NWS Los Angeles, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 13, 7:55 PM PST, 58 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 13, 7:55 PM PST, 58 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
855 PM PDT Mon Jun 13 2022
.SYNOPSIS...13/816 PM.
Winds will pick up across most of the mountains and nearby canyons
through the evening and overnight hours. Low clouds will return
to portions of the Los Angeles coast by Tuesday morning. Much
warmer temperatures are then forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday
with marine layer clouds limited to the south coast in the
mornings. A significant cool down will return late this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM (MON-THU)...13/814 PM.
Upper level trough of low pressure moving through interior
California tonight is resulting in strengthening northwest to
north winds aloft across Southwest California. This upper level
wind support combined with tightening northwest-north pressure
gradients is resulting in widespread gusty northwest to north
winds across the region tonight. The strongest winds tonight
will be focused across the LA/Ventura county mountains (especially
the I-5 corridor) where a high wind warning is in effect for
damaging wind gusts to around 60 mph. Meanwhile, wind advisories
for northwest to north wind gusts of 35 to 55 mph are in effect
for the remaining mountains (including the Santa Ynez range),
Santa Barbara south coast, Santa Clarita Valley, and Lake Casitas
zone. Current wind advisories for the Central Coast and Antelope
Valley will soon be allowed to expire as winds will gradually
diminish below advisory levels.
Tonight's sundowner wind event is expected to be most widespread
and impactful during this current stretch of sundowner winds.
The Santa Barbara-Santa Maria pressure gradient is expected to
climb to around -4.5 mb this evening while the Santa Barbara-
Bakersfield gradient peaks at -5 mb overnight. The combination of
these tightening pressure gradients and strengthening upper level
wind support should bring widespread sundowner winds across the
Santa Ynez Range, extending into many of the foothills and some
coastal areas of the urban interface around Santa
Barbara/Montecito. High resolution WRF data continues to show that
Montecito Hills will likely receive the strongest winds tonight
with isolated gusts up to 60 mph possible, but even other
populated foothill areas such as San Marcos Pass and Botanical
Gardens could see wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range. Tonight's
sundowner winds should also bring some compressional
warming/drying this evening, with humidities likely falling into
the teens, resulting in a few hours of critical fire weather
conditions. Also expecting rapid drying overnight in other areas
prone to the northerly winds, which will result in brief critical
fire weather conditions for some mountain, foothill, and valley
locations.
The marine layer should be about half as deep for Tuesday morning
and confined mainly to the Ventura and LA County coasts and
San Gabriel Valley. Offshore pressure gradient trends over 5 mb
from LAX-DAG and some offshore breezes will help reduce the
marine layer depth. Downslope warming associated with northeast
winds will likely press into the eastern Ventura valleys, Santa
Monica Mountains, and western San Fernando Valley Tuesday morning
and may crest the Canejo Grade into Camarillo with temperatures
flirting with 90 degrees just before a sea breeze kicks in for the
remainder of the day. All areas will be warmer than today with
some mid 90s across the western San Fernando Valley. The
combination of north to northeast wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph,
warming temperatures, and widespread single digit humidities will
bring a large area of elevated to brief critical fire weather
conditions across many mountain, valley, and foothill locations.
The other issue will be a continuation of gusty north-northeast
winds across the Santa Ynez foothills and canyons on the south SBA
County coast through Tuesday night.
*** From previous discussion ***
Wednesday looks like the hottest day of the week as high pressure
builds back across California. The 500mb heights will not be as
strong as last week's heat wave, however, the offshore wind flow
is favorable for that extra boost of heat across the valleys and
mountains. A heat advisory may be necessary across the SFV, SGV,
and SCV areas of LA County for Wednesday, especially if winds keep
the foothills rather warm at night. Will continue to monitor for
this potential. On Thursday another low pressure trough will be
approaching the northern CA region with the ridge axis shifting to
the east. This drops the heights by 20-30dm and the highest 950mb
temperatures shift toward the desert compared to Wednesday. We
still expect readings close to triple digits in the SFV and the AV
could be just as hot or a degree warmer on Thursday. For other
areas closer to the coast, the marine layer will begin to thicken
up again (it's still June Gloom) with more widespread potential
for morning low clouds and fog.
