Damaging Wind in Arizona, June 25, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1226 PM PDT Sat Jun 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated thunderstorms will be possible again on
Sunday, mainly across Northwest Arizona and northern Lincoln
County. Chances for thunder will persist through midweek in
Northwest Arizona with drier conditions expected elsewhere.
Seasonable warmth will continue through midweek with a slight cool
down for the weekend. &&

.SHORT TERM...through Monday.

Any afternoon thunderstorms that develop today will dissipate
quickly after sunset. A quiet night is expected with light winds and
low temperatures a degree or two warmer than last night.

Sunday most likely will see similar conditions to today. Afternoon
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through Mohave
County and portions of Lincoln County. Thunderstorms are not
expected over the Sierra on Sunday. One thing to watch overnight
though that could influence tomorrow's precipitation chances: a few
models show a robust outflow coming out of southwest Arizona where
there is a decent moisture pool. While there is a low chance for
this to occur, if the outflow develops and pushes into potions of
southern Mohave County and the Colorado River Valley- we could see
an increase in thunderstorm activity through that area Sunday
afternoon. Main concern with any thunderstorms Sunday will still be
sudden gusty outflow winds as the low level remain dry and inverted-
V type soundings noted across the region. High temperatures on
Sunday will warm a degrees compared to the past few days.

Low confidence in the Monday forecast. Models available at that time
period are not expected about precipitation chances Monday
afternoon. However, there are hints of increasing moisture Sunday
night into Monday across portions of San Bernardino, Mohave, and
even southern Clark County. HREF PWATs and dewpoints show increases
in moisture Sunday night through that area. Ensemble meteograms
also show increasing moisture Sunday night, with multiple members
showing over 1in PWAT in place by Monday morning in locations like
Kingman, Needles, and Bullhead City. High pressure will be overhead
on Monday through, with anticyclonic flow dominating the overall
regime on Monday. Will not make changes to the precipitation
forecast at this time as confidence is too low, with current
forecast showing slight chances for afternoon thunderstorms confined
to far eastern Mohave County on Monday. Will need to watch short-
term model data as it becomes available as changes make be
necessary.

.LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.

Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement regarding the overall
synoptic pattern next week. An amplified ridge will be flattened out
across the US by mid-week. This pattern will keep our temperatures
slightly above normal and limit wind speeds. Moderate HeatRisk
expected through much of the week. Southerly flow returns mid-week
as the ridge axis shifts east. As a result, increased mid-level
moisture is expected to be pulled into southeastern portions of the
area. PoPs are still pretty low for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame,
when PWATs peak. Best chances will be in Mohave County, but any
subtle flow perturbations could expand probabilities north and west.
Later in the week, WPC Cluster analysis suggests the development of
a trough along the West Coast. This would likely increase southwest
winds and shunt the better moisture to the east. &&
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Expect typical diurnal wind trends with
south-southwest winds at 8KT or less until winds increase again late
this morning out of the south-southwest, with gusts 20-25 knots
likely. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms with
lower CIGs and sudden gusty winds are possible this afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light winds overnight into early morning with winds
following typical diurnal trends. Breezy south winds are expected
again later this morning and afternoon, becoming slightly stronger
than winds were yesterday. Expect another round for scattered
showers and thunderstorms today, with the highest potential for
thunderstorm impacts over southern Nevada and western Arizona.&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Salmen

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