Strong northwest flow brought a moist and unstable environment into the northern and central portions of the forecast area. A stronger midlevel trough pushed across the region and enhanced snowfall rates over the northern mountains with heavy snow accumulating over the course of a couple of days.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Strong northwest flow brought a moist and unstable environment into the northern and central portions of the forecast area. A stronger midlevel trough pushed across the region and enhanced snowfall rates over the northern mountains with heavy snow accumulating over the course of a couple of days. Additionally, strong winds aloft resulted in gusts exceeding 55 mph at the surface.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 4, 10:07 AM MST, 1 hour 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1007 AM MST Tue Jan 4 2022
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 355 AM MST Tue Jan 4 2022
Current GOES-16 IR satellite imagery reveals a good deal of high
clouds have overspread much of the forecast area early this morning.
This is in response to a strong 300mb west-northwesterly jet that is
punching into the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin and central
Rockies. Hitching a ride on this corridor of brisk upper level winds
is fairly robust moisture, characterized by PWAT anomalies of 100-
200% of normal and ensemble mean integrated water vapor transport
values climbing above the 90th percentile. As the day progresses,
these strong, moisture-laden mid and upper level winds will slam
into the northern Colorado mountains and produce a long duration
snow event with significant accumulations. Snow will begin across
the Elkheads and Park Range as early as the late morning hours, but
will really begin to ramp up this afternoon. Lighter snows will
also gradually work southward into the Flat Tops and eventually
portions of the northern central Colorado mountains where a
dusting up to a few inches are likely. However, given the primary
source of lift is the favorable orographic flow in place, the
Elkheads, Park Range and adjacent valleys will see most of the
action today and tonight. The Winter Storm Warning in effect for
this area looks good and on track so made no changes there, but
did decide to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory for COZ005 including
Steamboat Springs beginning this evening. Elsewhere across the
CWA, a partly sunny to mostly cloudy day is on tap with
temperatures (especially in the snow-covered, inverted valleys)
remaining well below normal.
Snow may wane for a time overnight, but on Wednesday, the pattern
becomes a little more amplified as a vigorous shortwave is
progged to dig across the Pacific Northwest and northern/central
Rockies. Most of the stronger forcing will slide by to the north
and east, but a potent cold front dropping in from the north
Wednesday afternoon and evening with re-invigorate the orographic
snowfall across the northern and central Colorado mountains. Snow
will be heavy at times during this period and the front will
really kick up the winds. In fact, gusts up to 60 mph are likely
to be common, especially above timberline. Combined, whiteout
conditions will make for nearly impossible travel, especially
across Rabbit Ears Pass and possibly Vail Pass as well. With this
package, decided to upgrade the Winter Storm Watch for the Flat
Tops to a Winter Storm Warning where up to 2 feet of snow is
possible. In addition, decided to upgrade the watch to an
advisory for COZ010 and added COZ012 where 6 to 12 and 5 to 10
inches of snow is forecast with locally higher amounts (mainly
above 9500 feet), respectively. Of course, the main focus
continues to be the Park Range where up to 3 feet of snow is on
the table. Safe to say, wind, snow and the long duration will
result in significant impacts to travel over the passes so be sure
to plan accordingly and check back often for updates.
Snow will quickly wind down for most on Thursday as the shortwave
trough slides east of the Rockies. Northwest flow will likely
keep the snow machine going the longest across the northern
Colorado mountains, but any additional accumulations are expected
to be light. Snow will shutoff completely towards the evening and
overnight hours as weak ridging builds into the Great Basin and
Four Corners.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM MST Tue Jan 4 2022
The flow turns zonal Friday followed by southwest winds aloft
dominating on Saturday as a wave moves overhead. While the
precipitation footprint could be slightly more widespread, latest
model trends have decreased QPF amounts with this system. Still, a
quick few inches will be possible across many of the Colorado
mountains. Sunday, a strong ridge of high pressure builds over the
western CONUS, but it may be short-lived as a shortwave interacts
early next week. Additional model runs will provide more insight
as we move through the rest of this week.
Valley temperatures continue a slow rise through the long term
periods as we try to overcome strong inversions.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1006 AM MST Tue Jan 4 2022
The higher elevation TAF sites are then likely to break out with
gusty west to west to northwest winds reaching the surface in the
afternoon. Strong inversions are expected to keep winds light at
the valley terminals, however. Clouds will gradually lower through
the day across the higher elevations near the Continental Divide
with ceilings lowering to near ILS breakpoints by mid to late
afternoon at KHDN, KEGE and KASE. Snow showers become possible at
these TAF sites around the same time, with KHDN having the highest
odds of snow on station. Otherwise, VFR expected for the next 24
hours elsewhere.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to noon MST Thursday
for COZ010-012.
Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST Thursday for COZ004.
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MST
Thursday for COZ005.
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to noon MST Thursday
for COZ013.
UT...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...MDM
LONG TERM...SS
AVIATION...TGJTHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 507 AM MST Tue Jan 4 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-051215- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 507 AM MST Tue Jan 4 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Moisture-laden northwest flow will result in snow breaking out across the northern Colorado mountains later this morning and persisting through the afternoon and overnight hours. Snow along with gusty winds will lead to increasingly difficult travel with snow-covered roads and reduced visibility from blowing snow. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Snow continues into Wednesday and will become heavy at times Wednesday afternoon and evening as a strong cold front approaches from the north. Strong gusty winds will still be a concern with whiteouts and near impossible travel likely across Rabbit Ears and Vail Pass. Significant snow accumulations of 1 to 3 feet are on the table when all is said and done with the most occurring in the Park Range. Snow winds down on Thursday before dry weather returns on Friday. Another system with additional snow is possible on Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight, however spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 winter storm, 2 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
An average of 20 to 30 inches of snow fell across the area with locally higher amounts exceeding 80 inches estimated at the Tower SNOTEL site. Winds generally gusted from 45 to 55 mph with locally higher gusts of close to 80 mph reported.
Generally 10 to 16 inches of snow fell across the area, much of that within 24 hours.
Generally 6 to 12 inches of snow fell across the area with locally higher amounts of up to 2 feet estimated at the Vail Mountain SNOTEL site. The town of Vail had close to a foot of snow. Winds gusted up to 48 mph. Travel was significantly impacted along Interstate 70 with numerous spinouts and accidents reported from Vail to Vail Pass.
Generally 16 to 25 inches of snow fell across the area. Winds gusted up to 47 mph.
Generally 8 to 10 inches of snow fell across the area with locally higher amounts of up to 16 inches estimated at the Porphyry Creek SNOTEL site.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, January 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 991632, 991638, 991635, 991633, 991637.