Severe drought conditions across North Texas spread west into Jack County during the first half of the month.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Severe drought conditions across North Texas spread west into Jack County during the first half of the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 8, 11:37 PM CST, 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1137 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tuesday Night/ A strong 40-50kt LLJ will bring stratus northward through much of the CWA by, or shortly after sunrise. Moisture within the 925-850mb layer should be deep enough to keep low level stratocumulus around a good part of the day, though I can't rule out a few brief hours mid-late afternoon of some partial sunshine. Spurts of denser mid-high clouds will also be present within the fast zonal flow aloft, as periodic, fast-moving impulses lift east across the Central/Southern Plains. Look for the cloudiness to keep temperatures in check somewhat with high temps continuing 5-7 degrees above seasonal normals that are usually in the mid 60s. A strong southerly pressure gradient and partial mixing of the strong 925mb winds will result in south winds 15 to 25 mph with a few gusts in excess of 30 mph by midday. Partly-mostly cloudy and breezy conditions continue tonight, as a another south-southwest 45kt+ LLJ develops by mid evening over the Southern Plains. Another stratus surge just after midnight will result in cloudy conditions through daybreak Wednesday. The mostly cloudy and breezy conditions will work in conjunction with surface dew point temperatures s rising into the 50s for a little warmer and more humid night Tuesday night. Lows Wednesday morning will range from the mid 50s across East Texas to the upper 50s/lower 60s elsewhere. Though a sprinkle or two can't be ruled out late during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday morning. 05/ && .LONG TERM... /Issued 321 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021/ /Tuesday Night Onward/ Fairly quiet weather is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday before rain/storm chances increase the latter half of the week. We'll continue to monitor the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms this weekend as a strong upper level system approaches from the northwest. Tuesday Night through Thursday... North and Central Texas will be wedged between an area of high pressure across the southeastern US and a trough digging from the Pacific Northwest. Although a compact leading shortwave will move through the state on Wednesday, the atmosphere will remain sufficiently capped to prevent the development of showers or storms on Wednesday. The shortwave will help increase regional winds out out of the south/southwest, likely leading to widespread temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s Wednesday, and upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday. With the persistent southerly flow aiding in the transport of moisture into the region, there will likely be sufficient moisture to increase the potential for a few showers across East Texas Thursday afternoon. The threat for a rumble of thunder remains low, therefore, storms will not be advertised at the moment. Thursday Night Onward... A stalled front will be draped across Central Oklahoma and into the Texas Panhandle Thursday night as another weak shortwave moves from Texas into Oklahoma. Given the proximity of the front as a shortwave moves across, a mention of showers has been added across North Texas. With the front well north of our area, the potential for storms will likely remain across Oklahoma through the morning hours. As we go into the afternoon, warm air advection showers and even a few storms will overspread much of North Texas as the main forcing for ascent inches closer. Strong southwesterly winds will likely lead to a stout capping inversion around 700mb throughout much of the region. With the inversion in place, the threat for severe thunderstorms will remain low throughout much of North and Central Texas. The exception will be in the far northwestern portions of North Texas, where the front may enhance low-level convergence and lead to a few more robust thunderstorms. The development and deepening of a surface low is expected across the Texas Panhandle on Saturday. With the 700mb low remaining about 300 miles northwest of the surface low, the 700mb winds are likely to remain fairly strong out of the southwest. With a capping inversion in place throughout much of the morning and early afternoon, it's possible that storms don't develop until a Pacific cold front sweeps through the region later in the afternoon and evening. Lapse rates between 7.5-8 C/km and strong deep layer shear will likely be in place as the front moves through the area. Instability, however, remains a bit uncertain. The timing of the front will have large implications on just how much energy the atmosphere will have to work with. A later frontal passage, similar to what the ECMWF advertising, would lead to lower instability given the overnight timing. At this time, it is yet too early to pinpoint the exact threats of next week's incoming system. Make sure to come back in the coming days for more details as guidance hopefully comes to better agreement. Something that is certain is that this will not be the only severe weather threat this year. It's never too early to begin preparing for severe weather. It's much better to make a plan now and not need it, than to need a plan and not have one. Hernandez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06z TAFs/ Challenges: MVFR stratus, with possible brief IFR at Waco this morning. Return of MVFR stratus late tonight(after 06z Wed). VFR conditions with FEW-SCT Cu and BKN250 will continue through 09z-11z this Tuesday morning, as 40-50kt 925mb winds help draw stratus northward. All terminals should see low MVFR cigs by 12z-13z, before rapidly warming surface temps help raise cigs into high MVFR late this morning. Cigs will continue to lift into low VFR by 20z and continue VFR through the evening hours. 45-55kt southerly winds just above the surface by mid evening should help draw MVFR cigs back north a little faster tonight with arrival just after 06z Wednesday. A continued strong southerly surface pressure gradient and mixing should result in gusty south-southeast winds 15-20 knots with gusts 25-30 knots. The gusty winds will continue tonight as the surface temperatures remain mild and keep the surface-boundary layer semi-coupled with the strong LLJ noted previously. 05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 54 72 59 75 63 / 0 5 5 5 10 Waco 54 74 59 77 64 / 0 0 5 0 5 Paris 49 69 55 71 61 / 0 5 0 10 20 Denton 52 72 58 75 62 / 0 5 5 5 10 McKinney 52 70 58 74 63 / 0 5 0 5 10 Dallas 55 73 60 76 66 / 0 0 0 5 10 Terrell 52 71 57 74 63 / 0 5 0 5 5 Corsicana 53 73 58 76 64 / 0 5 0 0 5 Temple 53 74 58 77 63 / 0 5 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 53 74 58 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 351 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091215- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 351 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Thunderstorms will be possible starting Friday and continue through the weekend. There will be a threat of strong to severe storms, mainly on Saturday ahead of a passing cold front. Exact details remain uncertain at this time. Make sure to come back for additional details the next few days. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions affected eastern portions of the county through the end of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 950822.