High Wind in California, December 2, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
725 PM PST Thu Dec 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...The first of a couple of winter storms will move into
the region through Friday morning bringing heavy snow at times for
the Sierra and lesser amounts in the White Mountains. A second
system will move into the Sierra Saturday through Sunday night
bringing additional snow to the Sierra along with rain to the Owens
Valley. Some scattered showers will also be possible in the higher
elevations elsewhere. Temperatures will remain close to slightly
above normal into next week.
&&

.UPDATE...Trough axis swinging through northern California this
evening with defined package set to clear the Tahoe basin in
another 1-2 hours. Further south, plume of moisture continues to be
directed into the southern Sierra where orographic driven rain and
heavy snow are falling. Based on snow-level radars along the western
Sierra foothills the snow level appears to be around 6000 feet.
Moderate to heavy snow likely spilling over the crest into Inyo
County, but so far gauges reporting little precipitation along the
lower eastern slopes below 6000 feet. The threat of moderate to
heavy snow will continue along the eastern Sierra through 1 am
Friday then taper off behind trough axis. The trough axis will zip
east across southern Nevada in the late night hours with light,
orographically driven rain/snow favoring the Spring Mountains, Sheep
Range, plus the mountains of Lincoln and northern Mohave Counties.
That precipitation will taper off/end after 8 am Friday as the
trough axis quickly shift east into Utah/Arizona.

On going strong/gusty wind ahead of the system will continue across
southern Nevada overnight. So far, seeing gusts approaching 50 mph
in the lower part of Kyle Canyon while Angel Peak is nearing 70 mph
gust. Expect to see higher gusts develop in Red Rock Canyon later
this evening, continue through 4-6 am Friday before weakening. Some
of those stronger winds could push east into the far west valley
from Mountains Edge north to Skye Canyon.

Winter storm warning the southern Sierra of Inyo County and the wind
advisory look like they should pan out. Less confident that the
winter weather advisory for the White mountains will see
accumulations in excess of 3 inches. Will make no changes to our
products with a 6 hour of window left for accumulating snow in Inyo
County.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight.

Latest radar imagery showing a pretty good swath of moisture pushing
into central California with widespread rain and mountain snow.
There has been some light snow activity reaching the southern
Sierra, but the majority of the heavy snow is expected to reach that
area late afternoon and evening. Latest hires models have not
changed with regards to the timing and snow amounts expected for the
Sierra, but it may be a little harder to receive the amount of snow
expected for the White Mountains as most of the precipitation should
get wrung out before heading east. It's still possible to see a few
inches of snow, but overall amounts do not look as impressive as
previous model runs. Not going to make any changes to the Advisory
in place at this time. As the trough pushes east, there could be a
few rain/snow showers developing over the far northern areas of Nye
and Lincoln Counties. Amounts do not look significant and any snow
amounts should remain less than 2 inches and generally remain in the
higher elevations.

Winds have started to increase across the area with the strongest
winds expected across the western Mojave Desert and into portions of
the southern Great Basin. There shouldn't be too many significant
impacts with these winds, but will need to watch for the downslope
potential off the Spring Mountains as those south/southwest winds
could impact travel between Indian Springs and Mercury/Desert Rock
on US 95 this afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday.

After a brief break in the action Friday afternoon and evening, the
next impressive trough will be positioned off the west coast with
light precipitation potentially occurring along the southern Sierra
crest by daybreak Saturday. This system looks to be a slow-mover,
meaning it will have more time to reinvigorate an AR directing it
into central California Saturday and Saturday night. Orographic lift
combined with improved lift from the stronger wave increase
confidence in greater precipitation amounts in the Sierra than
indicated 24 hours ago.

As mentioned before, this next system is expected to be a slower
mover and will likely produce decent amounts of snow for the Sierra
once again. Because of this, we have gone ahead and issued a Winter
Storm Watch for the Sierra, generally above 7000 feet from early
Saturday morning through early Monday morning. Precipitation may
begin early Saturday morning as snow in the Owens Valley, but will
quickly change to rain after sunset. Accumulations are not expected
in the valley, but the Sierra could see a storm total between 12-18
inches above 7000 feet.

More uncertainty exists the first half of next week as models
suggest some form of a trough lingering over Nevada and California
potentially keeping some light precipitation in the mountains
through Tuesday. Temperatures forecast to warm Saturday and Sunday
ahead of the incoming trough then be at or below normal Monday-
Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Gusty southwesterly winds will persist
through the afternoon, lasting through early tomorrow morning. Peak
gusts should be around 25 knots in the early morning hours.
Scattered clouds around 6kft may develop later Friday morning and
last for a few hours, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail. At
that time winds will also decrease and begin to shift to the west.
Winds will become lighter and shift to the northeast in the
afternoon, then become variable overnight.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty southwesterly winds are expected across most of
the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Afterwards, winds
should follow a diurnal pattern by Friday morning. The possibility
for light showers, some of which may be mixed with snow, remains
through the afternoon and evening for the Owens Valley including
KBIH. Aside from the Owens Valley, mid and high clouds will filter
through the area with minimal impact on aviation.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

UPDATE...Pierce

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Pierce/Gorelow
AVIATION...Meltzer

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