Rip Current in Puerto Rico, June 1, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
1122 AM AST Tue Jun 1 2021

.UPDATE...

The previous forecast discussion is in good agreement with the
current weather conditions. Rain activity moved into the interior
and western interior sections by mid-morning, as the mid-level
ridge weakens and the breezy easterlies winds pushed a surge of
moisture over the islands. Rainy conditions will persist today,
and the best activity is expected over the western portions of
Puerto Rico and downwind from the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHRA will move across the local flying area. Some of these SHRAs
will move into terminals at times. Afternoon convection will
develop and could impact JBQ between 01/16-23z. Mountain
obscuration will continue over the Cordillera Central and will
last through at least 01/23z. Winds will continue from the E at
10-20 knots with higher gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...

Small craft operators should exercise caution across the Atlantic
Waters and Caribbean Passages due to easterly winds between 15 and
20 knots producing choppy seas up to 6 feet. Elsewhere, expect
seas of 5 feet or less.

Beachgoers, there is a moderate risk of rip currents along the
Atlantic beaches and southeast coast of PR, Vieques, Culebra, St
Croix, and the south coast of St Thomas and St John.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 445 AM AST Tue Jun 1 2021/

SYNOPSIS...A seasonal weather pattern is expected to prevail
today, with brief passing showers in the morning hours over the
windward sections of the islands and local waters. Then, in the
afternoon hours, heavy shower activity is expected over western
Puerto Rico due to diurnal effects. A cut-off low will open into
a trough and remain west of the region during the second part of
the week. This will promote unstable conditions aloft and enhance
afternoon shower development across the islands. A broad surface
high over the central Atlantic will hold through early next week.

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...
A weak mid-level ridge over the Caribbean Sea will continue to
loose influence over the region today, as a trough pattern
develops west of the area. Further weakening of the trade wind cap
is expected on Wednesday and Thursday, and afternoon showers are
expected to gradually increase in areal coverage each day. A broad
surface high across the central Atlantic will continue to promote
patches of low-level cloudiness and passing showers across the
U.S. Virgin Islands and the eastern sections of Puerto Rico, and
as well across the regional waters during the next several days.
This influx of moisture will keep precipitable water content
(PWAT) at or above normal levels through the short term period,
and enhance the diurnally induced afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms over portions of central and western PR each
afternoon.

Instability will increase late Wednesday into Thursday due to the
mid-to-upper level trough west of the area. The 500 mb
temperatures are forecast to drop around -8C by 06z Thursday and
PWAT is expected to peak to near 2 inches during the day on
Thursday. Urban and small stream flooding will be the main threat
each day with the afternoon thunderstorms and enhanced overnight
shower activity across eastern PR.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

A mid-to upper-level trough located over the southwestern
Atlantic will continue to move southward more into the region.
According to model guidance from the ECMWF and GFS, the trough
axis is expected to stand over the Hispanola from Friday into the
weekend. This will result in instability aloft, increasing the
potential for more widespread shower activity. Also, the potential
for isolated thunderstorm activity is still on track due to 500
mb temperatures between -7 and -8 degrees Celsius, according to
the GFS model.

At the surface, a strong high pressure located over the north
central Atlantic will keep a moderate east-southeasterly wind flow
through the period bringing from time to time cloudiness and
moisture over the region on Friday into Saturday. As the surface
ridge moves eastward, an increase in tropical moisture from a weak
easterly wave will move over the region on Sunday. This will
promote moisture content at all levels, increasing the potential
for widespread shower activity. If model guidance is correct, the
heaviest shower activity will prevail on Saturday into Sunday,
mainly during the afternoon hours over the interior and northwest
sections of Puerto Rico and the San Juan Metro area. The typical
morning and evening shower activity will prevail across the
windward regions and the U.S. Virgin Islands. As a result,
ponding of water to urban and small stream flooding can be
expected. Additionally, as the surface ridge promotes an east to
southeasterly wind flow, warmer than normal temperatures are
expected during the long term period.

AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
all terminals. However, SHRA/TSRA will cause areas of MVFR conds
across western PR btw 16z-22z, impacting TJBQ and the vcty of
TJPS. Elsewhere, -RA/VCSH expected at times. East winds 10-15 kts
with sea breeze variations aft 14z.

MARINE...Choppy marine conditions will continue with seas up to
6 feet and winds between 15-20 knots across most of the local
waters. Therefore, small craft operators should exercise caution
across the Atlantic offshore waters and the waters between eastern
PR and the USVI. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across
the north and southeastern exposed beaches of Puerto Rico, some
beaches at Culebra and Vieques, as well most of the St. Croix
beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  87  76  86  77 /  40  50  50  60
STT  88  77  87  76 /  40  40  40  40

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CAM
LONG TERM....CS
PUBLIC DESK...GL

Perspectivas sobre Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR
448 AM AST martes 1 de junio de 2021

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-020900-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-
Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Las aguas costeras
cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe-
448 AM AST martes 1 de junio de 2021

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras del Atlantico.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Tronadas...Existe el potencial de tronadas con lluvias fuertes y
vientos en rafaga breves esta tarde a traves de sectores del oeste
de Puerto Rico.

.Inundaciones...Lluvias de moderadas a fuertes pudieran resultar en
inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos.

.Vientos...Vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 mph (17 nudos) se
esperan a traves de las aguas mar afuera.

.Oleaje...Oleaje picado de hasta 6 pies se espera a traves de las
aguas mar afuera del Atlantico. Oleaje de hasta 5 pies se espera en
el resto de las aguas.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas a lo largo de las playas del este, norte y sur de Puerto
Rico, al igual que la mayoria de las playas en Vieques y Culebra.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...miercoles a lunes

Cualquier lluvia adicional sobre suelos ya saturados resultara en
inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos hasta posibles deslizamientos
de tierra en areas cerca de terreno empinado, especialmente con las
lluvias mas fuertes que se esperan cada tarde sobre el interior y
oeste de Puerto Rico. El riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas
continuara durante los proximos dias, extendiendose a lo largo de
las playas del sur y oeste el domingo.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Favor de reportar
cualquier informacion sobre inundaciones, vientos, oleaje y
corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan
mientras siguen las indicaciones de las autoridades locales y
estatales.

AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-020900-
San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe-
448 AM AST martes 1 de junio de 2021

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes.

.Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche

.Inundaciones...Lluvias moderadas pueden causar acumulacion de agua
en areas de pobre drenaje en St. Thomas.

.Vientos...Vientos sostenidos en exceso de 20 mph (17 nudos) se
esperan a traves de las aguas mar afuera.

.Oleaje...Oleaje picado de hasta 6 pies se espera a traves de las
aguas mar afuera del Atlantico. Oleaje de hasta 5 pies se espera en
el resto de las aguas.

.Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para la mayor parte de las playas de St. Croix y algunas
playas del sur de St. Thomas y St. John.

.Dias dos hasta el siete...miercoles a lunes

El riesgo moderado de corrientes marinas continuara durante los
proximos dias a traves de St. Croix, extendiendose a lo largo de la
mayoria de las playas de las islas el domingo.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Favor de reportar
cualquier informacion sobre vientos, oleaje y corrientes marinas al
Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las
indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales.