Funnel Cloud in Arizona, October 4, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
207 PM MST Mon Oct 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Expect daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to
persist through the week and the weekend. Storm coverage will
become more isolated over eastern Arizona by Wednesday, before
storm potential likely expands westward through the end of the
week and over the weekend.

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.DISCUSSION...It has been an active day on radar to start the
week. Several strong storm systems have been seen across Coconino
County and Yavapai County today, and we'll continue to see
widespread storm activity throughout the afternoon/evening hours.
This active pattern is the result of a strong shortwave trough
that moved across northwest to southcentral Arizona this
afternoon. Due to the continual rainfall we've seen over the last
24 hours or so, we do have a Flash Flood Watch in effect for our
entire CWA through 11 PM MST tonight. Stay tuned to our social
media pages (Twitter and Facebook) for updated weather information
and always check your local weather before heading out for the
day!

Tuesday and Wednesday...Isolated to widespread storm potential
will be possible mostly along the Mogollon Rim and south
tomorrow. By Wednesday, the northerly flow will continue to push
drier air into the north/northwestern portion of the state,
limiting storm activity to over eastern Arizona.

Thursday onward...Showers and thunderstorms may begin to ramp back
up across central and northern Arizona. Models are beginning to
hold an agreement of additional shortwaves rotating around the
greater low pressure system. Currently, storm coverage is looking
to increase along the Mogollon Rim toward the weekend. Overall,
anticipate a wet weekend.

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.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAF package...+SHRA/TSRA will remain WDSPRD
until approximately 02Z. Stronger storms will likely produce
MVFR/IFR conditions. ISOLD SHRA will linger after 03Z, mainly
south of I-40. Winds in and around storms could become gusty, and
erratic. Around 18Z Tuesday, SHRA/TSRA will be possible along and
south of a KGCN-KINW-KSJN line. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

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.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
are expected for Tuesday, mainly along and south of the Mogollon
Rim. Storm coverage will decrease Wednesday, with best storm chances
over the White Mountains. Light northerly winds are expected outside
of any storms.

Thursday through Saturday...Daily chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms continue, mainly across eastern Arizona. Outside of
storm activity, winds will be northeast to easterly with slightly
below average temperatures.

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.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM MST this evening for AZZ004>018-037>040-
104>118-137>140.

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PUBLIC...Swenson
AVIATION...Swenson
FIRE WEATHER...Swenson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff