Strong Wind in California, March 4, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1001 AM PST Fri Mar 4 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather continues into Saturday. Gusty
north winds arrive Friday with a wind advisory in effect. Cold
overnight temperatures Saturday night and Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 09:24 AM PST Friday...Light rain continues to
diminish in coverage over the region this morning as a frontal
boundary exits to the south. In wake of the frontal system, north
to northwest winds will increase and become locally gusty near
the coast and in the region's higher elevations. Thus, a Wind
Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM for most coastal locations
with gusts up to 45 mph anticipated. While precipitation will
briefly come to an end region-wide by this afternoon, another
system will drop down from the north to bring a renewed chance of
rain showers from late in the day into early Saturday morning. All
this said, the ongoing forecast remains on track at this time.
For additional details, please see the previous forecast
discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...as of 04:15 AM PST Friday...On radar, we've
had a line of showers that has held together fairly well during
the overnight hours. This line is currently oriented SW to NE
offshore from the SF Peninsula, over SF metro, extending over Napa
and farther NE into the Sacramento Valley. While the dBZ values
look decent on radar, then amounts have only been around 0.05" or
less in the past 3 hours. This line is moving southeastward and we
could see some light rain (a few hundredths) moving across East &
South Bay and then down into the Monterey Bay/Central CA area.

These showers are associated with a low pressure system that is
tracking towards SoCal. Hi-res models show that this round of rain
should dissipate by late morning as it tracks SE. However, another
upper low/vort max will also track SE from coastal NorCal towards
the Great Basin late tonight into Saturday. The center of this
low should stay to the north and east of our CWA, but we could
see additional light rain on the back side of that low. All in
all, between rain this morning and then overnight into Saturday,
our rain totals are forecast to remain less than a tenth of an
inch with slightly higher amounts possible over higher terrain.

Another impact from this low are the strengthening NW winds over
the coastal waters which will also impact coastal regions over
land starting this morning and through the day. A Wind Advisory
for our coastal land zones remains in effect from 7 am to 7 pm as
NW winds are expected to range 20 to 30 mph with gusts possible
up to around 45 mph.

And as that second low moves across CA, it will advect colder air
aloft over our region. 850 mb temps will drop below zero degrees C
which means our early Saturday morning temps will range low to mid 30s
in colder valleys and in the 40s along coast/shorelines. Chilly
mornings expected through the weekend and into Monday, possible
Tuesday. Meanwhile, a high amplitude ridge will develop over the
eastern Pacific Ocean which will expand into CA and start warming
temps again while dry weather dominates. Expect daytime highs to
reach the mid 60s to low 70s for the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 10:01 AM PST Friday...For the 18Z TAFs.

Windy today. As the clouds follow the departing front to the
southeast, wind will ramp up quickly. The Point Arena buoy is
already showing gale conditions. These winds will filter across
the region from north to south through the day today. Not only
will surface winds be gusting, but winds aloft will be howling.
As such have added wind shear to nearly every taf site with winds
aloft reaching as high as 45 knots. A secondary system will slide
across the area overnight helping to ease the winds, but will
bring some scattered showers around the region before all the
conditions really drop off Saturday afternoon.

Vicinity of KSFO...Low clouds will give way to strong gusty winds
late morning and early afternoon. Vicinity showers will arrive
later tonight and linger into Saturday AM before fully clearing
out. Expect an Airport Weather Warning for the winds this
afternoon.

KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay...MVFR giving way to VFR and windy conditions this
afternoon. A few scattered showers overnight then clearing
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...as of 09:53 AM PST Friday...Gale conditions will
dominate the waters into the weekend. These  will be very
dangerous conditions to navigate the waters. When in  doubt, don't
go out. Conditions will subside late weekend into early next week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...Wind Advisory...CAZ006-505-508-509-529-530
             GLW...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             GLW...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...SF Bay until 3 PM
             GLW...SF Bay from 3 PM
             GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 3 PM
             GLW...Mry Bay until 3 PM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass/Bingaman
AVIATION: BFG
MARINE: BFG

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