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...13/157 PM.
On Friday, the upper level trough stalls and elongates on the West
Coast with heights continuing to fall and onshore flow
strengthening. All medium range computer model data and ensembles
(GEFS and EPS) are all in rather good agreement in this pattern.
As a result of the deepening trough, a sharp ridge builds over
the middle part of the country for a taste of summer there. This
pattern brings the first significant easterly surge of moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico that gets entrained in the flow around the
high pressure system across AZ and NM. PWATs reach 200 percent of
normal in that region on Friday which may bring much need rain to
the largest wildfires in the nation at the moment. Here in
California our temperatures trend downward on Friday and Saturday
with temperatures back closer to normal on Saturday. There will be
many areas of gusty W-NW winds on these two days as the trough
passes to the east, mainly across the west and south SBA coastal
mountains, Ventura and LA County mountains, and the Antelope
Valley. This is supported by >80 percent probability wind gusts
over 20kt on the EPS ensembles. Heights then rebound by 50dm or
more from Saturday to Sunday, therefore, temperatures will
rebound back into the 70s and 80s for Father's Day. The warming
trend should continue early next week, but may be limited near the
ocean as the marine layer clouds temper the heating.
&&
.AVIATION...13/2307Z.
At 2215Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based around 3000 feet.
The top of the inversion was 6800 feet with a temperature of
16 degrees Celsius.
Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF package. High
confidence in CAVU conditions for the desert TAFs as well as
KSBA/KSMX/KSBP and KPRB. Moderate confidence in coastal and
valleys TAFs from Ventura county southward due to the uncertainty
of the marine layer stratus.
KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. Moderate
confidence in return of CIG/VSBY restrictions tonight with
potential arrival time +/- 3 hours of current 08Z forecast. There
is a 20% chance of easterly wind component 10Z-16Z.
KBUR...Overall, moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 30%
chance of MVFR/IFR conditions 09Z-15Z.
&&
.MARINE...13/851 PM.
Gale force winds will likely continue through Tuesday night across
the outer waters, mainly northwest of San Nicholas Island, as well
as the Central Coast. A period of Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
conditions will linger between Tuesday night and Wednesday, then
there is a 50 percent chance of gale force winds between Wednesday
afternoon and early Friday morning.
Inside the southern California bight, there is a 60-70 percent
chance of SCA level winds tonight through Friday across the
western portion of the Santa Barbara Channel, mainly during the
late afternoon through overnight hours. Elsewhere across the
southern Inner Waters, winds and seas are expected to remain below
SCA levels through Friday. There is a 30-40 percent chance of
widespread SCA level winds on Saturday.
&&
.BEACHES...13/108 PM.
High astronomical tides expected with the full moon are expected
to exceed 7 feet, approaching 7.3 to 7.4 feet in some places,
from this evening through Wednesday evening. The high tides will
create the possibility of minor tidal overflows around the time
of high tide, which could inundate exposed parking lots with
minor flooding. At this time, no structures are expected to be
affected, but there is a moderate chance that coastal flooding
could reach advisory levels at Ventura County beaches. Later
shifts can decide whether to upgrade to an advisory in Ventura
County for tomorrow.
In addition, strong winds in the coastal waters over the next few
days will generate elevated surf in mainly west and northwest
facing beaches. The elevated surf is expected to generate a high
risk of rip currents, mainly today and Tuesday.
To summarize, the beaches along the Central Coast and Ventura
County will experience elevated surf and minor tidal overflow,
while Los Angeles County and southern Santa Barbara County
beaches will experience only the minor tidal overflows.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Warning in effect until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
53-54. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 11 PM PDT this evening for zone
59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
88-350-356. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Beach Hazards Statement in effect through late Wednesday
night for zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-364. (See LAXCFWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones
346-347. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
349-351-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 353. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for
zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
PUBLIC...Gomberg/EB
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...Gomberg/Sweet
BEACHES...Sweet/Hall
SYNOPSIS...EPS
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox