A series of strong slow moving fronts brought periods of heavy rain along with strong winds. This resulted in high surf, coastal and river flooding.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
A series of strong slow moving fronts brought periods of heavy rain along with strong winds. This resulted in high surf, coastal and river flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 12, 8:30 AM PST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTION
National Weather Service Portland OR
830 AM PST Mon Jan 12 2021
.SYNOPSIS...A quasi stationary front is expected to produce periods
of moderate to heavy rain through Wednesday for the potential for
river, rural, and urban flooding. Strong winds are expected along
the coast today and tonight, with breezy conditions for the
Willamette Valley this evening. Large surf and high tides will
result in hazardous conditions for the beaches and low-lying coastal
areas through Wednesday. Dry weather on Thursday will allow rivers
to recede before the next weaker front that is expected Thursday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...Rain with periods of breezy
winds are the main weather concerns today through Wednesday coupled
with high surf and minor tidal overflow flooding. A quasi-stationary
front fueled by an atmospheric river of moisture will continue
producing moderate to heavy rain across the region through early
Wednesday morning. Lows moving along the front will result in
periods of stronger winds and enhanced orographic rain. The first
low is occurring early this morning when wind gusts of 45-55 mph
have been observed. Rain was enhanced with this low with the focus
of heaviest rain early this morning is over extreme SW Washington
and NW Oregon.
Rain gages have reported 6 hour rainfall totals between 1.5 and 2
inches across the higher terrain, and at least one station in the
Willapa Hills (WA) reported a half of an inch of rain between 1 and
2 AM. The front is making its way inland this morning and expect
this heavy rain to extend inland to the Cascades and further South
into Oregon this morning through this afternoon.
The next low will produce even stronger winds tonight into early
Wednesday, and have more of a southern focus for the winds and heavy
rain. A high wind warning has been issued for the coast from mid
morning today through midnight tonight to account for the periods of
expected strong winds. There will be a period of gusty winds inland
this afternoon and evening with gusts of 40-45 mph possible for the
Willamette Valley. Models are in good consensus on the front moving
inland Wednesday with rain rapidly ending in its wake Wednesday
afternoon and evening. Forecast rainfall totals from this morning
through Wednesday morning are 3 to 7 inches across the higher
terrain and 1 to 2 inches for the interior lowlands. See the
HYDROLOGY discussion below for hydrologic concerns related to this
atmospheric river event.
Beach hazards will continue through Wednesday, with a combination of
tidal overflow and sneaker wave potential Tuesday and Wednesday, and
a bonus high surf on Tuesday. The forecast total high tide at Toke
Point is 12 feet Tuesday afternoon, and 11 feet Wednesday afternoon.
Higher river levels may contribute to minor coastal flooding around
these high tides.
Colder air will fill in behind the front on Wednesday with snow
levels lowering to around 3000 feet. There is a rapid decrease in
moisture flux when the snow levels lower, and do not expect much
snow production. Wednesday night will be relatively cooler with
minimum temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Patchy valley fog is
likely late Wednesday night as high pressure builds over the area
and skies start to clear. The high pressure will result in dry
weather Wednesday night and Thursday. East winds will develop early
Thursday morning and increase in the afternoon as the next front
approaches. A Dalles to Troutdale pressure gradient of 5 to 7 mph
could produce 25 to 25 mph winds through the Columbia Gorge and east
Portland metro area. ~TJ
.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday...Another front is
expected to move onshore Thursday evening. Precipitable water values
are expected to be around an inch with this front, and models are
forecasting IVT between 250 and 500 kg/ms indicating the possibility
for a weak atmospheric river. The jet dynamics are weaker with this
front, and do not anticipate high rainfall production regardless of
the available moisture. The front should move through the area
rather quickly and over by Friday afternoon with rainfall totals
likely remaining below an inch even across the terrain favored
areas. Snow levels will be at or above 5000 feet and do not
anticipate much if any snow from this front. High pressure rebuilds
Friday night and Saturday for a brief period of dry weather. in the
wake of this front. Models are in good agreement on another non
impressive front Saturday night through Sunday followed by dry
weather next Monday.
~TJ
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Mainstem rivers along the SW Washington and NW Oregon
coasts are rising this morning in response to the heavy rain
overnight. The only river at this point forecast to rise above flood
stage is the Grays River at Rosburg, in which a Flood Warning has
been issued for. Other coastal rivers are currently forecast to rise
above baneful, but just shy of flood stage including the Willapa
River at Willapa, the Naselle River, the Wilson River at Tillamook,
the Nehalem River at Foss, The Siletz river at Siletz, and the
Siuslaw River at Mapleton. The inland rivers will likely see rises
later today as the heavy rain expands across the area, and expect
there will be more flood warnings issued later today.
Besides Mainstem rivers, Small streams and creeks will also rise,
and possibly flood today, and minor urban flooding in poorly drained
areas are possible. Will continue the Flood Watch for the same areas
to account for all of the flooding concerns. The saturated soils
will also likely need to land slides. ~TJ
&&
.AVIATION...An atmospheric river will bring periods of
rain and a mix of primarily IFR and MVFR conditions along the coast
and MVFR and VFR conditions inland. As southerly to easterly winds
temporarily weaken later today, brief IFR conditions are not out of
the question inland. Nonetheless, southerly winds should strengthen
this evening and result in conditions trending back towards a mix of
MVFR and VFR thresholds. There will likely be a short lived period
of IFR to MVFR conditions and gusty winds just ahead and along a
cold front that appears poised to impact most terminals between 03-
09z Wednesday. Expect precipitation to turn more showery and
conditions to trend primarily VFR after frontal passage.
