NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 26, 9:07 AM EST, 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 26, 9:07 AM EST, 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1007 AM EDT Tue Oct 26 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain, heavy at times, will continue through the day
today and into tonight night as a strengthening coastal storm
tracks near Cape Cod today and tonight. Some flooding is
possible in the Catskills and southern New England where the
heaviest rainfall totals are expected. Rain tapers to showers
Tuesday night into Wednesday as the low pulls away from the
region. Drier weather is expected Thursday, although another
storm system will bring a chance for more rain for Friday into
the first half of next weekend. Temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday will be a few degrees below normal, with near normal
temperatures expected for the end of the week and next weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Flood Watches remain in effect:
Midnight tonight through Noon Wednesday:
western Greene, western Ulster, Schoharie, Montgomery and
western Schenectady Counties.
2 AM Tuesday through 8 PM Wednesday: Litchfield County
.UPDATE...Steady moderate rain (brief pockets of heavy rain)
continuing for areas from mainly the Hudson Valley westward late
this morning. There has been a bit of a lull from the Taconics
eastward into western New England, where the rain intensity is
mainly lighter and coverage less widespread. Radar indicating a
surge of moderate/heavy rainfall moving into Litchfield County
from the south/east as of 10 AM. No changes to the Flood Watch
areas at this time, as rainfall amounts and locations have been
close to what was forecast to this time. Observations indicate
around 1.25 to 2.50" from around Albany southward. The greatest
amounts have been across the eastern Catskills and mid Hudson
Valley.
Max 1-hr rainfall rates have been generally 0.25 to 0.35" per
hour, with 3-hr amounts less than an inch. Also, the rain has
been falling for about 9-12 hours. So any hydro concerns look
to be more areal and/or river flooding at this point going
forward. Rivers have started rising, and will continue to
monitor trends through the day especially in the Flood Watch
areas.
.PREVIOUS[0702]...Widespread moderate rain is continuing across
the region,with some embedded pockets of heavier rain moving
through as well. SPC mesoanalysis shows 850 mb easterly LLJ
beginning to strengthen over southern New England, with the nose
pointed right at our region, where convergence/frontogenesis at
the nose of the LLJ is leading to enhanced rainfall. Over the
past 12 hours, between 1.5-1.75" of rain has already fallen
across portions of the eastern Catskills, Mid Hudson Valley, and
Litchfield County. Further north and west, rainfall amounts
range from around 0.25" in the Adirondacks to around 0.8" in the
Capital District per latest NYS mesonet obs. With precipitation
rates still generally 0.33" per hour or less, have not had any
flooding issues yet this morning. However, creeks, streams, and
rivers are beginning to rise, and with periods of steady
rainfall predicted through the day and into tonight, some
ponding of water is possibly in urban, poor drainage, and low-
lying areas. Also cannot rule out isolated flash flooding if
heavier bands of rain sit over the same area for a prolonged
period of time. Most likely location for this to play out would
be in the Eastern Catskills and/or Litchfield County, where a
flood watch remains in effect until tomorrow.
Overall, did not make any major changes to the
forecast with this update. Mainly just some minor updates to
better reflect current obs. GOES 16 water vapor imagery shows
the phasing between upper level features beginning, with surface
analysis showing a double-barrel low off the east coast.
Previous forecast discussion below for intensifying surface
cyclone and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall through the
day remains on track...
.Previous [3:45 AM EDT]...Rain has overspread the entire region
and is expected to fall moderate to heavy at times over the
next several hours. Over the past 6 hours, areas south of I-90
have seen at least 0.25" of rain, with higher totals of 0.5-1"
across the Catskills, Taconics, Berkshires, and in Litchfield
County. Rainfall rates over the past couple of hours have
generally been around 0.25" per hour or less, so flooding issues
are not anticipated over at least the next few hours. However,
as rain continues through the day, the threat for flooding will
increase, hence the flood watch that is currently in effect for
Litchfield, western Greene, western Ulster, Schoharie,
Montgomery and western Schenectady Counties.
This rain has developed in response to a complex low pressure
system developing off the US East Coast. GOES 16 water vapor
imagery shows the 3 upper-level features that will come
together over the next several hours to produce a rapidly
deepening coastal low. There is a southern stream shortwave off
the East Coast, another shortwave currently over Virginia and
North Carolina, and a remnant upper low over Michigan. What was
initially the primary surface low weakened earlier tonight over
Pennsylvania, and the new coastal low has developed in response
to the southern stream disturbance off the Coast of the
Carolinas and has already intensified to 995 mb. With this
classic Miller Type B storm track, this coastal low is expected
to continue to intensify as it moves northeastward during the
day today.
