High Wind in California, February 10, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1016 PM PST Wed Feb 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...09/157 PM.

A warming trend will continue across the region as high pressure
aloft builds in and a persistent offshore flow continues through
the weekend. Near record high temperatures are possible during
the peak of the heat today through Friday. Gusty north winds are
possible across parts of the area Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...09/144 PM.

This lengthy stretch of Santa Ana winds will get another shot in
the arm tonight and Thursday morning as additional energy aloft
arrives in the form of a inside slider dropping south through the
Great Basin. This one has a little more westerly track to it than
the one yesterday so we're expecting stronger upper level winds
and more cold advection that should generate stronger surface
winds. We had some areas of advisory level winds today but those
will be stronger and more widespread later tonight into tomorrow,
though not much wind expected in the LA Metro area.

Temperatures soared well into the 80s today and expecting that
each of the next few days, but with some minor day to day changes.
The arrival of cold advection Thursday could lead to some cooling,
especially interior areas, though the increased downsloping
component should mostly offset that for lower elevations. So
overall temperatures likely within a couple degrees of today and
still 15-20 deg above normal.

With offshore flow weakening quite a bit Thursday night into
Friday lower elevations will lose some of that downslope
compressional heating component and get an earlier sea breeze. So
likely at least a little cooling for coastal areas and maybe some
lower valleys as well. But still well into the 80s most areas.
Looking at the ensemble based guidance there is a 1-3 degree
cooling trend for Friday right at the beaches but very little
change elsewhere.

On Saturday we get another little surge in offshore flow. However,
only minimal increase in upper support so it's a marginal
advisory level wind event at this point. It should, though, push
back the arrival of the sea breeze and reverse whatever cooling
trend happens Friday so look for most areas Saturday to be
slightly warmer.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...09/155 PM.

Sunday will be the last day of this prolonged and impressive
winter heat wave. Offshore flow expected to weaken and we'll
likely see an earlier sea breeze arrival, but like tomorrow
probably just minor cooling near the coast but little change
inland. Santa Ana breezes will continue through the morning but
lighter and more localized than Saturday and again not impacting
the LA Metro area.

Significant cooling trend to begin Monday and continue into
Tuesday as models are still showing a fairly cold upper low
dropping through Nevada and down the Colorado River Valley. Strong
onshore trends will begin Monday with high temperatures dropping
a good 10-15 degrees for coast and valleys. Will likely see some
marine layer clouds developing over the coastal waters Monday but
likely staying away from the coast until Monday night. Even cooler
Tuesday with temps back to normal or even a little below normal.
the trajectory of this upper low is favorable for gusty north
winds to develop over the mountains. The GFS is showing 5-6mb
north gradients setting up across the Santa Ynez and Transverse
ranges, so likely some gusty winds developing across southern
Santa Barbara County and the I5 corridor, and possibly down into
some of the LA/Ventura Valleys.

Also, there are a few ensemble solutions supporting some very
light rain (a tenth of an inch or less) in parts of LA County
Tuesday as that upper low goes by. This would likely be from an
enhanced marine layer. Given the fickle nature of these sorts of
patterns and the minimal impacts have opted to leave this out of
the official forecast for now and see how models trend with the
path of the upper low.

&&

.AVIATION...10/0553Z.

At 0400Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer. The top of the
inversion was at 700 feet with 27 C.

High confidence in CAVU TAFs. Moderate confidence in winds south
of KSBA with NE to E winds building over the region. These winds
may cause LLWS Thursday morning for the LA and Ventura coasts and
valleys.

KLAX...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Moderate confidence in winds
due to gusty N to NE winds, with LLWS possible 10Z to 15Z. PIREPs
are requested to confirm the presence or absence of wind shear.
There is a 20% chance for an east wind component up to 6 kts 11Z-
19Z.

KBUR...High confidence in CAVU TAF. Moderate confidence in the
arrival time and strength of gusty NE winds. LGT ocnl MDT turbc
SFC-150 and ocnl LLWS 12Z-20Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/800 PM.

High confidence in winds and seas largely remaining below Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) levels across the outer waters and inner
waters north of Point Sal tonight through Sunday. However, there
is a 20%-30% chance of SCA level NE gusts at times Thursday
morning for the southern outer waters (PZZ676). There is then a
50% chance of SCA wind gusts for Monday.

For the inner waters south of Point Conception, northeast to east
winds will likely increase to SCA levels over the near shore
coastal waters from Port Hueneme to Malibu later tonight into
Thursday morning and early Thursday afternoon, and also possibly
for areas from Long Beach to Catalina Island. Otherwise and
elsewhere, winds and seas are expected to be below SCA levels
tonight through Sunday, followed by a 50% chance of SCA wind
gusts for Monday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for
      zones 40-41. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST Sunday for zones
      41-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST Thursday for zones
      44>46-53-54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 4 AM to 3 PM PST Thursday
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 AM to 3 PM PST Thursday
      for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SAT-WED).

Very warm conditions expected this weekend with highs near 90,
including the Los Angeles Metropolitan area. Breezy Santa Ana
winds expected Saturday. Gusty north winds possible across the
mountains and some valleys Monday into Tuesday.

&&

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox