Wildfire in Arizona, May 7 to 15, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
300 PM MST Sat May 7 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty afternoon winds are expected each day from
Sunday continuing through much of next week. A slight moderation
of temperatures is expected starting Sunday, though temperatures
will remain above normal through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A narrow band of high clouds will move across the
area into this evening. Afternoon temperatures across the area
were mostly 1 to 4 degrees warmer than yesterday or 5 to 10
degrees above early May normals. What has changed from yesterday
is the increase in southwest winds with afternoon gusts mostly in
the 25 to 35 mph range. The increase in winds is associated with
an approaching upper level trof.

Upper level trofiness will be the dominate feature across the wrn
CONUS this week which will bring gusty winds and fire weather
concerns to the area each day.

Sunday: Red Flag warning for eastern half of the forecast area.
See fire weather section below for details. A few areas may
briefly touch wind advisory criteria but not a large enough area
for an advisory to be issued. Slightly cooler with highs mostly 2
to 5 degrees above normal.

Monday and Tuesday: Breezy afternoon winds both days with
localized fire weather concerns. See fire weather section below.
Highs Monday 3 to 5 degrees cooler than Sunday then several
degrees warmer on Tuesday.

Wednesday: Stronger southwest winds are expected with an increase
in elevated fire weather conditions. Highs at or slightly cooler
than Tuesday.

Thursday: Not as windy as Wednesday but slightly cooler.

Friday: Warmer with much less wind as upper level trofiness moves
away from the area.

Next weekend: Turning hotter.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 09/00z.
SKC-FEW clouds above 20k ft MSL through the forecast period. Surface
winds SWLY/WLY 12-18 kts with gusts to 30 kts until 08/04Z then
becoming SELY/SLY at 10 kts or less. Winds will be stronger Sunday
late morning into the afternoon out of the southwest 15-23 kts and
gusts 30-40 kts. The strongest will be at KDUG and KSAD terminals.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will increase starting this afternoon and continue each day
through much of next week, leading to an extended period of elevated
fire weather concerns through Wednesday. Critically low RH values
are expected each afternoon with poor overnight recoveries for most
areas. Very warm temperatures are expected today as highs approach
100 degrees in the lower elevations, followed by modest cooling
Sunday through the middle of next week.

While a few spots may briefly approach Red Flag thresholds for wind
today, stronger winds are expected Sunday. Thus, a Red Flag
Warning is in effect for much of southeast Arizona late Sunday
morning into Sunday evening as more widespread critical fire
weather conditions are expected. Monday could see brief Red Flag
conditions in southeast Cochise County then Tuesday winds should
remain below Red Flag levels. An increase in wind speeds Wednesday
could lead to Red Flag conditions along the AZ/NM border and
elevated conditions elsewhere.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ151>154.

&&

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