Flash Flood in New Mexico, June 25, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Widespread shra and ts from KLAM-KSAF-K0E0-KLVS-KTCC moving nwd over
the north-central mtns eastward to the TX border. MVFR conditions
will follow, with localized IFR vis where the more intense ts are.
More scattered -shra elsewhere in the CWA, and many terminals have
at least vcsh. This activity will continue to coalesce its focus
through the northeastern quadrant of the state overnight. Meanwhile,
a nely wind shift from a combination of storm outflow and a backdoor
front will continue to progress south and southwestward through
northeastern and east-central NM. An east canyon wind has already
reached KABQ, and this will continue well overnight. With the
abundant moisture, there is also a chance for br and fg to develop
through parts of eastern NM where there are no showers. Light
precipitation will favor the northern mtns through the morning, with
more intense convective activity expected again Sunday afternoon
forming over the high terrain, and along the edge of the frontal bdry
through east-central and southeastern NM.

24

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.PREV DISCUSSION...247 PM MDT Sat Jun 25 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
The threat of burn scar flash flooding hits a peak this evening over
the northern burn scars, and again Sunday for more areas of the
forecast area. Monday sees this threat continue, with a steady
downtrend in storm coverage and burn scar flash flooding risk Tuesday
through the week. Monsoon storms will be hit-and-miss, but more hit
across the northeastern quadrant of the state this evening. Localized
amounts of 2” to 4” of rainfall are possible in this part of the
state between now and the end of Monday. Elsewhere, lesser amounts of
a 0.10” to 1.50” will be favored. Overall coverage of afternoon
storms begins to trend down Tuesday through the middle part of next
week.

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.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
Upper level high pressure centered over AR combined with a tropical
disturbance in the Pacific has set the stage for a reinvigoration to
monsoon activity today. Current water vapor imagery shows a healthy
plume of moisture snaking up across the Sonoran Desert, which
resulted in an early start to showers and thunderstorms across
northern and central New Mexico. PWAT values have climbed from 0.91in
Friday morning to 0.98in by today's 12Z RAOB, and are expected to
continue this climb above 1.00in through the weekend. A backdoor
front will enter the arena this evening into tonight through
northeast NM, allowing for enhanced lift and further invigoration to
convection as its surges southward and westward. This will give rain
rates a bump, adding to the potential for burn scar flash flooding,
especially across Hermits Peak / Calf Canyon. The front surges
through the gaps of the central mts, bringing gusty canyon winds to
ABQ, Santa Fe, and the Tularosa Valleys overnight. Cooling and
stabilization follow the frontal passage, bringing Sunday's highs
well below average and slightly reducing the potential for thunder
across the eastern plains that afternoon. The influence of the
easterly wave and tropical disturbance on Old Mexico's west coast
will allow for another saturated day tomorrow where storms will favor
the northern mts and areas west of the central mts. Showers will
continue into Sunday night but continued stabilization will likely
limit thunder.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
Daily rounds of afternoon storms favoring the high terrain moving
off to surrounding lower elevations holds true through the long term
period with subtle variations each day. Monday starts the week off
with an upper high developing over the Great Basin region, setting up
NNW/SSE steering flow over NM. This will favor storms developing
over the northern mountains moving southward, with more NE/SW storm
motions over the Gila region. Tuesday sees the upper high shift
eastward a bit, but continuing to favor north-to- south storm motions
over northern NM. Overall storm coverage begins to trend down
Tuesday and onward as low-level moisture begins to be used up a bit
by diurnal convection. The upper high moves more squarely over
western NM Wednesday producing slow to erratic steering flow for the
scattered afternoon storms developing that day.

Thursday and beyond sees the upper high break down with weak steering
flow remaining over the state. However, monsoon moisture looks to
keep advecting northward into western NM, favoring continued rounds
of afternoon storms favor the northwestern half of the state. The
best chances for storms over the east-central plains southward look
to be Monday and Tuesday when the north-to-south steering flow can
take storms off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains down toward that part
of the state.

12/24

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.FIRE WEATHER...
Cooler conditions in conjunction with monsoon moisture will persist
for the next week, limiting the enhancement of fire weather
conditions. Daily rounds of scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected as a series of disturbances traverse the region. High
pressure begins to build over the Great Basin on Tuesday, allowing
for a reduction in thunderstorm activity through Thursday.

12

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Current radar show showers and thunderstorms already beginning to
expand in coverage across northern and central NM. Expect this
activity to continue to increase through the afternoon hours as a
disturbance aloft migrates within monsoonal flow in the presence of
peak heating. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing wet
downbursts with erratic gusts up to 45 kt as well as small hail. A
gusty sfc cold front is expected to surge down the eastern plains
this evening and into tonight. This will bring gusty canyon winds
through the gaps of the central mts tonight from SAF southward to ABQ
and the Tularosa Valley. Showers will continue through the night,
transitioning to stratiform as the atmosphere stabilizes. Areas of
MVFR and even localized IFR conditions will be possible overnight.

12

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.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ211-214-215-229.

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