Abundant monsoon moisture remained over the Four Corners region. This led to another round of showers and thunderstorms across western Colorado.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Abundant monsoon moisture remained over the Four Corners region. This led to another round of showers and thunderstorms across western Colorado. Storms were slow moving and produced heavy rain. Some storms produced localized debris flows in Pitkin and Ouray counties with flooding reported in Montrose County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 30, 1:35 PM MST, 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 235 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Hope everyone's enjoyed the weather over the last few days because it continues today and tomorrow. Synoptically, a trough remains over the central states while we remain under the influence of high pressure. Flow around the high pressure continues to pump in copious amounts of moisture which is keeping PWATs well above normal. Daytime and differential heating, minor impulses, and orographic lift are all working on this moisture allowing convection to fire each afternoon and evening. Today, convection started around mid- morning with some cloud-to-cloud lightning noted from 11AM onwards. Very light winds aloft will cause any showers and storms that form to be slow moving which will increase flash flooding risks. As the highest concentration of moisture remains down south, that's where the biggest risk remains but any convection that forms today will have the ability to produce some heavy downpours. Heading into the evening and overnight hours, a few showers will persist but as instability decreases, coverage will also do the same. Tomorrow, the high pressure centered over Nevada will start moving eastward. Guidance suggests that the main plume of monsoonal moisture will get shunted to our west but plenty of residual moisture will remain in the atmosphere to bring another round of convection. Forecast PWATs will drop by .1 inches if models are to be believed which, in the grand scheme of things, isn't much at all. The end result? The convection might be a bit less widespread but we can still expect some heavy rainers firing off the higher terrain as the day progresses. Hi-res guidance shows a marked decrease in activity heading into the evening hours but would still expect a few lingering showers to persist. As far as temps are concerned, under clouds and precip...highs will be cooler than usual, variable cloudiness will see temps near normal and those areas seeing more sun than clouds will see highs ranging near to just above normal. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 207 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 A deep closed-low that will have formed off the PacNW coast will move northeast into southern Alberta by Tuesday. Much colder temperatures are expected Tuesday morning with morning lows in the 30s for the high valley locations across northwest Colorado. A few isolated showers are also possible over the northern mountains of western Colorado. With a strong jet overhead, expect gusty afternoon breezes as the boundary layer deepens bringing potential fire weather concerns across the region. Otherwise, much cooler temperatures and dry conditions are expected on Tuesday with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Monday. Consensus models are showing a weak dry wave will rotate around the main trough Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing a reinforcement to colder temperatures across the north and another round of chilly temperatures on Wednesday morning. On Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure will build over the Great Basin as the deep closed-low moves across southcentral Canada bringing seasonable temperatures and dry conditions across the forecast area. As a Pacific storm system moves onshore on Thursday it will push the ridge of high pressure east and the ridge will amplify over the central US. Ensemble forecasts continue to show anomalous H5 heights under this broad ridge by Friday. As a result, much warmer temperatures are expected on Thursday and Friday with high temperatures pushing into the mid to upper 90s across the lower elevations. Confidence is improving for a more active precipitation event for Friday into the weekend. An increasingly moist southerly gradient will develop on the back side of the ridge to the east and the Pacific storm system to our west. Ensemble forecasts are showing this subtropical monsoonal surge of moisture, with PWATs over an inch, will push into western Utah on Friday and spread east across the forecast area this weekend. There is low confidence on the details of the track and duration of this precipitation event and much of this uncertainty is based on the exact track and speed of the Pacific storm system which is forecasted to move northeast across the Great Basin region this weekend. Regardless, this storm system will bring an increased threat of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area with the possibility of heavy rain which would impact burn scar and other flood-prone areas late Friday into the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1134 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 Showers and thunderstorms are once again the main concern through the next 24 hours. TAF sites south of I-70 will see the most impacts, decrease as one moves north. Shower and storm activity is expected to linger across the southern mountains through the overnight hours, so have included VCTS or VCSH in the TAFs for KTEX, KDRO, and KGUC. Main threats with any storms will be heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty, erratic winds. Any storm that passes overhead may drop conditions to MVFR briefly. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with winds generally light and following typical drainage patters. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...TGR LONG TERM...MDM AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 431 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-311045- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 431 AM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Monsoon moisture continues across the region today resulting in another day of numerous showers and thunderstorms across the southern areas. The areas along the I-70 corridor and to the north will see fewer showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon that will continuing well into the evening hours. Heavy rain can once again be expected with these storms. Expect nocturnal showers to persist over the southern mountains overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday High pressure builds overhead Sunday and Monday resulting in a downturn in storm coverage, particularly across the north. Monsoon moisture will continue to stream into the southern areas resulting in daily showers and thunderstorms, especially over the mountains. Another deep moisture surge is possible early to mid next week bringing a significant increase in showers and thunderstorms along and north of the I-70 corridor. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1202 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022
COZ006-009-011-017-301830-
Grand and Battlement Mesas CO-Uncompahgre Plateau/Dallas Divide CO-
Grand Valley CO-Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin CO-
1202 PM MDT Sat Jul 30 2022
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Delta
and southwestern Mesa Counties through 1230 PM MDT...
At 1202 PM MDT, trained weather spotters reported an area of strong
thunderstorm 14 miles west of Delta, or 29 miles southeast of Grand
Junction, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Delta
and southwestern Mesa Counties.
This includes the following highways...
U.S. Highway 50 in Colorado between mile markers 54 and 67.
Colorado 141 between mile markers 130 and 137.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3864 10872 3880 10873 3887 10811 3862 10812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 259DEG 13KT 3871 10833
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
TGRThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 debris flow, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Mud and debris flowed across County Road 17 at Corbett Creek near the Dallas Trailhead as a result of heavy rain from thunderstorms. The Corbett Creek culvert was completely plugged. The road was closed for several hours due to cleanup operations.
A mudslide occurred on Colorado Highway 133 near Redstone at mile marker 57 as a result of heavy rain from thunderstorms.
The culverts backed up as a result of heavy rain from thunderstorms. This resulted in several inches of water and some embedded debris spilling over onto Racine and Sunshine Roads in Montrose.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1035795, 1035761, 1035784.