High Wind in Alaska, January 14 to 15, 2022

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
528 AM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

.SHORT TERM.../Through Fri night/ Yesterday's gale force front has
move into Canada overnight. In the wake of it comes a gale force
low coming up from the S. The northern edge of the rain bands
traveled quite far south with the northern edge eventually
stopping around Kupreanof Island. As a result, most of the
northern half of the panhandle dried out overnight with a little
patchy fog showing up at Yakutat, and Hoonah early this morning.
The rain is just starting its march north again this morning,
ahead of the next low, with the northern edge passing Sitka and
approaching Angoon as of 5 am.

Precipitation is expected to spread over the rest of the northern
panhandle through the morning hours as the next low moves north.
Rain will be the primary precip type as temperatures remain above
freezing for most areas this morning, though the higher elevation
areas of the Haines and Klondike Highways will be cold enough to
see snow (A winter weather advisory remains in effect for both
highways for around 4 inches of snow mainly this afternoon and
evening). Total QPF over the next 24 hours has not changed all
that much. Around 1 to 2 inches of rain (highest in the central
and southern panhandle) is expected through Fri night.

As for winds, The southern panhandle will be the place under the
gun today and tonight. The first period will be with the initial
front around midday, and the second will be from the second wrap
this evening as the low begins its approach to the coast. Low
track has not changed from the previous forecast (it is still
heading toward Cape Edgecombe by late tonight), so little change
in the wind forecast overall as well. High wind warnings remain up
for the southern panhandle as a result.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Tuesday night/...A weakening surface
low makes landfall Saturday morning somewhere in the vicinity of
Sitka and finishes its journey through the panhandle as it lifts
as an open trough. Winds will continue to be strong, mainly across
the southern zones, but expect wind directions over the inner
channels to be erratic as the low moves through. Rain will briefly
diminish, before increasing again Sunday as another wave
approaches the southern panhandle. Showers will continue across
the north with onshore flow continuing. Rainfall amounts in the
1-2 inch range are expected for the southern panhandle, up to an
inch or so for the north. Snow levels remain high through Monday
averaging 500-2000 feet north, 1500-3000 feet south. The only
real snow possibility remains on the Klondike and Haines
highways, but accumulations should be light.

Monday and Tuesday are looking rather quiet across the panhandle
with diminishing showers from north to south Sunday night into
Monday. With offshore flow developing, a break in the
precipitation looks likely, even breaks in the clouds. With that
does come a risk of fog, especially with the snowpack and recent
precipitation, so added fog across many areas for Monday morning.
Temperatures look to cool with the offshore flow and breaks in the
clouds, with highs near to slightly below freezing and lows in
the 20s. Nothing like the frigid air we had over the holidays.

Looking past Tuesday, the active pattern continues to prove a
challenge to resolve with a high degree of accuracy. The forecast
becomes increasingly murky as model agreement at the synoptic
level loses cohesion. Signs points to the continuation of the
active pattern, though models disagree on whether this will take
the form of waves entering the panhandle or more organized fronts.
Ensembles are indicative of a slight cool down for much of the
area through at least the first part of next week, though likely
not anywhere near as cold as it has been for much of the past few
weeks. There are also some signs that this will be short lived as
a warmup follows-though any warmup will likely be accompanied by
more precipitation, and ensembles have started to hint at higher
chances of precipitation through much of the second half of the
week.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for AKZ017-019>029.
     High Wind Warning until 6 AM AKST Saturday for AKZ027-028.
     Strong Wind through this evening for AKZ023.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ018-
     019.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036-041>043-051-310.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-031>035-052-053.

&&

EAL/BFL/GFS

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