A wildfire began from unknown causes 7 miles north of Pagosa Springs.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A wildfire began from unknown causes 7 miles north of Pagosa Springs.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 17, 10:32 AM MST, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1132 AM MDT Tue May 17 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 402 AM MDT Tue May 17 2022 High clouds were sweeping eastward over the northern portion of the forecast area ahead of a mid-level shortwave moving over the Great Basin early this morning. Meanwhile, another weak shortwave trough, split off from the main flow was over central Arizona early this morning. However, this disturbance was having little impact on the dry airmass over the Southwest and skies were clear over the southern portion of the forecast area. The shortwave trough over the Great Basin will push across the region today with frontogenetic forcing provided by the jet above causing a stationary boundary over southern Wyoming to sharpen and drift southward across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado during the day. Moisture entrained in the flow combined with steep lapse rates and surface convergence along the front will result in scattered showers developing first over the eastern Uinta Mountains before spreading southward with the front as it tracks southward toward the Tavaputs and Roan Plateaus and the Flat Tops. Isolated thunderstorms are possible and latest CAMS indicated the potential for strong outflow winds later this afternoon over the aforementioned plateaus and potentially spilling across the Grand Flat in eastern Utah and the Grand Valley of western Colorado. Areas to the south, however, will remain dry and unseasonably warm again today. In contrast, locations across the north behind the front can expect around 5 degrees of cooling while temperatures south of the I-70 corridor should be similar to those recorded Monday; which is to say, unseasonably warm. Expect showers and thunderstorms to diminish later this evening as the shortwave passes east of the Divide while diurnal cooling allows the airmass to stabilize. Clouds will slowly decrease during the night limiting radiational cooling resulting in above normal lows by Wednesday morning. Flow veers to the northwest behind the trough on Wednesday, though temperatures will remain quite mild. Residual moisture over the central and southern Colorado mountains is expected to fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though mainly along the Continental Divide. This activity will remain relatively high based so gusty winds are more likely than any significant measurable precipitation. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 402 AM MDT Tue May 17 2022 After a quiet night Wednesday night, attention turns to an anomalously strong trough that will drop into the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies and northern Plains on Thursday. This system will have all of the defining characteristics of a notable springtime storm, including a ridiculous 170+ kt upper jet and a potent cold front separating winterlike temperatures to the north and summerlike temperatures to the south. In between, everything from roaring winds, fire weather, severe weather and mountain snow will be on the table across a large portion of the western two thirds of the CONUS. Here locally, another very warm day is on tap for Thursday out ahead of the cold front that will be surging southward towards northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Southwest prefrontal winds will be quite gusty come the afternoon hours, particularly to the north of Interstate 70. Frequent wind gusts of 45 to 55+ mph are likely and those locations will probably need wind highlights at some point. Near and south of I-70, 35 to 45 mph gusts are expected. Combined with the very dry desert air, critical fire weather will be a concern across the lower elevations of southwest Colorado. Highlights will likely be needed to cover that threat as well. Debated issuing a Fire Weather Watch, but decided to hold off for now. Still some time left to iron out the details. As far as frontal timing, the latest 00Z/Tuesday model guidance has slowed down the arrival of the front and doesn't begin to encroach the northwest CWA until between 00Z and 03Z Thursday evening. The front will make decent progress Thursday night and is progged to be either on the doorstep or even through the I-70 corridor by 12Z Friday. By the early afternoon hours, the front will have passed through the entire forecast area. In its wake, much colder and well below normal air will surge into all of eastern Utah and western Colorado. In fact, high temperatures on Friday will be a good 20 to 30 degrees colder than on Thursday. So for those thinking it's way too early for this summerlike heat...relief is on the way. Temperatures aren't the only story on Friday, though. Precipitation would like to have a word. Increasing moisture (to the tune of 100 to 150% of normal) along/behind the front combined with jet dynamics and frontogenetical forcing will set the stage for fairly widespread precipitation. Most of this precip will be confined to the northern half of the CWA (including the I-70 corridor) and especially the northern and central Divide mountains. Unfortunately, the