Damaging Winds in Alabama, March 31, 2022

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
136 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Friday]

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will sweep across
the terminals through this morning. Preceding the storms,
expect LLWS, with cigs gradually lowering to MVFR/IFR. The
storms are expected to reach TLH 12-14z, and should be most
intense for terminals west of TLH, where gusts in excess
of 50 knots are possible. Expect a brief period of LIFR in
association with the storms. Outside of thunderstorms,
southerly winds gusting around 30 kts will veer to westerly
and gradually decrease with the passage of a cold front today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [907 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Thursday]...

A line of potent severe thunderstorms is now crossing the
Mississippi River into the state of MS. This line will reach NW
FL and SE AL during the overnight hours. When it reaches our
service area, this line will be moving into a weakly to moderately
unstable air mass. However, wind fields will be screaming, in
response to a deepening low center moving across the Mid-South and
Ohio Valley. 1000-500 mb bulk shear will run in the 50-70 knot
range. A southerly low- level jet of 50-60 knots will develop
after sunset, overtopped by SW 500 mb flow of 55-70 knots. The
strength of shear will really be incredible, and the overlap of
weather parameters favorable to tornadoes is substantial over our
Central Time Zone counties. The main line of storms will be
capable of embedded tornadoes, but any discrete thunder cells that
form in advance of the line will be capable of becoming powerful
supercell storms in their own respect.

Overall, the line of storms will lose its worst punch as it
crosses the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola Rivers around sunrise,
but some severe storms remain possible. Daytime heating on
Thursday could cause some re-formation of storms along the I-75
corridor in south Georgia around mid-day. Otherwise, the main line
will sag south through the southeast Big Bend in the afternoon.
Upper level support will be orphaning the storms at that point, so
weakening will continue for storms further south.

The SPC Moderate Risk now clips our far western counties, meaning
Coffee and Geneva in Alabama, and Walton, Holmes in Florida.
Enhanced Risk extends east to the near Chattahoochee and
Apalachicola Rivers. The recent Day 2 outlook update modestly
increased tornado probabilities into the Eastern Time Zone after
sunrise on Thursday morning.

Other concerns will be with high surf along the south-facing
coast. Swimmers, just stay out of the water. Surf heights around
10 feet are nothing to mess with.

Coastal flooding is a concern, with moderate coastal flooding
expected east of Apalachicola to the mouth of the Suwanee River.
See hydro section for more details.

In closing, folks in the Central Time Zone should ensure you have
a way to get warnings during the overnight hours tonight. Leave
your weather radio on, and/or leave off the Do Not Disturb feature
on your phone.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Night Through Friday Night]...

The line of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to track
east through our eastern counties into the SE Big Bend Thursday
night. The severe threat will diminish through the night Thursday
into Friday. The cold front behind the line of storms is expected to
slow as it makes its way through the SE Big Bend into the peninsula.
This will allow for showers to linger on Friday, mainly over the
marine areas. Low temperatures on Thursday night will mostly be
in the mid 50s, and low 50s in our GA and AL counties. But, highs
Friday will warm up to the low 70s in AL and GA, with mid- upper
70s for the FL panhandle and SE Big Bend. Precip Thursday night
will have moved to the SE Big Bend, where PoPs max at 70% in the
extreme SE Big Bend but being less than 20% from Tallahassee to
Valdosta line and west/northwest.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

We will be in between major systems this weekend, allowing for
more benign weather. A few shortwave troughs will be passing
through which may allow for showers to develop, mainly south of
I-10. Mid and upper level ridging will build for Sunday and
Monday. Our next storm system will develop ahead of an upper level
shortwave trough Tuesday and push into our region through the end
of the Long Term. Forecast certainty is only medium at this point
given that it's a week away.

We can expect a gradual warming into the upper 70s/low 80s over the
weekend into the start of the work week. PoPs will be higher this
weekend ranging from 30% around I-10 and increasing to 60% over our
marine zones for Saturday. It will clear out to the east through the
day on Sunday. Moisture return will begin to increase Monday evening
into Tuesday. PoPs begin to increase Monday evening with a 70%
chance for most of the Tri-State region Tuesday through Wednesday.

.MARINE...

Buoy 42039 has recently been gusting over gale-force, and Buoy
42036 saw its seas rise quickly to 8 feet. Conditions are
currently deteriorating over the waters.

Southerly breezes will continue to strengthen through
tonight, reaching near-gale levels with frequent gale-force
gusts. Significant wave heights will peak at over 12 feet west of
Apalachicola. A intense squall line of thunderstorms will cross
the waters late tonight and Thursday morning, followed by a cold
frontal passage on Thursday afternoon and evening. The front will
then stall south of the waters this weekend, and a weak wave of
low pressure will ride east across the Gulf on Saturday.

.FIRE WEATHER...

With windy conditions still in place tonight, avoid those back
yard burns until after it rains early Thursday.

Late tonight and Thursday, an intense line of thunderstorms will
cross the districts, likely producing some wind damage. The
greatest risk of downed trees will be over Southeast Alabama and
Northwest Florida. A widespread wetting rain is also expected.

A slow-moving cold front will cross the districts on Thursday. RH
values are only expected to drop into the 40-50% range behind the
front on Thursday and into the 30-40% range on Friday. Winds will
become more manageable on Friday and through the weekend behind
the cold front areawide.

.HYDROLOGY...

Moderate coastal flooding is expected through Thursday east of
Apalachicola, while minor coastal flooding is expected from
Apalachicola westward.

The strong ongoing southerly winds will continue into early
Thursday, pushing water into Apalachee Bay. Peak water levels are
expected with the overnight high tide around 2-4 am ET Thursday
and again between 2-4pm ET Thursday afternoon. Model guidance
suggests the potential of 2-4 feet above mean higher high water,
which is a good approximation of inundation along the immediate
coast. In fact, the 12z PETSS guidance favors inundation of MHHW
of greater than 3 feet inundation at the head of the bay.

Approaching storm system is expected to move through the region
late tonight and into Thursday. The heaviest precipitation is
expected to be across southeast Alabama and Northwest Florida.
Even so, this system is expected to be moving fairly quickly,
limiting widespread rainfall totals to 1-2 inches, with isolated
heavier amounts near 4 inches possible. Given recent wet
conditions some isolated flash flooding is possible, but these
amounts are unlikely to lead to riverine flooding.

Later this weekend a secondary wave of low pressure will develop
along the stalled frontal boundary in the Gulf. This system could
lead to some rainfall, mainly south of I-10. However, the odds of
heavy rainfall are decreasing.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by
calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   78  54  77  51  79 /  90  10   0  10  40
Panama City   75  56  74  55  74 /  70   0   0  10  40
Dothan        78  49  72  48  75 /  30   0   0   0  20
Albany        79  51  74  48  77 /  90   0   0   0  20
Valdosta      77  55  76  51  79 /  90  10   0   0  30
Cross City    79  60  79  55  78 /  80  50  10  10  50
Apalachicola  74  57  74  56  73 /  90  10   0  10  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla.

     Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ this morning for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Jackson-Leon-Liberty-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon
     for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-
     Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee Bay or
     Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to
     Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee
     River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Coastal waters
     from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Montgomery
LONG TERM...Montgomery
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Haner