For detailed regional Pac NW weather information, go online to:
http://weather.gov/zse
KPDX AND APPROACHES...An atmospheric river will bring periods of
rain and a mix of primarily MVFR and VFR conditions. As easterly
winds weaken later today, IFR conditions are not out of the question
with the continuing rain. Nonetheless, southerly winds should take
hold and result in conditions trending back towards a mix of MVFR
and VFR thresholds. There will likely be a short lived period of IFR
to MVFR conditions and gusty winds just ahead and along a cold front
that appears poised to impact the terminal between 05-07z Wednesday.
Expect precipitation to turn more showery and conditions to trend
primarily VFR after frontal passage. /Neuman
&&
.MARINE...A front will slowly shift southeastward towards the
region today into tonight. Weak waves riding along this front will
temporarily enhance and decrease winds periodically across the
waters through this evening. A coastal jet will likely enhance winds
within 10-20 NM of the coast by at least 5-10 kt when compared to
winds farther offshore during this time. A period of storm force
wind gusts are ongoing early this morning, but should temporarily
decrease later this morning. There may be another spike in the winds
around midday to early this afternoon before yet another lull in the
winds occurs. However, there are some suggestions that a final push
of winds, potentially the strongest of the bunch, will occur across
the central waters of Oregon and potentially all the way up to the
Columbia River near the coast. As a result, opted to just extend the
Storm Warning early this morning through this evening to cover this
potential hazard. Otherwise, expect seas to generally be in the 20-
25 ft range through tonight as a longer period westerly swell and
wind waves/fresh swell keep seas elevated.
High pressure will then begin to shift across the waters Wednesday
and Thursday and allow seas to subside below 10 ft late Wednesday
night or Thursday. However, the next front appears poised to impact
the waters Thursday night or early Friday with a round of Small
Craft Advisory level wind gusts. This should result in seas climbing
back into the teens Friday into next weekend. An even weaker front
will be possible over the weekend before high pressure shifts more
squarely over the region early next week. /Neuman
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Cascade Foothills in
Lane County-Cascades in Lane County-Central Coast Range of
Western Oregon-Central Columbia River Gorge-Central Oregon
Coast-Central Willamette Valley-Coast Range of Northwest
Oregon-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia-North
Oregon Coast-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-Northern
Oregon Cascades-South Willamette Valley-Western Columbia
River Gorge.
High Surf Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for Central
Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Central
Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.
High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 2 AM PST Wednesday
for Central Oregon Coast.
High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to midnight PST
tonight for North Oregon Coast.
WA...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Central Columbia
River Gorge-Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz
County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington
Cascades-South Washington Coast-Western Columbia River
Gorge-Willapa Hills.
High Surf Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for South
Washington Coast.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for South
Washington Coast.
PZ...Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Waters from Cape
Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR from 10 to 60 NM.
Storm Warning until midnight PST tonight for Coastal waters
from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 10 NM-
coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60
NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for Columbia
River Bar.
&&
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
646 AM PST TUE JAN 12 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 WSW OYSTERVILLE 46.54N 124.05W
01/12/2021 M2.78 INCH PACIFIC WA TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR TOTAL.
&&
CNPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
728 AM PST TUE JAN 12 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0657 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W MCMINNVILLE 45.21N 123.23W
01/12/2021 M1.42 INCH YAMHILL OR PUBLIC
RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
737 AM PST TUE JAN 12 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0734 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NW SUMMIT 44.64N 123.58W
01/12/2021 M1.31 INCH BENTON OR TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL SINCE 9PM ON THE 11TH.
0657 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W MCMINNVILLE 45.21N 123.23W
01/12/2021 M1.42 INCH YAMHILL OR PUBLIC
RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
943 AM PST TUE JAN 12 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0930 AM HEAVY RAIN RYDERWOOD 46.37N 123.05W
01/12/2021 M2.55 INCH COWLITZ WA PUBLIC
2.55 INCHES IN LAST 12 HOURS WITH 3.75
INCHES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
0840 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 ESE WELCHES 45.33N 121.95W
01/12/2021 M2.00 INCH CLACKAMAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER
0809 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NE LAKE OSWEGO 45.42N 122.69W
01/12/2021 M1.25 INCH CLACKAMAS OR TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL SINCE 7PM ON THE 11TH.
0734 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 NW SUMMIT 44.64N 123.58W
01/12/2021 M1.31 INCH BENTON OR TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL SINCE 9PM ON THE 11TH.
0657 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W MCMINNVILLE 45.21N 123.23W
01/12/2021 M1.42 INCH YAMHILL OR TRAINED SPOTTER
RAINFALL SINCE MIDNIGHT.
&&The Portland,OR radar (KRTX), 86 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:45 UTC.
2 flood, 2 thunderstorm wind, 1 coastal flood, 1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Toke Point, WA tide gage reported at peak water level of 12.81 feet at 1142PST. This compares to a predicted tide of 10.84 feet. The Willapa River near Willapa was approaching flood stage during this time. The calculated surge height is of 1.97 feet by subtracting the astronomical tide height from total water level.
The Grays River near Rosburg rose above 1145PST on the 12th, crested at 15.54 feet, then fell below flood stage at 0215PST on the 14th. Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
Three Corner Rock RAWS (TRKW1) reported a maximum wind of 50 mph gusting to 81 mph.
Abernathy RAWS (ABNW1) reported a maximum wind of 36 mph gusting to 78 mph.
A 12 inch diameter douglas fir uprooted and leaning on a powerline near NE 162nd Ave. and NE 43rd St. in Vancouver.
The Cowlitz River at Kelso rose above flood stage at 1315PST on the 13th, crested at 22.2 feet, then fell below flood stage 0100PST on the 14th. Flood stage is 21.5 feet.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 938517, 938524, 940020, 940021, 938504, 938530.