Drought in Oklahoma, March 9 to 31, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1020 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 114 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

Tuesday is expected to be much like today with a strong pressure
gradient over Oklahoma driven by a deepening surface low in
Colorado and strong high pressure in the southeast u.s.
Additionally, another broad wave of cirrus is expected Tuesday.
The drier air over the western panhandles is expected to mix
farther east Tuesday just reaching the northwestern corner of
Oklahoma. However, the moisture gradient will be strong with
modestly higher moisture to the east, relative to that of today.
It will likely be a RFD-critera event for tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 146 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

The strong surface pressure gradient will remain in place on
Wednesday across Oklahoma and north Texas. Winds will be a bit
more southwesterly, as opposed to southerly, which should bring
drier air into the far western parts of Oklahoma. The dry air and
windy conditions will support rapid fire growth, and we are
including a Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday afternoon and early
evening with this update.

A cold front will arrive in northern Oklahoma early Thursday. As
the upper level low over the Southwest shifts east, it will tend
to slow the front, probably stalling it near I-40. The moist
southerly low-level flow will continue in advance of the upper-
level system...with rain and a few thunderstorms developing
Wednesday, and generally increasing in coverage through Friday.

Rain/thunderstorm chances will continue until the system moves
east of our forecast area by Monday afternoon.

Severe weather will be possible each day from Wednesday through
Sunday. Surface-based instability will be weak, but some higher
levels of elevated instability are expected, along with rather
strong vertical wind shear. In general, low-end severe hail will
be the most likely form of severe weather.

The amount of precipitable moisture will be very high for this
time of year. Medium-range models are in good agreement that our
entire forecast area should receive rainfall. Much of the
northeast half of our forecast area may receive heavy rainfall,
and flooding will be a possibility.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

Moderate-strong southerly winds will continue through the forecast
period. Will keep mention of TEMPO for MVFR stratus for a few
hours after sunrise, otherwise VFR expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  69  59  75 /   0   0   0  10
Hobart OK         51  73  57  82 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  53  74  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           49  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     53  70  59  76 /   0   0  10  20
Durant OK         51  69  57  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for OKZ004-005-009-010-014>016-021-022-033-034.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
725 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091100-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
725 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorm chances will return Wednesday night through Sunday.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night near
the Oklahoma Kansas border east of Cherokee. Hail up to the size
of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph may accompany the
strongest storms. Strong to severe thunderstorms will also be
possible Friday and Saturday across much of Oklahoma and portions
of western north Texas.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again Tuesday
afternoon in far northwest Oklahoma. Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions are expected Wednesday afternoon across
western Oklahoma.

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