Funnel Cloud in Florida, April 1, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
254 PM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...

Surface observations and the 12z MFL upper air sounding from
earlier this morning indicate sufficient moistening of the
boundary layer over the last 24 hours. Abundant moisture, the
stagnation of a weak frontal boundary just to the north of the
region, and the combination of insolation and diurnal heating will
set the stage for a humid hot day across South Florida with the
potential of showers/thunderstorms for a portion of the area
today. Shifting gears to a synoptic scale, A mid level trough
continues to propagate across the northeastern United States with
an associated frontal boundary at the surface extending down into
central Florida. This surface frontal boundary has been gradually
slowing over the last several hours and continues to gradually sag
southward across the peninsula. As we remain to the south of the
frontal boundary, we continue to reside in the warm sector where
warm air advection and moisture transport continues in earnest.
Southerly flow, albeit light, will continue across the area today
with southwesterly flow just above the surface. Storm motion will
be to the northeast as southwesterly flow acts to steer convection
in that direction. This will also factor into where the greatest
coverage of shower and thunderstorm chances will reside today
which will be across the Lake Okeechobee region and Palm Beach
County. Taking a look at the earlier 12z RAOB sounding, there are
a few parameters that remain quite interesting on the sounding.
The DCAPE value of 1134J/kg indicates the potential for some
stronger winds with downbursts later today if a convective core is
able to get tall enough vertically. Moving on, the Effective Bulk
Shear value of 35 kts indicates the borderline/marginal potential
for some stronger convection which could support the potential
for a few strong (maybe an isolated severe) storms across the
area, especially across inland portions of South Florida and Palm
Beach County. Storm mode will be multicellular in nature with
propagation occurring along outflow boundary and the edges of the
residual cold pool. The main hazards today will be the threat of
strong wind gusts, small to marginally severe hail, and heavy
rainfall. Given the progression of the sea- breeze inland and the
enhanced vorticity along the boundary, cannot rule out the
potential for a brief tornado along the northeastern half of South
Florida as shear and SRH can be locally enhanced if a
thunderstorm develops along the boundary. While today's strong to
severe storm is very conditional in nature, if a storm was able to
tap into favorable conditions, an isolated severe thunderstorm or
two is certainly possible later this afternoon.

Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s across the area, which when coupled
with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will create muggy
and moist conditions. Although storm motion should be fairly brisk
in nature, back-building of convection or a large amount of
precipitation in a short period of time could create localized
flooding in urban areas. On a related note, although atmospheric
moisture has made a return to the region, radar reflectivity via
KAMX still indicates several smoke plumes still arising from the
Everglades/interior areas of South Florida which illustrates just
how dry it has been over the last several weeks. Given the
shifting of prevailing flow to a SSW direction late today into
tonight, there is the potential for smoke from active wildfires to
blow into the western suburbs of the East coast metro areas.
Light and variable winds overnight and the stalled frontal
boundary will allow for moisture to pool across the area, which
may allow for patchy dense fog to develop across inland portions
of South Florida overnight. Fog development could also be enhanced
depending on the amount of precipitation that falls today.

A similar pattern is in store for Saturday as diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms will once again be in the cards during
the afternoon hours. Still some uncertainty on where exactly the
stalled frontal boundary will remain, as it could drift northward
or sag a little further south. Current thinking is that convection
should be a little more widespread in nature across the area, and
thus the threat for a few strong to severe storms will be
possible over a larger area than today. As of this morning, SPC
placed the northern extent of South Florida in a slight risk (2 of
5) and much of the rest of South Florida in a marginal risk (1 of
5). Strong diurnal heating, modest mid level lapse rates, muggy
dewpoints, and enhanced surface convergence due to sea-breeze
boundaries could provide favorable conditions for a few strong to
severe thunderstorms to develop across the area during the
afternoon hours. storm mode may be organized in nature, with the
potential of supercells developing in areas of locally enhanced
shear. Strong wind gusts as well as small to marginally severe
hail will be the primary hazards during Saturday afternoon. Once
again cannot rule out a brief tornado or two, as the sea-breeze
boundary's vorticity could allow for a brief spin up or two along
a boundary. Heavy rainfall in a short amount of time could also
lead to localized urban flooding along the East coast metro areas.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...

