Drought in Hawaii, June 14 to 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
808 PM HST Mon Jun 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Locally breezy trades will focus clouds and showers over windward
areas through the week. An increase in showers is expected
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Stable and locally breezy trades will continue for the next 24 hours
or so, ushering occasional batches of trade wind showers over
windward zones with little fanfare. Leeward zones with remain mostly
dry tonight with a sparse coverage of very light showers expected.

By Tuesday night, the well-advertised mid-level trough will become
established over central and western portions of the state eroding
the inversion and allowing showers to grow in depth as stability
diminishes. This adjustment to the resident stability profile will
occur coincident with the arrival of a shallow pool of remnant
frontal moisture that will take until Thursday to fully work through
the forecast area. During this time, trades will slightly weaken as
they deliver increased showers, some moderate in intensity, to
windward zones. Likewise, more frequent leeward showers can be
expected, especially overnight and in the morning.

Forecast soundings indicate that stability will be slow to return in
the wake of the departing upper low late this week. Thus, another
round of increased trade wind showers will be possible late Friday
into Saturday as another batch of low-level moisture works through
the area. Overall messaging is that Wednesday through the first half
of the weekend will be characterized by normal to wetter-than-
normal trades.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure north of the state will support breezy to locally
strong trade winds, with clouds and showers favoring windward
coasts and slopes. Shower coverage overnight could increase to
the point that AIRMET SIERRA for mountain obscuration may be
necessary.

AIRMET TANGO remains posted for TEMPO low-level turbulence over
and immediately south through west of all islands below 8000 ft.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to locally strong trade winds are expected to continue
through the end of the week due to high pressure north of the
islands. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect through
Tuesday night for the typical windier waters near Maui County and
the Big Island. Although winds are expected to weaken a bit during
the second half of the week, winds will likely remain strong
enough to support an SCA for these waters. The high looks to
sink southward over the weekend, which will likely cause the winds
to veer somewhat to a more southeasterly direction, but time will
tell how much of an impact that will have on wind speeds.

Rough, choppy surf is expected along east facing shores through
the week from the locally generated wind waves. The current small,
west-northwest swell will continue to decline over the next couple
of days. A slightly larger, and longer period northwest swell
will build Thursday night and continue through the weekend,
boosting swell along exposed swell. Overlapping background south
swells will continue to keep small surf heights along south facing
shores through Wednesday. A slightly larger, long period
southwest swell generated from the Tasman Sea basin will arrive on
Thursday, elevating south shore surf through next weekend.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Thomas/Ahue
MARINE...M Ballard