Deep subtropical moisture lingered over the Four Corners region. This resulted in another round of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
Deep subtropical moisture lingered over the Four Corners region. This resulted in another round of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. Storms were slow moving and produced heavy rain. Localized debris flows occurred in San Miguel County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 10:38 AM MST, 3 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1138 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 419 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 An unusual flow pattern has settled over the area in the past 24 hours which featured high pressure over the Texas Panhandle and a ridge of high pressure with its own center over southern Idaho. Between the two highs a shallow area of low pressure was centered over Page with a trough extending northeastward over the forecast area. As a result, lingering nocturnal showers south of Price were moving to the southwest while another area of showers over the San Juan Mountains was moving to the northeast. On the mesoscale, an MCV was spinning over the Blanding area, though the showers generated by this feature were diminishing rapidly early this morning. Given the flow around the previously described features, drier air will persist over the northernmost portion of the forecast area, while deep subtropical moisture lingers over the central and southern zones. As a result, the northern tier zones can expect mainly dry weather with just isolated storms over the higher elevations. Along and south of the I-70 corridor enough instability exists to sustain showers during the early morning, though chances for showers and thunderstorms will rise rapidly later in the morning as areas of clearing destabilize with rising temperatures. MUCAPE indicated to climb to near 1000 J/kg across the south during the afternoon driven by PWAT levels near 1.2" and elevated surface dew points leaving little doubt that the southern and central mountains will see numerous showers and thunderstorms with some storms moving out of adjacent lower elevations. Steering flow remains light, and given the amount of moisture available over the Four Corners region its reasonable to expect a handful of storms to produce excessive rainfall. However, CAMS and operational model runs continued to suggest the greatest concentration of heavy rain producing cells will be east of the Continental Divide. To the north, enough moisture remains to potentially create problems over the Grizzly Creek burn scar, however models not all that bullish with QPF over the area. Therefore, for those reasons have opted not to issue a Flood Watch with this package. The high to the northwest builds to the east tonight into Wednesday while little change is indicated to the south and east. As result, the drying across the north will spread to the I-70 corridor while deep subtropical moisture lingers over the south. Therefore, expect showers and thunderstorms to linger through the night, much like this morning, mainly across the San Juans and southernmost zones. Since the airmass will remain juicy across the south expect another round of numerous shower and thunderstorm activity. Given largely unchanged conditions in the south no reason to expect the threat of excessive rainfall will diminish, though drying should reach the Glenwood Springs area reducing the threat of mud and debris slides. Drying across the north is expected to cause temperatures to rebound there today and Wednesday. In contrast, clouds and showers should keep highs below normal for the remainder of the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 419 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 The center of the high pressure ridge will be centered over northern Utah on Thursday, driving drier northerly flow across much of western Colorado and keeping the deeper monsoonal moisture at bay south of our border in Arizona and New Mexico. PWAT will be near an inch across the Four Corners, but much lower across central and northern areas of the CWA where PWAT anomalies will be on the order of 60 to 90 percent of normal (equates to 0.5 to 0.7 inches). Having said that, more of a downturn is anticipated Thursday afternoon but storms will still develop in the afternoon, favoring southeast Utah and southwest Colorado high terrain with some drift into lower valleys late in the day. A shortwave trough crashing into the ridge and tracking across northern California and Nevada will become more of a player for late this week into the coming weekend. A more robust low pressure trough will move into the PacNW, helping to nudge the high pressure ridge eastward to allow for a more favorable return of monsoonal moisture from the south, in addition, allowing this leading shortwave trough to become trapped underneath the ridge between a high pressure circulation setting up over the California coast and a low pressure system over the upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes region. This will lead to a more active period of storm activity Friday through the weekend as this embedded shortwave trough drives itself southward across the CWA. Friday and Saturday look to be the most active days with this added energy and forcing. PWAT anomalies will also increase Friday through Sunday in the 180 to almost 250 percent of normal range. Expect heavy rain with any storm activity and heightened potential for flash flooding in some areas as we've seen with these deep moisture surges and the added benefit of a disturbance to act on the moisture. The presence of this robust shortwave may also lead to overnight convection. Models are in relatively good agreement on this until next Monday. The GFS wants to dry things out while the ECMWF keeps the weather fairly unsettled and stormy through early next week as this embedded shortwave trough remains trapped under the ridge and exerts its influence with daily convection. Either way, temperatures look to be a few degrees above normal Thursday but drop to below normal levels Friday through the weekend with the increasing moisture and storm activity. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1133 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Expect lingering low level moisture to impact ASE and EGE in the form of low cigs near MVFR / ILS breakpoints. Meanwhile, lingering moisture will fuel another round of showers and thunderstorms bringing the likelihood of some activity moving over all TAF sites except KVEL and KHDN this afternoon and evening. There's a good chance that cells could drive visibility into the MVFR range. There's little to suggest that overnight storms won't occur again tonight at TAF sites along and south of the I-70 corridor. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...MDA AVIATION...TGJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 330 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-170930- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 330 AM MDT Tue Aug 16 2022 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms will form over the higher terrain from late morning through early afternoon and drift over valley floors by evening. Heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds, and frequent lightning will remain the greatest threat with these storms. Nocturnal showers are most probable across west-central and southwest Colorado. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Expect chances for storms each afternoon through the week. There is a potential for localized flooding, especially over steep terrain, burn scars, and saturated soils. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight, however spotters are encouraged to relay rainfall amounts or any observed flooding to the National Weather Service in Grand Junction.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1127 AM MDT TUE AUG 16 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0900 AM HEAVY RAIN 11 W GLADE PARK 39.00N 108.93W
08/16/2022 M0.86 INCH MESA CO PUBLIC
24 HOUR RAINFALL.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1224 PM MDT TUE AUG 16 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 ESE MOAB 38.54N 109.49W
08/16/2022 M0.52 INCH GRAND UT TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR RAINFALL.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.
Four mudslides obstructed part of Colorado Highway 145 near Keystone Hill outside Telluride as a result of heavy rain from thunderstorms.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, August 2022
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1039728.