Wildfire in Arizona, April 18 to 30, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
255 AM MST Mon Apr 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and breezy conditions persist today under
high pressure. Stronger southwest winds are expected across the
region on Tuesday, remaining gusty through the week. Chances of
light precipitation return for Friday with cooler temperatures and
another round of stronger winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Upper level high pressure centered over the
Southwest today will gradually begin to shift east through the
day. This will open the door to increasing southwest winds as well
as upper level cloud cover. Look for increasing clouds through the
morning with a return of southwest breezes this afternoon. Today
is expected to be the warmest day of the week ahead with mountain
areas reaching into the 70s and lower valleys reaching 80 to 90
degrees.

Another wind event is in store on Tuesday as a shortwave feature
tracks to our north through the Great Basin. Despite variable
cloudiness with this feature, surface relative humidity will
remain low, and when combined with strong winds, will lead to
critical fire weather conditions for much of northern Arizona. The
strongest winds will occur along and north of the Mogollon Rim
where winds aloft are maximized and gusts of 40 to 50 mph are
likely. Red Flag Warnings and Wind Advisories have been issued for
Tuesday afternoon. A dry and mild west to southwest flow will
remain over Arizona through Thursday with elevated southwest
afternoon winds gusting 25 to 35 mph.

A stronger trough is forecast to deepen along the West Coast and
move through Arizona Friday/Friday night. This feature has been
trending slightly further north and drier, but nonetheless, will
still bring a chance for light showers to areas mainly north of
the Mogollon Rim. Another round of gusty southwest winds will
likely be the bigger impact, in addition to about a 10 degree drop
in temperatures on Friday. Freezing morning low temperatures are
looking likely in the high country over the weekend with
gradually warming daytime highs.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAF package...VFR conditions persist for the
next 24 hours with SCT to BKN mid to high-level cloud cover. Light
and variable winds early this morning will give way to southwest
winds 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts from 17Z-03Z Tues. Lighter
winds return thereafter. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The very warm and dry conditions continue for today
with stronger southwest winds. Near critical fire weather conditions
are expected for this afternoon due to the widespread single digit
RH and southwest winds with gusts up to 25 mph. Even stronger
southwest winds are anticipated for Tuesday with gusts in the 40 to
50 mph range coupled with RH below 15%. This will result in
widespread critical fire weather conditions.

Wednesday through Friday...Above average temperatures persist for
Wednesday and Thursday with afternoon fire weather conditions
remaining near critical. A gradual upward trend in afternoon RH is
expected through the period with gusty, 20 to 35 mph, southwest
winds. Precipitation chances look minimal for Friday with cooler
temperatures likely.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST
Tuesday FOR AZZ105>114-139-140.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday FOR AZZ004>007-
009>017-039-040.

&&

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...LaGuardia
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff