Alaska, 2022

Flood and Coastal Flood in Alaska, September 14 to 18, 2022

September 14 to 18, 2022 · NWS AFC · 6 events in 4 counties and zones

The remnants of Typhoon Merbok in the northern Pacific Ocean began approaching the Bering Sea on Thursday, September 15, 2022. This storm transitioned into an extra-tropical area of low pressure and strengthened as it traversed the Bering Sea from southwest to northeast.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.

The remnants of Typhoon Merbok in the northern Pacific Ocean began approaching the Bering Sea on Thursday, September 15, 2022. This storm transitioned into an extra-tropical area of low pressure and strengthened as it traversed the Bering Sea from southwest to northeast. Impacts were first observed with high winds in the Central and Western Aleutians early on Friday, September 16. The storm continued to move northeast and peaked in intensity on Friday with a minimum central pressure of 937 mb at 4:00 AM, which is the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Bering Sea for the month of September (data since 1950). More remarkably, it appears to have been the lowest pressure recorded for any time of year along portions of its track. The storm slowly weakened but remained very powerful as it moved through the Bering Strait on Saturday morning September 17, taking a perfect track to bring significant coastal flooding to the northern Bering Sea coast. The storm continued to move northeast into the Chukchi Sea Saturday afternoon, September 17 and stalled out, gradually dissipating through Tuesday, September 20 over the Chukchi Sea.

The impacts on Friday were mainly over the Bering Sea and the Pribilof Islands in the form of high winds and seas. Buoy 46035, located at 57.016N, 177.703W in the Bering Sea recorded wind gusts to 76 mph and seas of 52 feet Friday morning. By Friday evening, and into the weekend, the low moved towards the western Alaskan coastline, bringing high winds and near record storm surge.

What made this storm unusual was threefold: Storm strength, storm track, and the speed of its movement. As Merbok’s remnants approached the Bering Sea, an eastward transitioning disturbance reinforced the storm’s strength by infusing its energy into Merbok’s remnants, while merging cold, dry air aloft (pulled from continental east Asia), with the tropical surface air below. This interaction increased the storm’s strength exponentially, while facilitating the storm’s extra-tropical transition. While it is common to get Hurricane-Force winds during the Fall and Winter in these extra-tropical systems, the strength of the storm was historic for the month of September. Additionally, the Bering Sea’s strongest storms typically occur when there is some sea ice present to buffer and protect the coastline from wave action. In September, there is no sea ice in the Bering or Chukchi Seas, leaving the coastline vulnerable to wind driven waves, along with the storm surge.

Also of note were the storm’s track and speed of movement. Merbok tracked from the Southwest Bering Sea in a nearly straight line into the Bering Strait at a speed that induced a dynamic fetch. This means that the storm moved at the same speed as the waves it was generating, causing winds to continue to build the same areas of high seas, thus resulting in sea heights over 50 feet. The straight line of the track to the Bering Strait meant that these huge seas, once generated, were sustained by the storm until it deposited these seas into the Western Alaska Coastline. This is what caused the record breaking storm surge at some locations.

A myriad of impacts were noted across the West Alaska Coastline. While waters rose in many villages, homes became uninhabitable or lifted off their foundations, and roads were washed out, local community leaders have stressed that many of their villages have sustained a serious loss in their way of life. Of note is the fishing fleet loss, and the many fish camps and smoke houses damaged or lost across many villages. This is more than just a physical loss of possessions and property. These camps have been in families for generations. This is a loss of food security and a place to teach traditional practices and values to the kids.

Flood specific:|High winds and heavy rain from the remnants of Typhoon Merbok caused flooding from heavy rain and wind driven backwater along the Kuskokwim River from Bethel to the Kuskokwim Delta. Heavily impacted were the towns of Napakiak and Oscarville which are located below Bethel, the nearest river gage location. Minor flooding was also likely around the Brown Slough in Bethel. Many small villages in ungaged locations were impacted from this event.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 14, 3:54 AM AKST, 11 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 14, 3:54 AM AKST, 11 hours 13 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
454 AM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

On satellite imagery there is a low over mainland Alaska with a
remnant frontal boundary and a low over the Western Bering. The
longwave pattern features a deep trough axis over Southcentral and
the Gulf Of Alaska. There is a jet core of 80 knots east of Cold
Bay and a second jet core north of Attu Island with an estimated
magnitude of 100 knots. On radar there is light precipitation
over portions of Southwest Alaska, Southcentral Alaska and the
Gulf Of Alaska. Also on satellite imagery although distant this
morning, there are multiple tropical systems in the West Pacific
Basin. The one of concern is Typhoon Merbok. Merbok will impact
the Aleutians and other parts of Alaska later this week.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in decent agreement through the next 24 hrs. Then model
divergence emerges in the Northwest Pacific regarding the
intensity and the timing of Merbok's extra-tropical transition.
The global models all have a major low pushing across the Bering
followed by Merbok becoming extratropical later this week and
moving into the Bering. As newer model data becomes available
anticipate updates to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...The Kenai Radar (PAHG) continues to ping onto light
precipitation over northern Cook Inlet and Knik Arm this morning.
Cigs will dip below 5,000 feet at times and light showers are
possible at times. The potential for fog near or at PANC are
actively being monitored and amendments will be made as needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
2: Today through Fri morning)...

The longwave trough will continue to sit over the region today.
An upper level low has formed near the northern Alaskan Range.
While a weak shortwave extends across the Susitna valley. These
two features will produce showers today from the Susitna valley
southward toward the Mat valley and Anchorage area as well as the
western Kenai Peninsula. Tonight into Thursday a transitory ridge
will move across the area. This will allow for some sunny breaks
this afternoon and sunshine through at least mid-day Thursday. By
Thursday afternoon and evening a shortwave will bring more rain
from the Susitna valley and southwards towards Anchorage extending
into the Kenai Peninsula. The shortwave will move across
Southcentral Wednesday night and Thursday morning spreading the
rain eastward. Winds along Turnagain Arm and the Copper River
Basin will increase Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens up.
The Knik valley winds will also increase on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday morning)...

The last remnants of low that was nearly stationary over
Southwest for the past two days is moving south over over the
Aleutian Range and into the Western Gulf. A few remnant showers
exist over Southern Bristol Bay and the northwest slopes of the
Kilbuck Mountains, but otherwise most of the region is clear of
precipitation. However, fog and low stratus blanket most of the
region and will continue to do so for the rest of the day today.

Rain will return as a rapidly strengthening storm moves east along
~61N latitude today and tomorrow. The system's front will reach
the coast this evening, bringing another round of rain and
southerly to southwesterly winds through the night. A few
shortwaves streaming east with the jet stream, to the south of
the low, will also help to enhance rainfall rates over Bristol
Bay through Thursday evening, while the rest of the region returns
to a more showery regime. The influence from this system will
wane overnight Thursday, but the next storm will be right on it's
tail.

A very strong low pressure system, which will become the extra-
tropical remnants of Typhoon Merbok, will send it's front into
Southwest Alaska Friday morning. The rain will be heavy, but
overall not long lasting as the front moves through. The main
impact to the region, particularly the Kuskokwim Delta, will be
strong winds and elevated surf/storm surge. The current forecast
is for winds of 50 to 65 mph along the coast with gusts to 75 mph
possible. Farther inland areas like Bethel could also receive
winds in the 45 to 60 mph range. Winds will peak in the overnight
hours and slowly subside through the day on Saturday. Storm surge
guidance indicates some areas could receive surge between 3 and 6
ft above normal highest tide line. Stay tuned as we dial in the
details over the coming days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Saturday morning)...

A weak and elongated area of low pressure will move east along the
Aleutian Chain today, bringing small craft westerlies and rain. To
the north, a rapidly intensifying low is forming quickly over
Russian waters, which will move east towards St. Matthew Island as
a storm force low through today. Focus then shifts to what will be
the extra-tropical remnants of Typhoon Merbok, which will cross
the Aleutian Chain as a Hurricane Force low between Shemya and
Amchitka. For now the core of the strongest winds appears to be
over the widely uninhabited Rat Islands, however there still
remains some uncertainty in the exact low track and how it will
interact with a shortwave moving west out of Kamchatka.
Regardless, gusts upwards of 75 mph are still possible/expected
over the populated islands as well. As the low moves north over
the Chain it will continue to deepen, bottoming out somewhere
between 935 and 945 mb Friday morning. It will then deviate it's
northerly track to the east, which will bring the Pribilof
Islands into the southern edge of the strong wind corridor to the
southeast of the low center. A High Wind Watch is now in effect
for the Pribilof Islands from Friday morning through Friday night
for southwest winds 50 to 65 mph with gusts up to 85 mph possible.
As the storm continues its northeasterly trajectory towards St.
Lawrence Island on Saturday, winds will slowly diminish over the
central Bering.

&&

.MARINE...
The big marine issue for the second half of this week will be
Typhoon Merbok.It will weaken under typhoon force before it gets
to the Bering Sea, but will rapidly re-intensify and go through
the extra-tropical transition as it ingests cold air from eastern
Russia Wednesday night. There is still some uncertainty as to
the exact track and strength of this storm as it moves through
the Bering, but the center of the low should pass between Adak and
Attu sometime Thursday, though it is looking like closer to Attu
at this time. Regardless, it will then track from the Western
Bering Sea to the vicinity of Norton Sound on Saturday. Expect
widespread storm force winds across the Bering with areas of
Hurricane Force winds. The hurricane force winds are most likely
from the Western Aleutians to the Central Bering Sea between
Thursday night and Friday night. Seas are also expected to build
rapidly with widespread 30 to 40 ft seas across the Bering with 40
to 50 ft seas associated with the strongest winds. This will be a
major Bering Sea Storm and mariners are encouraged begin preparing
for it now.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Fall has arrived and with it comes unsettled conditions across
Southern Alaska through the extended period, with brief reprieves
provided by weak transient ridging. Several bouts of intense
winds and rainfall expected for both Southwestern Alaska and
Southcentral.

By Friday evening, the remnants of Typhoon Merbok will have made
its way across the Aleutians and be bearing down on Southwest
Alaska. Heavy winds and rainfall associated with this low will be
of concern across the Bering with heightened focus on the Central
Aleutians, Pribilofs, Nunivak Island, and Southwest Alaska through
Sunday afternoon. Southwesterly gales, storm-force, and areas of
hurricane-force winds possible Saturday morning expected to
slowly ease into Sunday evening. Model discrepancies aggravate
forecasting the core of highest winds. Tuesday 12Z Canadian model
advances the storm into the Y-K Delta early Saturday morning, while
GFS and Euro solutions pull the storm motion more to the north,
focusing the winds over Nunivak Island. Either solution still
represent favorable conditions for high surf and coastal flooding
along the Southwest coast for the early weekend. Precipitation and
winds associated with the remnants of Merbok expected to slowly
diminish Sunday.

From Sunday morning, a respite in precipitation for Southcentral
is expected to persist through Monday afternoon. With some
discrepancies, guidance then suggests the introduction and
intensification of a North Pacific low south of the Alaska
Peninsula, to move northeastward towards Southcentral. This system
will provide strong precipitation across the Southcentral
coastline pushing inland. Precipitation associated with this
system expected to persist through Tuesday. As the system
approaches Kodiak Island, southeasterly flow promotes the
development of Barrier jet winds from Yakutat to the Prince
William Sound Tuesday morning.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch 195 187-191.
MARINE...Storm 411 412 177 178 185. Gale 413 414 175 176 181.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PJS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RLC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...CL

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

4 high wind, 1 coastal flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Western Aleutians

When
September 14, 3:07 PM AKST to September 16, 6:05 AM AKST
Where
Western Aleutians forecast zone
Measured
60 kt (69 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Buoy

Shemya (PASY) observation site went out about 5:00PM, so missed peak of the event as the strongest winds associated with Merbok approached the western Aleutians. Buoy 46071, located just east of Amchitka on 09 / 15 at 5:40 pm reported 40.8G60.2kts (69.3mph). Waves reported to 40 feet by buoy camera. Strongest winds were expected between Adak and Shemya, so likely much stronger winds were missed by observational sites in this vicinity, especially with the PASY outage.

High Wind, Pribilof Islands

When
September 15, 4:02 AM AKST to September 17, 12:00 AM AKST
Where
Pribilof Islands forecast zone
Measured
64 kt (74 mph) measured gust
Reported by
ASOS

Buoy 46035 (250 nm West of Saint Paul Island) reported a pressure of 28.08 inches (950mb) Sept 16/1650UTC (850 AM) as the center of Merbok reached it's closest proximity to the Pribilof Islands before continuing northeast. Wind gusts peaked at around 74 mph at the PASN ASOS, while waves observed to 46 feet by about 7 AM Sept 16th. At 950 AM seas up to 52 feet were observed by the closest buoy.

High Wind, Central Aleutians

When
September 15, 4:02 AM AKST to September 16, 6:05 AM AKST
Where
Central Aleutians forecast zone
Measured
70 kt (81 mph) measured gust
Reported by
ASOS

Adak (ADKA2) recorded a 81mph gust at 3:24 AM Sept. 16, 2022 and first hit 75mph at 5:36 PM Sept. 15, 2022 as Merbok passed to the north of the central Aleutians and pushed strong southwest winds across this portion of the Aleutian Islands. The last 80 mph wind gust at ADKA2 occurred at 654 AM Sept 16th, and winds decreased afterwards. Several calls were made out from NWS Anchorage to Adak to determine any damage, but these attempts were unsuccessful in reaching any residents.

High Wind, Kuskokwim Delta

When
September 15, 4:02 AM AKST to September 17, 9:00 AM AKST
Where
Kuskokwim Delta forecast zone
Measured
70 kt (81 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Mariner

Strong onshore and southwesterly winds moved into the Kuskokwim Delta from the evening of September 16th to the morning of September 17th as Merbok's center moved up towards Saint Lawrence Island and approached the Seward Peninsula. At 6am AKDT September 17th, Arctic Air (tug boat) reported winds of 45 mph with gusts reaching 80 mph on the Kinak River. Toksook Bay reported the highest measured gust from ground ASOS/AWOS during the event, with a gust to 61kts at about 9 pm on September 16th. The majority of damage observed across the Kuskokwim Delta was due to coastal flooding/erosion rather than the direct effects from the winds.

Coastal Flood, Kuskokwim Delta

When
September 15, 9:40 AM AKST to September 18, 9:14 AM AKST
Where
Kuskokwim Delta forecast zone
Reported by
Public

A severe storm surge moved into coastal areas of the Kuskokwim Delta during the height of onshore winds and high waves battering the coast as Merbok's center moved northeast towards the Seward Peninsula on the evening of September 16th. Some of the most severe impacts as far as coastal flooding across the Kuskokwim Delta were focused in Newtok. Patrick LeMay reported the entire community was inundated with water. Residents were cut off from the airport. They estimated 100 feet of shoreline was lost and that the riverbank eroded between 10 and 20 feet overnight. 12 homes flooded with about 35 people without a home to go back to; no homes floated off their foundation. About 60 to 70 people needed temporary shelter at the Newtok school. A 5,000 gallon fuel tank washed away; empty fuel tanks and boats floated to the other side of the river, and a handful of boats sank. Serious river erosion also was also reported.

Flood, Kuskokwim Delta

When
September 16, 10:00 PM AKST to September 18, 12:00 AM AKST
Where
Kuskokwim Delta County, 1.66 mi WSW of Napakiak to 5.85 mi WSW of Bethel
Cause
Heavy Rain / Tropical System
Reported by
Social Media
Coordinates
60.689, -161.994

Coastal surge caused high water on the lower Kuskokwim River with moderate flooding impacts along the lower reaches (Napakiak and Oscarville, AK), and minor flooding impacts in the Bethel, AK area. Mark Leary (Bethel Search and Rescue) reported water flowing up to one foot above the riverbank across (Brown) slough and boat harbor while patrolling the area. Elsewhere on the east side of town the main road was reported submerged.|Twitter post of Bethel and Napakiak flooding: https://twitter.com/MarkSpringer/status/1571228834200166400|https://twitter.com/desertgranite/status/1571191312095019009.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Coastal Flood
Flooding of coastal land by the sea, from storm surge, onshore wind or high tides.
Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Alaska in 2022Every state in 2022This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, September 2022

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1059044, 1059046, 1059096, 1060588, 1060589, 1060546.