Abundant monsoon moisture remained over the Four Corners region. This led to another round of showers and thunderstorms across southeast Utah.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Abundant monsoon moisture remained over the Four Corners region. This led to another round of showers and thunderstorms across southeast Utah. Storms were slow moving and produced heavy rain. A debris flow occurred on the Pack Creek Fire burn scar as a result of a large amount of heavy rain in a short period of time.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 30, 10:38 AM MST, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1138 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 403 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Not a lot of clouds in the clean window across the northern states and in the Pacific Northwest to initialize the models, but water vapor does help. The low is dropping down out of the Gulf of Alaska to off the coast of the Pacific northwest. The subtropical high across the Southern States remains in place with two peaks; one over western Tennessee and northern Mississippi; the second over the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico. The high over the Great Basin remains in place pulling a drier air mass in from the Northwest and is limiting the shower and thunderstorm activity in northeastern Utah and northwestern Colorado. Though there are clouds over the Grand Valley, they are evaporating rapidly under the influence of the Great Basin high. The jet streak supporting the trough over the Great Lakes has moved off over New England taking the upper level support for convection (the right entrance region) with it. This will likely delay the start of thunderstorms across the I-70 corridor and northward until the mid afternoon when diurnal heating breaks the cap. With the later start, look for the showers and thunderstorms to run well into the evening much like the storms Friday evening. The GFS BUFR soundings concur indication the LFC around 300 mb, -32C, with the most unstable period between about 22Z today and 04Z Sunday. The deep monsoonal moisture continues across the San Juan Mountains and to the west into southeastern Utah. WPC has the southern face of the San Juans and south into New Mexico in an area of moderate chances for heavy rain and potential flash flooding. Considered another flood watch for this area, but due to the continued cloud cover limiting diurnal heating and lack of upper air support for deep convection, opted to hold off for now to see how the morning conditions develop. Will continue to monitor this area closely. Looking for another day of widespread showers starting in the mid to late morning through the San Juan Mountains with a few embedded thunderstorms through the afternoon. Coverage will be more scattered to the west into southeastern Utah and to the north in the Montrose and Gunnison areas. Look for lingering showers overnight in the southern mountains. THe Great Basin high shifts eastward Sunday as the low off the Pacific Northwest slides south. This will put more of the damper on the convective activity especially to the north and west with more isolated showers and thunderstorms, but will likely see scattered to numerous storms again over the San Juan Mountains and to the north along the Divide. The convective activity will drop off going into the evening hours with a slight possibility of a shower overnight in the Four Corners area. Where the skies clear out, expect temperatures to warm to near normal today while the areas to the south will be about five degrees below normal under the cloud cover. The highs Sunday will be near normal to the south and three to five degrees above normal to the north under as the Great Basin high shifts overhead. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 403 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 The high pressure cell currently over the central Pacific coast will be migrating back eastward through the weekend and be aligned along the Central and Southern Rockies by early Monday. The highest PWAT anomalies of 3 to 4 sigma will be sloshing around SoCal into the Intermountain West over the next 48-56 hours. This higher water content airmass will be pulled northeast early next week as the high remains established over the Southern Rockies and heights lower over the PacNW...placing our CWA in the northwest quadrant of the ring of fire. It will be interesting to see if Monday will start out cloudy and showery as the nose of this next moisture surge moves through our eastern CWA. The good news is the northern part of the CWA will be able to take advantage of this monsoonal push through mid week and hopefully get more widespread precipitation. Generally good news unless you have hay on the ground. During the late week period the lower heights in the PacNW will be reinforced by another batch of high latitude energy which looks to expand troughing into the Northern Rockies. This will squash the SubTrop ridge southward and nudge the center of the high into the Plains. At the moment the biggest issue is how the med range models handle the moisture plume with the GFS disrupting the monsoonal flow and the Euro keeping it pretty much intact. There may be a bit of a downturn in coverage late in the week but it is probably a safe bet that at least daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will continue over the Colorado High County. Overall temperatures will continue to run near to above normal. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are once again the main concern through the next 24 hours. TAF sites south of I-70 will see the most impacts, decrease as one moves north. Shower and storm activity is expected to linger across the southern mountains through the overnight hours, so have included VCTS or VCSH in the TAFs for KTEX, KDRO, and KGUC. Main threats with any storms will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. Any storm that passes overhead may drop conditions to MVFR briefly. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with winds generally light and following typical drainage patters. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...DB LONG TERM...15 AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 431 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-311045- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 431 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Monsoon moisture continues across the region today resulting in another day of numerous showers and thunderstorms across the southern areas. The areas along the I-70 corridor and to the north will see fewer showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon that will continuing well into the evening hours. Heavy rain can once again be expected with these storms. Expect nocturnal showers to persist over the southern mountains overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday High pressure builds overhead Sunday and Monday resulting in a downturn in storm coverage, particularly across the north. Monsoon moisture will continue to stream into the southern areas resulting in daily showers and thunderstorms, especially over the mountains. Another deep moisture surge is possible early to mid next week bringing a significant increase in showers and thunderstorms along and north of the I-70 corridor. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1202 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022
COZ006-009-011-017-301830-
Grand and Battlement Mesas CO-Uncompahgre Plateau/Dallas Divide CO-
Grand Valley CO-Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin CO-
1202 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Delta
and southwestern Mesa Counties through 1230 PM MDT...
At 1202 PM MDT, trained weather spotters reported an area of strong
thunderstorm 14 miles west of Delta, or 29 miles southeast of Grand
Junction, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Delta
and southwestern Mesa Counties.
This includes the following highways...
U.S. Highway 50 in Colorado between mile markers 54 and 67.
Colorado 141 between mile markers 130 and 137.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3864 10872 3880 10873 3887 10811 3862 10812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 259DEG 13KT 3871 10833
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
TGRThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flash flood, 1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding and a significant debris flow occurred over the Pack Creek Fire burn scar as a result of heavy rain from thunderstorms.
Areas downstream of the Pack Creek Fire burn scar experienced flash flooding as a result of heavy rains over the fire. This included Old City Park Road south of Moab, which had to close due to flooding.
Areas downstream of the Pack Creek Fire burn scar experienced flash flooding as a result of heavy rains over the fire. This included Sunny Acres Lane north of Spanish Valley, which had to close due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Utah in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Utah, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1035758, 1035759, 1035760.