Drought in Texas, January 12 to 31, 2021

Name: Drought in Texas, January 12 to 31, 2021
Start: 2021-01-12T00:00
End: 2021-01-31T23:59
Location: Texas

January 12 to 31, 2021 · NWS BRO · 4 events in 4 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.

Despite multiple cold fronts moving through the area, the lack of precipitation allowed for drought conditions to worsen across portions of Deep South Texas. Extreme (D3) marched eastward into western Jim Hogg, and nudged a bit eastward in Starr, with a slight nudge east of Severe (D2) in most of the remainder of Starr and Jim Hogg. Another area of D3 developed in portions of southwestern Kenedy, southeastern Brooks, and northeastern Northern Hidalgo Counties. The area of D2 conditions that was in place across eastern portions of Deep South Texas also shifted very slightly westward, likely owing to shower activity on January 10th helping improve drought conditions closer to the coast.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 11, 11:35 PM CST, 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 11, 11:35 PM CST, 25 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1135 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at all aerodromes overnight
with BRO possibly seeing periods of brief MVFR ceilings. Light
northwesterly winds will continue through the TAF period. Monday
afternoon low clouds will filter into BRO and HRL with MVFR ceilings
expected through the remainder of the period with MFE remaining
under VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 520 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for
MFE and HRL. While VFR conditions are currently being seen at BRO,
periods of MVFR ceilings are expected for a few hours late this
evening and once again by midday Tuesday. Northerly winds will
remain light overnight becoming more moderate Monday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021/

SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): Mid level trough
continues to deepen across northern and western Texas as another
500mb shortwave swings from northern Mexico into South Texas
Tuesday night. Drier southwesterly flow aloft continues through
the short term, locking low level moisture in place, and keeping a
rather persistent cloud cover, mainly across the mid to lower RGV
and lower Texas coast. A weak coastal trough tries to develop
into Tuesday night and may help develop a couple of showers into
southeastern Cameron County, otherwise, mainly stay offshore.
Northerly flow diminishes, but continues through Tuesday night,
keeping temperatures well below normal. Lows tonight approach
freezing across the ranchlands and upper 30s to near 40 for the
RGV. Lows Tuesday night may dip a degree or two further,
especially with clearing skies across the ranchlands and upper
valley. Wind chill values may drop again to near freezing for the
RGV and into the upper 20s for the ranchlands, but winds should
stay generally below 10 mph. Highs today will likely struggle to
get into the low 50s. Highs on Tuesday could reach into the mid
50s thanks to diminishing CAA and maybe a few more peeks of
sunshine between the clouds.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): A cool start on Wednesday
morning will be followed by dry and increasingly more seasonal
conditions Wednesday through Thursday. High temps on Wednesday
will be in the 60s, followed by lows Wednesday night in the 40s,
and highs Thursday in the 70s. This will occur as the cooler air
mass modifies and shifts east, being replaced by return flow.

While ridging develops over the West Coast and a mid level low
deepens over the upper Midwest, a weak front will move through the
CWA on Friday morning. Pesky coastal showers, more or less
hanging over the Gulf most of the period thus far, will initially
expand in coverage, possibly touching coastal land areas before
being whisked offshore. Stabilizing northwest flow aloft will move
in on Friday along with the associated surface high pressure
behind the front. Friday high temperatures will take a slight hit
and will remain mostly in the 60s to near 70 degrees for the day.

Clear skies and light winds Friday night will allow low temps to
dip into the 30s and 40s, staying above freezing for now. The
brief reversal in the warming trend of the previous couple of days
will not last long. Temps will recover into the lower 70s on
Saturday and into the 40s and 50s Saturday night. Return flow will
be afoot Saturday night as high pressure shifts to the east and
as coastal showers redevelop.

A shallow short wave trough will quickly traverse North Texas on
Sunday, with another front spilling south along the southern High
Plains. The front will arrive at the coast Sunday night with a
modest shift to north winds and a few more coastal showers
developing along a coastal trough. Temperatures on Monday will
decrement slightly behind the front.

MARINE:
Now through Tuesday Night: As high pressure builds, marine
conditions will improve through Tuesday night. Northerly flow
gradually diminishes through this afternoon, with choppy
conditions on the bay becoming a moderate chop by this evening.
SCAs are in effect for Gulf of Mexico waters through this
afternoon, and may need to be extended into this evening, mainly
across offshore Gulf waters. Small craft should exercise caution
across bay waters into this evening, and across Gulf waters
tonight into Tuesday morning, especially offshore.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...Moderate north winds will
shift to east Wednesday night and then to south on Thursday as
high pressure scoots east across the northern Gulf. Winds and seas
will increase to moderate Thursday night into Friday, with a
front shifting winds to north as early as Friday morning. Small
craft will need to exercise caution on the Gulf Friday and Friday
night in the wake of the front. Winds will shift to east and then
southeast Saturday and Saturday night as high pressure shifts
east, increasing in strength Saturday night to require small craft
should exercise caution conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  42  55  42  62 /   0  10  10   0
BROWNSVILLE          42  55  42  63 /   0  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            39  54  39  63 /   0  10  10  10
MCALLEN              39  54  39  64 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      36  56  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   48  55  50  58 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

68-McGinnis/Aviation

Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 11, 9:30 PM CST, 2 hours 30 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
930 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021

TXZ248>257-351-353-121015-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
930 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

Some isolated portions of the Northern Ranchlands may briefly reach
the freezing mark late tonight.

There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the beaches of South
Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the local beaches
Tuesday and again Friday and Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-121015-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
930 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Inland Kenedy County

When: January 12, 12:00 AM CST to January 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Inland Kenedy County forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.928, -97.636 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Due to a lack of precipitation across the area, Extreme (D3) Drought conditions developed in southwestern portions of Inland Kenedy County. Severe (D2) Drought conditions also expanded slightly northward across northwestern portions of Inland Kenedy. The Extreme conditions would expand slightly toward the end of the month, covering more of the King Ranch and other ranches in western Kenedy.

Severe (D2) Drought conditions improved slightly across central portions of Inland Kenedy County as a result of shower activity closer to the coast from a few days earlier.

Drought, Northern Hidalgo County

When: January 12, 12:00 AM CST to January 18, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Northern Hidalgo County forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 26.397, -98.181 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Due to a lack of rainfall across the area, Extreme (D3) Drought conditions developed across northeastern portions of Northern Hidalgo County.

Drought, Brooks

When: January 12, 12:00 AM CST to January 18, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Brooks forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 27.032, -98.219 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Due to a lack of rainfall across the area, drought conditions worsened in Brooks County. Extreme (D3) Drought conditions developed in far southeastern Brooks County. Severe (D2) Drought conditions also expanded across eastern portions of Brooks County.

Drought, Jim Hogg

When: January 12, 12:00 AM CST to January 18, 11:59 PM CST
Where: Jim Hogg forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor
Coordinates: 27.043, -98.697 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Due to a lack of rainfall across the area, drought conditions worsened in Jim Hogg County. Extreme (D3) Drought conditions developed across the western third of Jim Hogg County. Severe (D2) Drought conditions also expanded across central and eastern Jim Hogg County.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Texas in 2021 Every state in 2021 This day in weather history Warnings in Texas, January 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 930750, 930751, 930752, 930753.