As we head through the day today, a double-barrel low is
expected to move up the east coast. The three aforementioned
pieces are expected to phase later today, forming a consolidated
upper low off the East Coast. With strongly divergent flow
aloft, the surface cyclone will continue to deepen to sub 980
mb by 00z this evening as it passes to the east of the 40/70
benchmark. With the deepening low off the coast and a surface
high over Hudson Bay in Canada, there will be a tightening
pressure gradient through the day today. While it will become
breezy later today, the strongest winds will not be able to mix
down in the valleys thanks to a low-level thermal inversion.
However, some gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible in the higher
terrain of our New England zones as well as in the Catskills and
Taconics.
Strong cyclonic flow around the surface cyclone will also lead
to an anomalously strong easterly low-level jet (LLJ). The LLJ
is expected to get begin to strengthen this morning, and will
continue to intensify to 60+ kts by this evening, which
approaches 5 standard deviations from normal per the latest
NAEFS ensemble. This strong easterly LLJ will help advect
anomalously high PWATs of 1-1.25" into the region, which
combined with strong forcing for ascent will lead to periods of
heavy rainfall through the day today. HREF guidance and CAMs
have been hinting at quite a bit of upslope enhancement in
rainfall totals for east facing slopes of the southern Greens,
Taconics, Berkshires, and Catskills, while a downslope/shadow
effect is expected on the west facing slopes and in the valleys.
Additional enhancement of rainfall is expected near the nose of
the LLJ where there will be increased low/mid-level convergence
and frontogenesis, which will provide additional forcing for
ascent. The best chance for this enhancement in our area appears
to be across southwestern areas, including the Catskills.
Therefore, the highest rainfall totals through this evening may
actually occurr in the Catskills, as the HREF has been
suggesting with the past couple runs. Northeasterly flow today
and cloudy, rainy conditions will hold high temperatures only
in the upper 40s to mid 50s for most areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday evening and Tuesday night, the closed upper-low will
move offshore and begin to intensify as it does so. At the same
time, the surface cyclone will continue to intensify this
evening, with guidance suggesting that the low will deepen to
around 975 mb this evening. As this happens, the low center is
also expected to make a loop north and west back towards the
coast. There is still some uncertainty as to how far west this
loop will take the storm. A brief lull in precipitation is
possible early this evening as the heavier bands of
precipitation associated with a band of mid-level frontogenesis
pivot southwestward away from our area on the back side of the
low. However, some areas may see a second round of rain with the
loop northwestwards. The best chance at a second round of heavy
rain with this loop is for our New England zones, although
continued easterly upslope enhancement in the Catskills may lead
to continued periods of moderate to heavy rain there as well
this evening into tonight.
After midnight, the low is expected to occlude and become
vertically stacked, which will stop the intensifying trend, and
the low may begin to fill in my Wednesday morning. As the low
begins to weaken and pull away from our region early Wednesday
morning, rain will taper from showers for northwestern areas and
may end for the Adirondacks by 12z. Further east, showers will
likely linger through much of Wednesday morning, although
precipitation amounts should be relatively light. When all is
said and done, storm total precipitation is expected to range
from 3-5" in the Catskills, Taconics, Litchfield County, and the
southern Berkshires (bulls eye for our CWA will likely be the
Catskills). The lowest amounts of 0.5-1" will be in the
Adirondacks and in Washington, Rensselaer, and western
Bennington counties where there will be downsloping off the
Berkshires and southern Greens. For the rest of the region, a
general 1-3" of rain is expected from this storm.
Wednesday evening through Thursday night...The storm continues
to pull away from the region Wednesday evening, with a drying
trend expected for our entire region as heights rise aloft and a
wedge of high pressure builds in from the northwest. This wedge
of high pressure is expected to remain over the region through
Thursday night, with a ridge axis overhead Thursday and moving
to our east Thursday night. Skies Wednesday night and Thursday
will become partly to mostly clear, which will allow for
efficient radiational cooling Wednesday night. Thursday night
will remain dry, but increasing clouds from the west/southwest
are expected in advance of our next weather system. More details
on this system in the long term discussion. Highs Wednesday and
Thursday will be mainly in the 50. Lows Wednesday night will be
in the 30s for most areas. Lows Thursday night will be a few
degrees warmer than Wednesday night, with mid 30s to low 40s
across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Friday should be mainly dry during the morning with increasing
clouds and chances for rain in the afternoon as warm advection and
moisture advection increase ahead of the upper closed low in the TN
Valley. The best coverage of rain Friday afternoon should be south
of I-90 with rain likely but solid chances for rain should be over
the entire area. Highs Friday in the 50s with around 50 higher
terrain.
