What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 30, 1:39 PM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 30, 1:39 PM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
239 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front aligned from west to east across our region will
be the focus for abundant moisture and numerous afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms this weekend. This front will
begin to move north on Sunday as a warm front. The front should
dissipate by Tuesday, with high pressure over the western Atlantic
taking control of our weather for the rest of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 pm EDT: Visible satellite imagery shows more breaks this
afternoon, which is permitting SBCAPE values to climb to 2500-3000
J/kg around the southeast and southern periphery of the area.
Elsewhere, instability remain a bit more muted by the earlier clouds
and the warm profiles aloft. However, the existing synoptic scale
frontal boundary already draped across the area will combine with
differential heating boundaries to supply ample forcing for late
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The warm and moist
profiles will cap the instability somewhat through late day, and
downdraft CAPE values will also be fairly modest. Thus, the severe
storm potential is rather limited. Hydro issues could pose a problem
with any training of cells given the 2+ inch PWAT air, but model
signals are mixed on any southerly flow yielding anchoring near the
high terrain. If that happens, the peak hydro threat could be late
this evening, but the convection-allowing models have limited
coverage after midnight. Confidence thus remains too low to post any
Flash Flood Watches. Expect another very mild night with mins a
couple of categories above normal. Patchy fog will develop in places
where clouds scatter.
The weak boundary stalled across the region will likely drift back
northward to the northern tier of the area through Sunday.
Precipitable water values will remain over 2 inches. It is
conceivable that steering flow will be a bit better on Sunday, but
low MBE velocities will likely still contribute to some measure of
backbuilding and training of cells. An elevated hydro threat will
persist, while the severe threat will remain rather minimal. Clouds
should keep temperatures below climate normals Sunday afternoon.
Again, we expect to post no Flood Watches this afternoon until we
see how much rain falls through this evening and how antecedent
conditions shape up for tomorrow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday: As a 500mb trough sharpens over the
Great Lakes on Monday, a series of vort lobes will ripple across
the Carolinas on its periphery, embedded in otherwise unamplified
flow aloft. Bermuda High will remain in place in the western
Atlantic, allowing south/southwest flow to continue to drive
a robust moisture flux across most of the forecast area, as a
quasi-stationary front somewhere near the NC-VA border retreats
ever-so-slightly northward in response to the aforementioned
upper-level forcing. By Tuesday, as the sharpening trough over
the Midwest begins to exert its influence on the Carolinas, this
boundary will retreat farther north, with some guidance depicting
weak cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday.
Generic thunder risk is expected both afternoons. Deterministic
guidance depicts in the neighborhood of 1000-1400 J/kg and
negligible deep-layer shear across much of the forecast area
(notwithstanding anomalously low instability across the Upstate in
the latest GFS), while SREF plumes and the GEM's spread parameter
are indicative of fairly good confidence on these values. Better
conditions are forecast for Tuesday as improving low-level moisture
allows instability and expected convective coverage to soar,
but with markedly lower confidence owing to uncertainty over the
timing of best forcing aloft and the resultant evolution of the
surface boundary through the day.
Of perhaps greater concern is the heavy rainfall threat Monday.
The overarching setup is almost a classic Maddox heavy rain pattern,
with synoptically-driven southerly WAA allowing moisture to pool on
the warm side of the stationary front at the NC-VA border. Enough
instability should be present to drive scattered convection,
and these storms will develop in a deeply-moist environment,
with precipitable water values outside the mountains crawling
into the 1.8-2.1" range, a deep warm cloud depth permitting
efficience rain production, and weak steering flow allowing for
slow-moving storms. So, while not all places will receive rain,
those that do can expect to receive quite a bit. By Tuesday,
the risk will diminish as the boundary lifts north and steering
flow improves with the sharpening trough aloft.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Saturday: Not much change to the extended
forecast this afternoon. Normal summertime pattern resumes for
the remainder of the period. The passage of a trough axis aloft
late Tuesday will result in a measure of drying at the midlevels,
allowing precipitable water to fall and heavy rain/flood risk along
with it. Surface-based instability will climb back to a seasonable
~1500 J/kg each afternoon, fueling typical diurnal thunderstorm
coverage through the evening hours. Deterministic guidance is
still hemming and hawing on the arrival of a shortwave on Friday -
the feature is present in the latest CMC as well as a handful of
GEFS members, yet absent in most other guidance. In any case,
general thunder risk looks warranted through lateweek and into the
weekend, with locally heavy rain but no elevated severe or flash
flood risk apparent at this time.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions continue late this afternoon
through this evening, except under any heavy showers or
thunderstorms where visibility should quickly go IFR given the moist
profiles. Timing of the better convection will center around 21Z to
01Z at KCLT, and perhaps an hour earlier at the mountain/foothill
sites. Fairly light winds will turn around the dial through the
period, with mainly northerly flow early becoming more southerly
overnight into Sunday. Brief and variable gusts will be possible
near any thunderstorms. Abundant low-level moisture should lead to
developing MVFR then IFR ceilings before daybreak sunday, with LIFR
cigs quite possible at KAVL and KHKY. Showers could persist through
the night, especially from KAVL to KHKY, but with less intensity.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage will return mid to late Sunday
morning through the afternoon as a frontal boundary lifts north of
the area.
