Flooding in New York, October 26 to 28, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
300 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will bring periods of rain through
tonight. Rain could be heavy enough for flash flooding in
northeast PA and the south central NY. Stream and river flooding
is also possible. Dry and seasonably mild weather returns
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
1230 pm update...
Minor update to increase rainfall amounts, clouds , and chance
of rain. Rain and clouds over the entire area with embedded
heavy rain. Flooding and flash flooding ongoing in the
southeast.

412 am update...
Main challenge in the near term is centered around the complex
low pressure system developing off the coast and the resulting
rain, which could prove heavy at times and potentially lead to
pockets of flash flooding through today.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of central
NY and all of northeast PA through this evening.

Current synoptic set up is very chaotic with the parent 500 mb
upper low over the nrn Great Lakes and a short wave extending
south into the mid Atlantic region...and a surface low which has
nearly completed a transfer to the coast of NJ and in the
beginning stages of phasing with a quasi-tropical low a couple
hundred miles off the coast. The low near NJ has started to draw
up a maritime air mass into itself and is starting to deposit
heavy rain in and around the NYC area. There is a weak amount of
instability present as well, which will aid in focusing the
deep convection over parts of nrn NJ, NYC and into CT. The
position of this heavy rain/deep convection could likely play an
important role in robbing areas of central NY and ne PA of both
moisture and instability through at least the mid morning
hours today...limiting the intensity of the rainfall during
this time.

So, for the rest of the morning hours, will likely continue to
see steady rain being ushered into the region along and east of
I-81 with rainfall rates around a tenth to a quarter inch per
hour. Farther to the west weak scattered convective rain showers
will continue to bubble up around the Finger Lakes with rates
around a tenth of an inch per hour.

Locations of the Poconos and into the Catskills have seen
around a half to 1 inch of rain so far since last evening. While
lesser amounts can be found farther west, except for a few
embedded heavier showers in the Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley
that have produced several isolated one third to half inch
amounts.

Once the two surface lows merge off the coast later this
morning the low level dynamic field will pick up strength and
throw moisture and needed forcing back to the northwest along
the baroclinic zone in NY, which should act to enhance rainfall
rates initially over the watch area which could prove impactful
to areas that are already saturated, and then farther to the
west in the afternoon over areas that are not as wet and
potentially more able to handle the rain. The highest risk
timeframe will likely be around 10 am or so until about 3
pm...earlier over ne PA and s-central NY, and later across the
Finger Lakes. A broad area of 1-2 inches is expected in a
relatively short period of time which could cause some flooding
issues, especially in flood prone areas. Some headwater
locations and smaller streams and creeks which could rise
quickly and cause minor flooding issues.

The area of heavy rain this afternoon will continue shifting to
the west/sw into the early evening, but quickly get cutoff from
the moisture source and dissipate rapidly. Lingering light rain
showers are likely into the early overnight hours but most of
the rain will be gone by sunrise Wednesday. A slow improvement
in conditions will be felt on Wed with winds remaining steady
out of the n/nw around 5 to 15 mph, and clouds taking a good
portion of the day to scatter out. Temperatures will remain on
the mild side with highs topping out in the upper 50s to near
60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM Update:

A trough digging into the central US will result in mid and upper
level ridging across NY and PA on Thursday. Dry air aloft will keep
the region partly cloudy with temperatures getting back to
seasonably warm. Increasing southerly flow Thursday night into
Friday increases the cloud cover along with precipitation moving
back in late Friday as a warm front lifts into the region. Most
models have the warm front progressive with a several hour period
with preliminary QPF of 0.5 to 1 inch. With recent rainfall
localized flash flooding is a concern once again Friday afternoon
into Friday night. As the trough moves into the northeast Friday
night, a surface low moves in keeping clouds and rain showers going
into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
300 PM Update:

The upper level trough slowly propagates through the northeast
this weekend with unsettled and cooler weather. NW flow early
next week with cool 850 mb temps results in chances of lake
effect rain showers along and north of I 90 early next week.
Still little to no chance of any overnight freezes in the long
term.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
145 pm update...

Steady moderate rain over most of the area with restrictions,
continues into the evening. Slow improvement Wednesday.

All sites wavering between IFR and fuel alternate MVFR due to
ceilings and visibilities. As the rain tapers off this evening
visibilities improve to MVFR then VFR late tonight. Cigs stay
down through 12z then improve to VFR SYR/RME and MVFR rest by
16z.

Northwest to north winds at 10 kts with some higher gusts.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday through Sunday...Restrictions likely with rain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BJT/TAC
NEAR TERM...BJT/TAC
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...TAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
355 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

NYZ045-046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-272000-
Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford-Susquehanna-
Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-Southern Wayne-
355 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

More rain will fall Friday to Saturday possibly causing more flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-272000-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben-
Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-
355 PM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Rain will continue into tonight before ending. Flash flooding and
river flooding are possible. You should monitor later forecasts and
be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

More rain will fall Friday to Saturday possibly causing more flash
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. Please relay
any information about severe weather to the NWS while following
local, state and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
340 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SANFORD                 42.10N 75.48W
10/26/2021                   BROOME             NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            OQUAGA CREEK HAS GONE OUT IF ITS BANKS.

&&

AJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
344 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     FLOOD            1 ENE ARKVILLE          42.15N 74.60W
10/26/2021                   DELAWARE           NY   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FLOODING ON NY 28 EASTBOUND ELLIOTT HILLS RD
            (MIDDLETOWN) TO BRIDGE STREET; NY 30 (ANDES)
            1 RIGHT LANE OF 2 LANES BLOCKED BETWEEN
            CHURCH ST. AND ELLIOTT HILLS RD.

&&

DEAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
350 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MASONVILLE              42.24N 75.37W
10/26/2021  M1.89 INCH       DELAWARE           NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.5 INCHES OF RAIN BEFORE 7AM THEN 1.39
            SINCE 7 AM.

&&

AJG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
401 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSE MARCELLUS         42.98N 76.34W
10/26/2021                   ONONDAGA           NY   STORM CHASER

            VIDEO SENT IN VIA TWITTER OF WATER OUT OF
            ITS BANKS IN MARCELLUS PARK.

&&

AJG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
438 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MECKLENBURG             42.47N 76.70W
10/26/2021  M2.28 INCH       SCHUYLER           NY   COCORAHS

&&