After a couple of months of below normal rainfall, Dimmit County went into Severe Drought (D2).
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
After a couple of months of below normal rainfall, Dimmit County went into Severe Drought (D2).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 26, 5:41 AM CST, 4 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 641 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ The rapid influx of gulf moisture at low levels and a plume of Pacific moisture passing overhead at mid levels is making for some erratic trends of TAF forecasts for IFR versus MVFR cigs. This should continue for a few hours, and then late this morning there should be a continued increase in low level winds to help with mixing in the boundary layer to hopefully lift cigs closer to VFR toward noon. A few MVFR spots are still possible in the early afternoon, but by around 19Z most of the area should be mixing toward VFR with further increases in wind speeds. A weak disturbance moving out of Mexico could bring a few sprinkles, but no impacts to area terminals are projected at this time. Late tonight a likely prevailing storm or squall line event should reach I-35 by around 10Z and probably will skip east of DRT earlier in the night. A cold front will come with this system and gusty winds/fair weather will finish out the final hours of the 30 hour forecasts. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021/ SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)... Active weather will make for a busy short-term discussion. Early this AM, we will see some light winds and pre-dawn fog pockets where some areas could see brief visibility lowerings to less than 1/2 mile. An umbrella of high clouds is spilling north out of Mexico, and farther south, some mid-level precipitation echoes can be seen marching north. This mountainous region of instability is difficult to project, and is often analyzed poorly by model data. Rich surface to 850 mb dewpoints noted in the 00Z obs at Monterrey will have us taking a second look at these trends for a possible expansion of low chance PoPs for the daytime period. The upper ridge over Texas early this morning should quickly break down and draw increasing morning onshore winds and moisture into South Central Texas in the first period. For this reason have left out any mention of late morning fog, but we may take another look at this trend toward daybreak should the winds remain light. Model depictions of the skies should be in good shape with a progressive movement of a mostly cloudy skies lifting NE and leaving partly cloudy skies in the late afternoon/early evening and briefly ahead of the strong trough about to dive into West TX tonight. Beneath the mid-level canopy of clouds moving across, there should be a nice low level inversion that could be slow to erode if the NAM is correct. With strong surface winds of 15 to 25 mph beginning to develop by afternoon, the current thinking is the low clouds will disperse a bit closer to the GFS projection and give us some intermittent breaks in the midday cloudiness. Thus will keep with the blended guidance on daytime temps, which should be mostly 2-4 degrees less than those of Monday. After this nebulous mass of H8-H5 moisture and dynamics pull northeast across South Central Texas today, the late afternoon and early evening shows a clearer picture as much of the area will enjoy a mostly fair sky and a stiff S/SE breeze feeding into the approaching storm complex. Model trends have shown a slightly slower arrival of the conveyor belt of storms expected to expand south into our forecast area from West Central TX. Through 06Z, most solutions keep the threat for strong storms NW of a line from Del Rio to Llano. This hopefully allows for the severe potential to decrease as the overnight squall line to evolve should weaken upon its arrival into the I-35 corridor counties. Still some large hail and damaging winds, as well as a non-zero tornado threat must be considered. The Day 1 SPC Severe Wx Outlook keeps the Slight Risk area identical from the old Day 2, but the area of Marginal Risk becomes expanded to help bridge the gap with the new Day 2 Outlook which more uniformly covers the forecast area with at least a Marginal Severe Risk or greater. The more populated areas of the I- 35 corridor will likely experience this risk with fairly quick moving squall line between 10Z and 15Z Wednesday. After 15Z, the risk picks up again for the midday hours generally along the Highway 77 Corridor. Most of the threats for supercells with highest CAPE and helicity values should fall with the Slight Risk areas respectively for periods 2 (tonight) and 3 (Weds). With a fairly quick moving system, that should slow down only slightly in the daytime Wednesday, there are few concerns about run-off issues as the higher squall line totals should be mainly 0.5 to 1.5 inches. This brings up the next topic of the dry and windy air to fall in behind the arrival of the cold front. A Fire Weather Watch has already been posted for western counties from 10 AM to 7 PM for areas generally west of a line from Rocksprings to Pearsall. Breezy and dry weather conditions could hit critical levels slightly east of this area, but recent rainfall amounts and the expectation of high rain chances keep us with the same hazard area for now. Looking at the latest MAV/MET guidance, the current thinking on the expected wind speeds would have us just outside of a need for a Wind Advisory, but some localized areas could see some gusts over 40 mph. LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)... The majority of the long-term forecast should be dry behind the system that moved through in the short-term. Highs on Thursday behind the front should top out in the middle 70 to middle 80s across the area. Dewpoint values in the 30-50 degree range will lead to afternoon humidity values ranging from below 20 percent out west to near 40 percent in the east. Northerly winds will range from 15-20 mph out west with the lower humidity to 20-25 mph in the east with the higher humidity. This will likely lead to elevated fire weather conditions across much of the area depending on how much rain falls in the short-term. The rest of the forecast through Monday looks uneventful. Highs should be 70s and 80s on Friday warming back into the 80s for all areas on Sunday and Monday. Lows will be in the 40s and 50s through Sunday with a slightly warm up into the 50s and 60s on Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 86 66 78 55 76 / 10 90 40 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 87 66 78 52 77 / 10 90 40 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 66 81 52 79 / 10 80 40 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 85 61 75 51 74 / - 90 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 68 83 54 83 / 10 20 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 85 64 76 52 74 / 10 100 30 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 89 64 82 49 81 / 10 70 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 87 66 79 52 77 / 10 80 40 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 69 81 55 78 / 20 60 90 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 67 79 55 78 / 10 80 30 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 89 69 83 55 81 / 10 80 30 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for Dimmit-Edwards-Frio-Kinney-Maverick-Uvalde-Val Verde-Zavala. && Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks Long-Term...Hampshire
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 446 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-271000- Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera- Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde- Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala- Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit- 446 AM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas.. .DAY ONE...Today And Tonight. An upper level disturbance and cold front will bring strong to severe thunderstorms late tonight into Wednesday morning. There is a Marginal to Slight Risk of strong to severe storms, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. The Marginal to Slight Risk of strong to severe storms continues from sunrise to around noon Wednesday, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. There is also an isolated threat for a tornado or two, mainly east of the I-35 corridor from sunrise to noon Wednesday. A strong cold front moving through in the wake of the storm complex Wednesday will bring northwest winds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Along with the strong winds, low relative humidities will drop to between 15 and 20 percent, resulting in Critical fire weather conditions for areas along and west of a line from Rocksprings to Pearsall. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for these areas from 10 AM to 7 PM Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to local law enforcement or the National Weather Service.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
After a couple of months of below normal rainfall, Dimmit County went into Severe Drought (D2). There were voluntary water restrictions across the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 988297.