afternoon. Winds
will begin to increase shortly after noon and subside close to
sunset, with 10-20 kts sustained west/southwest winds and gusts up
to 30 kts expected at all terminals.
Cropp

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A shortwave trough is starting to move through the
area, which is increasing winds. This wind, 15 to 25 mph with
gusts of 25 to 35 mph, combined with critical relative humidity,
widespread below 15 percent, will bring critical fire weather
conditions warranting red flag warnings today until 2100 or 9 pm
for fire weather zones 410, 422 below 6000 ft, 425, 427, 475, and
476. Localized higher gusts of 35 to 40 mph are likely for the
Central mtns ridgetops and the Arco desert out in the Snake Plain.
Lingering monsoon moisture will help trigger isolated
thunderstorms especially for fire zone 413 and to a lesser degree
zones 427 and 411. Wetting rain chances are low, less than 10
percent in general. The biggest impacts will be lightning and
gusty outflows around 40 to 45 mph, especially near Bear Lake.
Temperatures will continue to be hot today, 8 to 12 degrees above
normal.

Temperatures drop slightly on Saturday but will still be 3 to 6
degrees above normal. The flow will remain mostly zonal aloft
Saturday and Sunday. A weak short wave passing to the north will
keep winds elevated Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Winds look to
be around 20 mph gusts but could rise Saturday and Sunday, which
could warrant additional red flag warnings (especially for
northern Central mtns). Thunderstorms look to remain just east and
north of our area both Saturday and Sunday. Look for high
pressure ridging to gradually build back in Monday through next
week. This will continue to bring very dry conditions and above
normal temperatures.
Wyatt

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-422-425-
427-475-476.

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