front is likely to pass through dry across southeast Utah and southwest Colorado (outside of the San Juans). P-type will be rain in the lowest valleys, but you won't have to go too far up until profiles are plenty cold enough to support snow. In the high valleys of northwest Colorado, a dusting up to maybe an inch or two is possible. GFS forecast soundings do show a period where the DGZ is saturated, fairly deep and within a region of modestly strong omega... but it's brief and during the daylight hours with a strong mid to late May sun angle. Impacts will likely be nil. The mountains will do better of course and it's very possible for some of the highest peaks to accumulate 3 to 6 inches or more of new snow. Still though, the same reasoning applies. Impacts (especially to roads) will be minimal. That said, with a rapidly declining mountain snow pack, we'll take whatever we can get at this time of the year. Precipitation will mostly taper off Friday night, though a few showers may linger across the Divide into Saturday. Temperatures Friday night will get quite chilly and may even near freezing in some of the higher valleys. This shouldn't be a concern to the peaches here in the Grand Valley, but it's worth keeping an eye on as we get closer. Looking ahead to the weekend, Saturday will be another cooler than normal day before temperatures start to rebound Sunday into Monday as heights rise and ridging builds into the Great Basin. Dry and partly to mostly sunny will generally be the rule. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1128 AM MDT Tue May 17 2022 A frontal feature is still expected to drop south into the area through the afternoon hours, bringing mainly some mid- and high- level clouds to areas along and north of I-70, and some VCSH/VCTS for KHDN and KVEL. Breezy winds and gusts up to 35 knots will be possible across the area through the afternoon before dropping overnight. CIGS will remain above ILS breakpoints through the period, with VFR conditions prevailing. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 402 AM MDT Tue May 17 2022 A weak disturbance and cool front will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the northern portion of the forecast area from late morning through the afternoon and into the evening. This activity will generate strong gusty outflows, but little measurable precipitation. Areas south of the I-70 corridor can expect modestly gusty west winds during the afternoon. Though, there will be pockets of critical fire weather conditions, it remains unlikely that this will be a sustained widespread event for the susceptible southern zones. Similar conditions are expected Wednesday so at this time fire weather highlights appear to be unwarranted either today or Wednesday. However, this changes on Thursday as a system moving out of the Pacific Northwest causes the pressure gradient to tighten ahead of it bringing the potential for widespread strong and gusty winds. The airmass over the region will remain dry ahead of the storm so there does appear to be a good chance for critical fire weather conditions from late Thursday morning into the evening. Have held off issuing a Fire Weather Watch with this package allowing the next model runs to better resolve the details. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...MDM AVIATION...TGJT FIRE WEATHER...NL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 417 AM MDT Tue May 17 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-181030- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 417 AM MDT Tue May 17 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected for areas north of the I-70 corridor through this evening. Localized, brief critical fire weather conditions are likely south of the I-70 corridor. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Wednesday: Expect scattered thunderstorms over the central and southern mountains of western Colorado during the afternoon and evening. Localized, brief critical fire weather conditions are possible, mainly south of the I-70 corridor. Thursday: Strong and gusty southwest winds may bring a return of widespread and prolonged critical fire weather conditions to much of the region. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible over the Elkhead, Park and Flat Top Mountains. Friday: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible, mainly over the northern and central Colorado mountains. Localized, brief critical fire weather conditions are possible across the Four Corners region. Expect accumulating snow above treeline in the northern mountains. Saturday and Sunday: Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the mountains of the Continental Divide. Additional snow will fall across the northern and central Colorado mountains with total accumulations up to 6 inches for areas above 10,000 feet. Localized, brief critical fire weather conditions are possible across the Four Corners region. Monday: Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are possible along the Continental Divide. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Plumtaw Fire began in mid May from unknown causes, 7 miles north of Pagosa Springs, and grew to 721 acres before it was contained in early June.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, May 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1025683.