Outlook: Numerous, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will continue
through early next week. A more typical summertime pattern will
return by mid-week. Fog and low stratus may develop each morning in
the mtn valleys and wherever appreciable rain has fallen the
previous day.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...HG
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 30, 5:48 AM EST, 10 hours 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
648 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-311100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
648 AM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area this
afternoon and evening, some with frequent cloud-to-ground lightning,
gusty winds, and torrential downpours. An isolated severe
thunderstorm with damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Localized
flash flooding will also be possible if several storms move over one
place in quick succession. The storms may not diminish until the
early morning hours on Sunday.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
A localized risk of flash flooding will accompany any thunderstorms
that develop over the next few days. This threat could gradually
increase in scope as soils in more places become saturated from
multiple rounds of heavy rain and creeks and stream levels rise in
response to continued runoff.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
PM
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 30, 1:09 PM EST, 2 hours 56 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
209 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022
NCZ062-301845-
Macon NC-
209 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Macon County
through 245 PM EDT...
At 208 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Franklin, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Franklin, Ellijay, Scaly Mountain, Burningtown, Otto, Cullasaja and
Rainbow Springs.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3524 8353 3524 8329 3523 8328 3523 8325
3524 8324 3524 8322 3521 8322 3519 8323
3516 8322 3515 8322 3500 8325 3499 8331
3506 8356
TIME...MOT...LOC 1808Z 277DEG 11KT 3514 8346
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
HGSpecial weather statement, Jul 30, 2:38 PM EST, 1 hour 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
338 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022
SCZ012-302015-
Laurens SC-
338 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
LAURENS COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM EDT...
At 338 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall near Laurens, moving east at 10 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Laurens, Clinton, Ora and Hickory Tavern.
Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.
LAT...LON 3441 8214 3452 8218 3462 8194 3439 8187
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 256DEG 7KT 3449 8209
WJM
Special weather statement, Jul 30, 2:44 PM EST, 1 hour 21 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
344 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022
SCZ012-019-302015-
Laurens SC-Greenwood SC-
344 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Laurens
and northeastern Greenwood Counties through 415 PM EDT...
At 344 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Greenwood, or 4 miles west of Waterloo, moving east at
10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Cross Hill, Cokesbury, Waterloo, Lake Greenwood, Greenwood State
Park, Coronaca and Mountville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3425 8223 3443 8222 3446 8193 3419 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 272DEG 8KT 3434 8214
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
WJMSpecial weather statement, Jul 30, 3:27 PM EST, 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
427 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022
SCZ009-014-302100-
York SC-Chester SC-
427 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022
...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT NORTHERN
CHESTER AND SOUTH CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...
At 426 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall near Chester, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Chester, Rock Hill, Lowrys, Chester State Park, Richburg, Mcconnells,
Newport and Edgemoor.
Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.
LAT...LON 3463 8128 3472 8137 3497 8110 3476 8090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 232DEG 20KT 3471 8125
WJM
Special weather statement, Jul 30, 3:50 PM EST, 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
450 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022
SCZ010-011-302115-
Abbeville SC-Anderson SC-
450 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Anderson and central Abbeville Counties through 515 PM EDT...
At 450 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Anderson, or 6 miles east of Starr, moving east at 20
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Anderson, Homeland Park, Belton, Iva, Lake Secession, Starr,
Antreville and Broadway Lake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3428 8277 3429 8277 3444 8281 3458 8245
3425 8239
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 259DEG 18KT 3438 8259
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
WJM