The aforementioned frontal boundary will gradually decay through
early next week as residual moisture remains draped across South
Florida. Meanwhile, a large surface ridge of high pressure will
build in behind a departing upper-level trough to the north
preventing any retrograde northward of the decaying boundary.
Although the frontal boundary will become frontolytic in nature,the
additional moisture when coupled with diurnal heating will still
support the potential of afternoon showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday afternoon with the continued potential of a few strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms. In addition to lightning and
localized flooding, strong wind gusts and small hail is once again
possible with the strongest thunderstorm activity. The greatest
threat for a stronger storm or two will remain across the Lake
Okeechobee region and northern inland portions of South Florida.

Residual moisture will remain with us for much of the extended
period as afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances persist through
the foreseeable future before another frontal boundary approaches
the region by late week. Temperatures outside of the influences of
convection will remain rather toasty in nature with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s expected across the area with the exception of
low to mid 80s on Sunday and Monday due to cloud debris from nearby
convection and the decaying frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

Southwest winds 15-20 knots this afternoon
with showers and potentially thunderstorms developing which may
affect northern east coast sites this afternoon. VCTS for KPBI, KFXE
and KFLL which have greatest chance for thunder and VCSH elsewhere
through the afternoon. Light and variable winds this evening with
fog development possible at KAPF beginning around 06Z. VCSH for all
sites beginning 18z with winds 8-12kts resuming southwesterly
direction around 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A weak frontal boundary will stall over or just north of the coastal
waters. A moderate southerly to southwesterly wind will prevail
today with decreasing surface winds and Improving marine conditions.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain with us through the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...

High risk of rip currents will continue over the Palm beaches
through this evening. A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in
place for the beaches of Broward and Miami Dade County. As winds
turn more southwesterly, the risk of rip currents will gradually
diminish across the area this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  87  72  87 /  10  50  40  60
West Kendall     71  89  70  89 /  10  40  40  50
Opa-Locka        72  88  70  87 /  20  50  50  60
Homestead        72  87  70  87 /  10  30  30  50
Fort Lauderdale  73  86  71  85 /  20  60  50  70
N Ft Lauderdale  73  86  71  84 /  20  60  50  70
Pembroke Pines   72  87  70  87 /  20  60  50  70
West Palm Beach  71  86  70  83 /  30  70  60  70
Boca Raton       72  86  70  85 /  30  70  60  70
Naples           73  87  71  84 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Saturday and Aviation/Marine...Hadi
Saturday Night through Friday...Hadi

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Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
909 AM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
020715-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
909 AM EDT Fri Apr 1 2022

...Scattered Strong Thunderstorms Lake Okeechobee Region...
...High Risk of Rip Currents Palm Beaches...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms: Scattered thunderstorms will develop over portions of
South Florida this afternoon. The greatest chances for thunderstorms
will be over the Lake Okeechobee region where some could become
strong to severe containing heavy downpours, gusty winds, and small
hail.

Hail: The strongest thunderstorms could contain hail up to the size
of quarters over the Lake Okeechobee region.

Wind: The strongest thunderstorms could contain wind gusts up to 60
mph over the Lake Okeechobee region.

Waterspouts: An isolated waterspout cannot be ruled over the local
waters today with the strongest thunderstorms.

Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents across the Palm
Beaches today. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across the
beaches of Broward and Miami Dade County.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend as
a cold front approaches the region. Some of these storms could be
strong to severe, with the greatest threat of strong to severe storms
being over the northern half of our area. The primary impacts from
any strong to severe storms will be frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Widespread spotter activation is not anticipated, however,
individual spotters are encouraged to report high winds, hail, and
flooding to the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Miami.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.