A portion of northwestern Zapata County remained under Severe (D2) Drought to begin the month of June. This would persist through the first week of the month, with some beneficial rain events finally ending Severe (D2) Drought in the area with the June 8 Drought Monitor Update.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
A portion of northwestern Zapata County remained under Severe (D2) Drought to begin the month of June. This would persist through the first week of the month, with some beneficial rain events finally ending Severe (D2) Drought in the area with the June 8 Drought Monitor Update.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 31, 11:50 PM CST, 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Some low to high level cloud passing overhead and light southeast winds prevail across deep south Texas early this morning. Radar continues to indicate a cluster of convection upstream, near Eagle Pass, moving to the southeast. The latest HRRR run takes this convection complex southeast towards deep south Texas through the early morning hours and moves this activity mainly across the central and western portions of the area. Will mention PROB30/TEMPO wording for TSRA at the local aerodromes, especially after 15Z. Otherwise, Mainly VFR conditions and light to moderate southeast winds are expected through much of the period. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1044 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021/ DISCUSSION...The 02Z HRRR run takes the conv complex up in the Big Bend area south and southeast towards Deep South TX around the early morning hours crossing mainly the central and western portions of the area. This model appears to be initializing on the ongoing conv pretty well and has shown pretty good run to run consistency in moving it into Deep South TX/RGV. So have updated the forecast wording to account for a little more potential conv coverage over the central and western Counties. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...The afternoon convection has remain confined to the west of the RGV over the higher terrain of NE Mex. So far this conv appears pretty stationary and does not pose an immediate threat to the area airports. The HRRR and NAM12 guidance keep the RGV free of conv overnight as the latest LAPS data shows relatively more stable conditions over the eastern half of the region with the highest CAPE values located over the far western counties. Around or just after sunrise Tues, the HRRR/NAM12 then want to pull some conv in over the region from the north. But there remains big diffences in timing of the potential conv initiation. For now will hold off on including any conv chcs for the HRL and BRO airports throughout the upcoming 24 hours, but will maintain some PROB30 groups for the MFE airport due to MFE being a little bit close to the better conv chcs in the short term. For aviation conditions will go with a blend of VFR/MVFR conditions for all three RGV airports. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 253 PM CDT Mon May 31 2021/ SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night): The short-term forecast is a very complicated and challenging one to say the least. The main focus in this forecast package has been the chances of precipitation/thunderstorm development through the period. As 500mb ridging continues to sit over central/northern Mexico today, a longwave trough will dig southward out of the Rockies/Plains and over Texas by this evening. An extension of the trough will break away from the main mid/upper-level flow, creating a cutoff Baja low by late tonight. As the trough continues to dig into northern & central Texas this evening, the ridging overhead will weaken/flatten out and help generate a series of shortwave troughs upstream from Deep South Texas in the process. The most difficult part of the forecast has been analyzing how all of these interactions will evolve over the next 24 to 36 hours, which will play a key role in determining precipitation chances. Seems like each deterministic & hi-res model, although having a similar synoptic setup, has subtle differences that in turn, have very different solutions. Latest and current thinking is the rest of the afternoon and evening will be dry under partly to mostly cloudy skies. A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is expected to develop in Coahuila, MX/Western Texas this evening as a result of a mid-level shortwave trough. Hard to determine the exact path this MCS will take, but the southern extent of it may sideswipe or clip portions of the western CWFA overnight tonight or early-mid Tuesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for Zapata and portions of western Starr Counties in their D2 outlook to account for this scenario. The primary threat with these storms that go severe will be gusty/damaging wind gusts. The storms may spread into the middle part of the CWA by mid-late morning, but less likely to be severe by that time. A moist and unstable atmosphere will keep the threat of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through the day on Tuesday across the region, though storm development will be very conditional and highly dependent on what happens earlier in the morning tomorrow. By Tuesday evening/night, another shortwave trough is expected to develop over Mexico and push over Southern Texas, likely developing another storm complex across northern Mexico and/or southwest Texas that will move southeastward, possibly impacting Deep South Texas. Even less is known about this system, but most forecast models are at least acknowledging it at this time. Will continue to monitor and update the forecast as necessary. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): Unsettled (wetter) weather will be the rule for much of the long term, especially up front and into the early part of the weekend. Isolated stronger activity on Tuesday night will wind down by the beginning of the long term, i.e. Wednesday. The lower RGV initially will still be looking at a mid level cut off low over Baja California extending southwest from a larger scale trough over the Plains, with broad surface high pressure over the Northwest Gulf. The influx of low level Gulf moisture on southeast winds, coupled with instability over the Sierra Madre Oriental Range to the west, will support scattered shower and general thunderstorm activity Wednesday night. As always, attention to eastward propagating cells will be required. The Plains trough will start to edge eastward into the Midwest on Thursday, while the Baja low will also shift east into a slightly more compact area over West Texas. Another round of Sierra Madre convection will be possible Thursday night as energy aloft moves over the mountains. The long range models are broadbrushing the CWA with precip on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, with WPC forecasting modest amounts below an inch each of those days. It will be difficult to pinpoint which areas will see the best rain chances and the most rain. However, it is June and pockets of locally heavy rain will be possible. Saturday may be the best day for rain as the remnant Baja low, still well defined aloft, will move east across Central Texas. An inch or two of rain may fall on Saturday with the low in close proximity. Though H5 solutions are similar, the ECMWF appears to be a bit more aggressive than the GFS with QPF on Saturday. Consensus temperatures for the period are near normal; 70s for overnight lows and 90s for daytime highs with some lower bias due to higher rain chances. Upstream ridging will edge closer on Sunday and Monday, with rain chances trending lower as a result. Slightly drier air will work into the area from the west on Monday and Tuesday, but this will not last long before upper ridging shifts northeast and Gulf moisture regains the upper hand. MARINE: Now through Tuesday Night...Mostly favorable and tranquil marine conditions will prevail on the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through Tuesday night as broad high pressure sits over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Light to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas will prevail through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible from time to time. Wednesday through Saturday Night: Light to moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas will prevail through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible from time to time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 86 74 86 / 20 30 30 40 BROWNSVILLE 77 89 75 88 / 20 30 30 40 HARLINGEN 74 88 74 88 / 20 30 40 50 MCALLEN 75 91 73 88 / 40 40 50 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 73 92 72 91 / 60 50 60 60 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 82 77 81 / 20 30 30 40 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 63-KC
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 TXZ248>257-351-353-020530- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron- Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- 1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Brooks Counties until 6 AM CDT Tuesday. There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the beaches of South Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday through Saturday. Isolated stronger thunderstorms could produce small hail, strong and gusty winds, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall/nuisance flooding. An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the local beaches Tuesday through Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-020530- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 1 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Rest of Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the lower Texas marine locations from Wednesday through Sunday. Isolated stronger thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, locally higher seas, and frequent cloud to water lightning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) Drought remained in place across northwestern portions of Zapata County. This would persist through the first week of the month, with some beneficial rain events finally ending Severe (D2) Drought in the area with the June 8 Drought Monitor Update.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, June 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 956479.