An ongoing lack of significant rainfall events allowed for Exceptional (D4) Drought to develop across portions of Jim Hogg, Starr, and Zapata Counties in early-to-mid March. Conditions also worsened in Kenedy County which saw Extreme (D3) Drought push eastward toward the coast.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
An ongoing lack of significant rainfall events allowed for Exceptional (D4) Drought to develop across portions of Jim Hogg, Starr, and Zapata Counties in early-to-mid March. Conditions also worsened in Kenedy County which saw Extreme (D3) Drought push eastward toward the coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 8, 10:42 PM CST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1042 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...A few midlevel clouds continue to drift over the aerodromes this evening with VFR conditions expected to hold through the TAF period. Easterly to southeasterly winds have become relatively calm, but will pick up again later Tuesday morning. Another round of midlevel clouds and some midlevel ceilings will occur on Tuesday. Brief MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out this evening and Tuesday morning mainly near MFE, but confidence remains fairly low at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 514 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...Midlevel cloud decks continue across the local aerodromes this afternoon and will last through much of the TAF period. Winds will become a bit lighter overnight before increasing and becoming breezy by late Tuesday morning. Brief MVFR ceilings still cannot be ruled out overnight, with MFE being the most likely to see this occur. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 224 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): Mostly cloudy skies and light to moderate easterly winds prevail across deep south Texas early this afternoon. Brownsville radar currently indicates some light activity drifting northwest along the Rio Grande River. Mid- level ridging overhead will provide a dry west to northwest flow aloft through the period. At the surface, high pressure across the southeastern CONUS will maintain a light to moderate east to southeast winds tonight. Lows tonight should fall into the upper 50s to the lower 60s with a little less cloud cover. The persistent onshore flow will support warming temperatures and low-level moisture advection through the short term. The pressure gradient will strengthen on Tuesday as low pressure develops across the Rockies and moves into the Plains. Tuesday will be warm and breezy with highs in the upper 70s near the coast to the mid to upper 80s inland. At this time, winds are forecast to remain below Wind Advisory criteria for Tuesday afternoon. Lows Tuesday night will fall into the 60s under mostly cloudy skies. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday):Long term forecast philosophy remains in tact as 500mb ridge remains anchored over the Gulf of Mexico and a mid-upper level trough to settle over the Desert Southwest mid to late in the week before lifting northeast next Sunday and Monday. Forecast confidence for a warm and breezy week remains above average with latest models in good agreement through the weekend and in better agreement for next weekend. The evolution and Southeast movement of the mid/upper trough seems a little slower for 12Z model cycle. Latest model trends brings the trough axis into NW CA Wed, the Inter-mountain West Thu, and slowly into the Desert SW/4-corners Friday and Saturday. This may delay the onset of the strongest wind period for the CWA until Thu- Saturday. None the less, breezy to windy for the eastern half of the CWA during the daytime and breezy conditions for the Western half late afternoon and evening hours as a daily nocturnal low level jet averaging 30-45 kts at the 925-850mb level develops in response of the deepening trough. Southwest winds aloft will allow for 850mb winds to rise and subsidence from the mid-level ridge to edge temperatures higher each day. Guidance remains consistent and in good agreement advertising highs 4 to 8 degrees and lows 6 to 12 degrees above normal. Still no significant rainfall is expected through Saturday with limited deep layer moisture and a warm cap aloft. At this time the western trough shows signs of lifting northeast Sunday into Monday dragging a front through Texas. Latest GFS has slowed down its forward motion more in line with the slower ECMWF. Jury is still out on timing details but late next weekend looks in line along with the best chance of showers/thunderstorms along the front and back to a dry and slightly cooler regime next Monday. MARINE:(Now through Tuesday Night): Light to moderate east to southeast flow will continue along the lower Texas coast tonight. Moderate to strong southeasterly flow is expected to develop on Tuesday as the pressure gradient strengthens. Seas will steadily build across the western Gulf through the period as the easterly fetch drives the persistent easterly swell. Small craft exercise caution conditions are expected on the Gulf waters tonight through Tuesday night due to building wave heights. Additionally, small craft should exercise caution is expected on the bay waters Tuesday afternoon due to strengthening southeast winds. (Wednesday through Saturday)...Southeast flow will be well established by Wednesday and will persist through the first half the weekend. Pressure gradient gradually strengthens between surface ridging over the Gulf and a series of low pressure areas moving across the Southern and Central Plains. Periodic Small Craft advisories due to higher winds and increasing sea/swells are still anticipated for much of the latter half of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 78 64 78 / 10 10 10 0 BROWNSVILLE 62 79 65 82 / 10 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 59 81 64 82 / 10 10 10 0 MCALLEN 61 82 65 86 / 10 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 61 85 64 90 / 10 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 63 69 65 73 / 10 10 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 55-Adams/Aviation
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Brownsville TX 547 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021 TXZ248>257-351-353-100000- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron- Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- 547 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the local beaches Tuesday through Sunday. A Wind Advisory is possible for portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Wednesday through Saturday. Minor coastal flooding, with waves occasionally washing up to the base of the dunes, is possible at the local beaches Tuesday through Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-100000- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 547 PM CST Mon Mar 8 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Small Craft Advisories are possible along the Lower Texas Coast Tuesday night through Saturday night due to strong winds and rough seas along the Lower Texas Coast. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Due to a persistent lack of significant rainfall, Exceptional (D4) Drought developed across far northeastern portions of Zapata County. Extreme (D3) Drought remained in place across the remainder of the county.
Due to a persistent lack of significant rainfall, Exceptional (D4) Drought developed across the western half of Jim Hogg County. Extreme (D3) Drought remained in place across the eastern half. These conditions would remain unchanged through the end of March.
Due to a persistent lack of significant rainfall, a stripe of Exceptional (D4) Drought developed across western and central portions of Starr County on March 9th, with a portion of Extreme Drought remaining near Roma and the eastern half of the county, with a sliver of Severe Drought (D2) remaining on the border of Hidalgo County.
Due to a persistent lack of significant rainfall, Extreme (D3) Drought expanded into central portions of Coastal Kenedy County, with D2 continuing near the Wind Farms and toward the Willacy County line. By the 16th, the area of D3 would expand a bit farther north and south.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 950158, 950160, 950161, 950167.