Drought in Texas, June 1 to 8, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021

.AVIATION...
Pockets of stratus across the South Plains area early this morning
are expected to expand and lower through the early morning hours.
Still some uncertainty as to how far they will go, possibly into
IFR criteria, but certainly toward lower part of MVFR. If the
onset of the expansion is delayed, the potential for restrictions
to visiblity due to fog will increase. VFR conditions expected to
return this afternoon. TS chances look to be small through the
day. Better chances for KPVW and KLBB come very late in the TAF
period with the potential for an MCS to move out of eastern New
Mexico this evening. Will leave mention out at this time pending
better idea of how or if the system will develop and evolve and
better fine tune timing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021/

UPDATE...
We have cancelled the Flood Watch a little ahead of its 6 PM
expiration. Showers traversing the South Plains region continue to
wane in intensity and coverage, with only a few light showers
lingering over the eastern South Plains into the Rolling Plains as
of late this afternoon. This downward trend in precipitation is
expected to persist through the evening hours as the primary low-
level focus and best instability are now well south of the CWA.
There is a lot of convection well to our west, across central and
western New Mexico, and what remains of this could make a run at
the FA late tonight, after midnight. However, our worked over
airmass shouldn't support more than decaying convection and
relatively light rainfall (if any) directed at our more northern
zones, which largely missed out on the heavier rain this round.
All said, it seemed prudent to cancel the Flood Watch now.

The cool and moist low levels could support patchy fog formation
early Tuesday morning, if too much residual cloud cover doesn't
hang around. We'll assess this and add it to the forecast if
trends hold. Otherwise, we have trended PoPs downward the rest of
this afternoon, and may have to adjust them down this evening too.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 217 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021/

DISCUSSION...
A convectively enhanced front has pushed well south of the region
this afternoon. Therefore, any instability realized for the rest of
today will likely be of the elevated variety. Much stronger
convection will be located closer to the front in the Permian Basin.
Cool conditions persisted across the entire FA this afternoon under
mostly northeasterly low level flow. One of the warmest spots on the
caprock this afternoon was in Yoakum County in the balmy mid to
upper 60s. Model soundings were moist adiabatic leading to tall
CAPEs. Although moisture will still be abundant across the region
for the rest of the afternoon, there will not be much in the way of
vigorously lifting this air. Thunderstorms moving across eastern New
Mexico will move into an increasingly less favorable environment
becoming increasingly elevated and less instability to work with.
Furthermore, ongoing rain showers and isolated convection will also
dampen the potential for strong updrafts. Large scale lift will
gradually wane through the rest of the afternoon and evening. A
potent short wave was moving well to the northwest of the area
already this afternoon with an area of subsidence moving overhead.
In general, the weak updrafts combined with subsidence will limit
severe storm potential for the rest of the afternoon. However, minor
flooding is still likely given very moist antecedent conditions.

The upper low currently over the southwestern CONUS will cut off
over Baja California on Tuesday and remain there for much of this
week. We will come under the influence of westerly/northwesterly
flow aloft as an upper level trough moves across the Plains. An
upper ridge building over the western CONUS on Tuesday will develop
a pseudo like rex blocking pattern for the next several days. High
terrain convection from New Mexico may be able to move in to West
Texas late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning within this
west to northwesterly flow aloft. With the persisting upper level
pattern, a repeat could be possible on both Wednesday and Thursday.
The aforementioned cut off low will reemerge over central Texas this
weekend. This will lead to a general weakness in the height fields
overhead resulting in diurnally driven storms this weekend.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

07

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
430 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

TXZ021>044-012130-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
430 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Patchy fog, potentially dense, will be possible late tonight into
Tuesday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorm chances Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons and evenings
will focus on areas near the New Mexico state line. These storms
could become severe. Thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for
Thursday through Sunday. There is a risk of severe weather with
these storms.