The closed upper low slowly weakens as it tracks northeast and
eventually across our region Saturday through Sunday. Rain is likely
across the region but there should be at least some breaks in the
rain at times, especially if there is a dry slot between the warm
advection/isentropic lift rain and the upper dynamics/upper
deformation rains. The upper system should exit through the day
Sunday, with a slow and gradual decrease in coverage of the rain,
becoming just scattered showers. We will have to monitor trends as
there could be locally heavy rain Friday night through Saturday once
again in this somewhat persistent wet upper pattern.
Highs Saturday and Sunday in the mid 50s to around 60 and around 50
higher terrain. By Monday, a drying trend with clouds and sun and
some isolated showers possible off the lakes into the southern
Adirondacks. Highs Monday in the mid 50s to around 60 and around 50
higher terrain.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rain is spreading north and will affect all the TAF sites through
this evening. There are some embedded pockets of heavy rain but
there are also holes in the areas of rain. So, there will be
intervals of rain, with brief bursts of moderate to heavy rain, and
some brief periods of just very light rain or drizzle.
Ceilings and visibilities will be mainly MVFR with IFR/LIFR
conditions during the heaviest rain and maybe even a few momentary
brief periods of VFR conditions during the potential brief breaks in
the rain. The heaviest rain should be this morning but we need to
watch for redevelopment of rain in the afternoon, which could also
have periods of heavy rain, especially at KPOU and KPSF. So,
indicating MVFR/IFR conditions through this evening since the low
pressure producing the rain will still be developing and in the
process of moving offshore.
North to northeasterly winds will remain in place through today and
this evening with sustained winds increasing late this morning and
afternoon. Wind gusts increase to 15 to 25 Kt this afternoon and
evening. LLWS expected at PSF and POU as east winds at 2000 feet
increase to 40 to 45 kt toward daybreak and through midday. While
LLWS at POU is primarily expected from 09 UTC to 15 UTC, LLWS at PSF
may be delayed until around 14Z but continue into the afternoon.
There could be some LLWS at KALB in the afternoon as well. Once
surface winds become gusty later in the afternoon and evening as low
pressure strengthens, the LLWS should end. Even though east winds
at 2000 feet will still be relatively strong, the gusting surface
winds will minimize the LLWS potential.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns this week. Rain has overspread the
region this morning, and periods of rain, some moderate to heavy
at times, will continue through the day today and into tonight.
The greatest rainfall is expected across the Catskills and the
higher terrain of southwest New England. Some flooding will be
possible in these areas. Cool, rainy and breezy conditions will
persist through Tuesday night as the storm only slowly tracks
southeast away from the region. Drying will finally occur by
Wednesday, as the storm pulls farther away, but another system
Friday may bring another chance for rain.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Flood Watches remain in effect:
Midnight tonight through Noon Wednesday:
western Greene, western Ulster, Schoharie, Montgomery and
western Schenectady Counties.
2 AM Tuesday through 8 PM Wednesday: Litchfield County
After a period of moderate rainfall that lasted into this
morning, another stronger storm system near the coast will bring
widespread moderate to heavy rainfall tonight into early
Wednesday. While there is still some uncertainty in how far
north and west the axis of heaviest rainfall will extend, total
rainfall amounts during this upcoming event expected to mainly
range from 1 to 4 inches. The greatest amounts look to be for
east facing slopes of the Berkshires, southern Greens, Taconics,
with local 5+ inches possible in parts of the Catskills. Latest
MMEFS river forecasts indicate some points exceeding or getting
very close minor flood stage including the Catskill and
Schoharie basins, as well as some points on the Housatonic.
Therefore, the Flood Watch was expanded to include western
Ulster, western Greene, Schoharie, western Schenectady and
Montgomery counties. It is not out of the question that a few
spots could reach moderate flood stage if QPF on the higher end
of the solution envelope is realized. Some areal or flash
flooding cannot be ruled out as well, especially for areas south
of Albany with heavier bands of rain.
After a brief period of dry weather Wednesday through Thursday,
another system may bring periods of rain Friday into next
weekend. Depending on coverage and amount of rainfall,
additional hydro concerns are possible as rivers and streams
will be running high from the rainfall today.
For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NYZ040-047-048-058-
063.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Main/JPV
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...Main/JPV
HYDROLOGY...Main/JPV