High Wind in California, March 20, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1116 AM PDT Sun Mar 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...20/239 AM.

An exiting low pressure system will bring a threat of showers to
interior this morning. Gusty northwest to north winds will develop
today and continue through Monday. For Tuesday through Thursday, a
dramatic warming trend is expected with potential for record
high. Slightly cooler conditions are expected Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...20/838 AM.

***UPDATE***

Shower activity has shut off over the four county area this
morning for the most part. The exception is over the north slopes
bordering Kern County where weak radar returns indicate light
showers still lingering under moist northerly flow. Not much in
the way of precip accumulation with just a couple hundredths of
liquid equivalent over the last few hours. Snow levels remain
above 5000 feet so not expecting winter impacts to the major
mountain passes. Winds will be the main forecast issue for the
rest of the day. Gusty north to northwest winds have picked up in
strength over the last few hours. The strongest winds are taking
hold over the mountains, especially through the I-5 corridor down
into the northern San Fernando Valley and the Santa Ynez Range.
Gusts are largely below 40 mph currently, but a few isolated spots
(including the hills around Montecito which have been quite windy
recently) have been gusting up to 50 mph. Damaging gusts of at
least 60 mph are likely through day across the mountains and High
Wind Warnings will remain in effect through 6am Monday. Areas
downstream of the mountains susceptible to north wind will also
be quite windy through the day. Many areas are under Wind
Advisories that are also in effect through 6am Monday. The wind
should clear out the cloud cover today and most areas will be
bright and sunny for the first day of spring.

***From Previous Discussion***

By late tonight and Monday morning, the flow will shift to a
north to northeast direction and remain through Tuesday. At this
time, there's a decent chance that the northeast winds could reach
advisory levels across Ventura/LA counties, especially by Monday
night and Tuesday.

As for temperatures, will anticipate a noticeable warming trend
through Tuesday as the upper level ridge builds and offshore flow
develops. By Tuesday, coastal and coastal valley areas are
expected to climb into the 80s to lower 90s (about 15-20 degrees
above normal) while interior sections climb into the mid 70s to
mid 80s (about 10-15 degrees above normal). Would not be surprised
to see a record or two broken on Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...20/239 AM.

For the extended, 00Z models continue to be on the same synoptic
page. At upper levels, ridge peaks in strength on Wednesday, then
weakens Thursday/Friday with a trough approaching the West Coast
on Saturday. Near the surface, weak to moderate offshore flow
will continue through Wednesday, with weak diurnal flow
Thursday/Friday then return of onshore flow Saturday.

Forecast-wise, main issue will be temperatures through the
extended period. With upper ridge peaking in strength and
continued offshore flow, Wednesday will be the warmest day for
most areas with the potential for some broken records. As the
ridge weakens and flow turns more diurnal (weak onshore in the day
and weak offshore at night), temperatures will begin a gradual
cooling trend Thursday through Saturday.

A bit further out, Sunday through Tuesday, models indicate the
chances for some additional rainfall for the area. GFS and ECMWF
disagree on chances, timing and amounts. However, looking at the
various ensemble members, there will be a chance of some rain
during the Sunday-Tuesday time frame. Stay tuned for details.

&&

.AVIATION...20/1815Z.

At 1743Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion. A drier
airmass was spreading into the region.

Aside from eastern portions of SLO/SBA counties, skies were
mostly clear with VFR conds.

There will be widespread strong and gusty W to N winds across the
region through this evening, with some LLWS, areas of turbulence
and some mdt UDDF.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Fairly high confidence in VFR
conds thru the period. Less confidence in the wind forecast.
Strong west winds are expected this afternoon. There is a 30%
chance of northerly cross winds gusting to 20-25 kt between 02Z
and 08Z Mon.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Fairly high confidence in VFR
conds thru the period. Less confidence in the wind forecast.
There is a 30% chance of west to northwest winds gusting to 30 kt
between 19Z today and 03Z Mon.

&&

.MARINE...20/937 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in the forecast. Gale
force winds are expected to continue into Mon evening. Winds in
zone 670 are expected to temporarily drop off to SCA levels
during the day Monday before increasing to Gales again late
Monday afternoon into Monday evening. There is a 40% chance of SCA
level NW winds Tue and Tue night, then SCA level NW winds are
likely Wed thru Thu.

For the Inner Waters north of Pt Sal, moderate to high confidence
in the forecast. SCA level NW winds are expected to develop this
morning, then continue thru late this evening. However, seas
will likely remain above SCA levels thru Mon morning. Then, SCA
level NW winds are expected Mon afternoon and evening. Therefore,
the SCA is in effect until then. SCA conds are not expected late
Mon night thru Wed morning. There is a 40% chance of SCA level
winds Wed afternoon and evening, then SCA conds are likely Wed.

For the Inner Waters south of Pt. Conception, moderate confidence
in the forecast. SCA level W-NW winds across the western portions
of zones PZZ650/655) are expected to spread toward the coast this
morning, then continue thru late tonight, except thru mid morning
Mon across western portions of the SBA Channel. There is a 20%
chance of SCA level N-NE winds from Malibu to Ventura and out to
Anacapa and Santa Cruz Island Tue morning, Otherwise, SCA conds
are not expected Tue thru Thu.

&&

.BEACHES...20/612 AM.

Fairly large swell, along with wind driven waves will produce
elevated surf and rough conditions on area beaches through Mon
morning. Surf of 6 to 9 feet with local sets to 10 feet is
expected on west and northwest facing beaches on the Central Coast
through Mon morning. On exposed west facing beaches of Ventura
and Los Angeles Counties and on the west facing coast of Catalina
Island, surf of 4 to 6 feet with local sets to 7 feet is expected
later this morning through Monday morning. There is a high risk
of dangerous rip currents on all area beaches through Monday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Monday morning for
      zones 34-35-40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones
      39-44-45-59-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM PDT
      Monday for zone 46. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Warning in effect until 6 AM PDT Monday for zones
      52>54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT Monday for zone
      645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zone
      650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone
      655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT Monday for zones
      670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...Stewart/Thompson
AVIATION...Sweet/DB
MARINE...Sweet/DB
BEACHES...DB
SYNOPSIS...RAT

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox