An Arctic front brought extreme cold to Southeast Texas and a few bouts of winter precipitation. The first storm brought snow, sleet and/or freezing rain to different parts of the area.
Every event with a place to put it; 14 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS HGX wrote it up.
An Arctic front brought extreme cold to Southeast Texas and a few bouts of winter precipitation. The first storm brought snow, sleet and/or freezing rain to different parts of the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Houston/Galveston, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 13, 5:33 PM CST, 4 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
533 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
Challenging forecast ahead, but for the moment, things are quiet -
even breaking into VFR in the southeastern portion of the area
including more than half of the TAF sites. Expect clouds that
lifted/scattered this afternoon should quickly become MVFR in the
020-025 range this evening with some light showers/drizzle
developing overnight. Cold enough up north that I make a
changeover tonight to FZRA/SNPL for CLL and UTS, and even clip CXO
briefly with SNPL. For IAH southward, expecting to stay all rain
until tomorrow night. Hint at the changeover for the IAH extended
period: this may be a few hours early, but would rather err on
the side of caution for now.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 403 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021/...
.DISCUSSION...
* Bitterly cold air will continue moving into the region into
midweek as an Arctic airmass spills into the area. Prolonged
periods of below freezing temperatures are expected - even at
the beaches.
* Two weather systems (one Sunday night-Monday morning and
another toward midweek) will produce winter precipitation across
many parts of Southeast Texas.
* Travel will be impacted by hazardous road conditions. Sporadic
power outages will be a possibility where ice builds up on
powerlines and/or trees. Pipes (including sprinkler systems) will
be subject to bursting if not adequately insulated, and
hypothermia may be a possibility for those exposed and not dressed
accordingly.
* Residents should complete preparations before the coldest air
and widespread frozen precipitation begins arriving Sunday
evening. Remember the 4 P's: pipes, people, pets and plants. In
addition, be aware of space heater and generator dangers if not
properly placed/used.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
Temperatures so far today have been hovering around or slightly below
freezing across our northwest counties, mid to upper 30s central and
lower to mid 40s coast. Almost nothing has been showing up on radar,
but that will change beginning tonight as the first disturbance moves
across the area and produces frozen precipitation north (where lows
will be near or slightly below freezing) and rain to the south (where
temperatures above freezing are expected). At 9 PM, the Winter Storm
Warning begins up north, and the Winter Storm Watch begins down south.
For the most part, light accumulations are expected overnight through
much of tomorrow morning with this first system, but any accumulations
in/near the warning area will lead to hazardous conditions.
High resolution models coming in are painting a potentially very dangerous
winter weather event over at least the next 48 hours (through Monday),
and with a long period of below freezing temperatures, very dangerous
conditions look to be setting up for parts of the area Tuesday through
Thursday night (see the Long Term section below).
The stronger system begins tomorrow afternoon and peaks tomorrow night
through early Monday morning. The Winter Storm Watch is upgraded to
a Winter Storm Warning at 3 PM Sunday, and this places the entire area
under the Warning through Monday afternoon. As temperatures fall from
Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, expect to see periods of rain
mixed with freezing rain/drizzle up north that will eventually transition
to snow, and expect to see periods of rain transitioning to rain mixed
with freezing rain/drizzle that eventually could transition to snow
down south...including the beaches. High resolution models coming in
are showing the potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow north (locally
higher amounts possible) with lower amounts as you get closer to the
coast. Further to the south, freezing rain accumulations may reach
a tenth to a quarter inch. If this happens, expect to see sporadic
power outages where the buildup occurs on powerlines and/or trees.
Pipes (including sprinkler systems) will be subject to bursting if
not adequately insulated, and hypothermia may be a possibility for
those exposed and not dressed accordingly. Monday's high temperatures
will struggle to get any warmer than the teens north and west and the
20s south and coast. A Hard Freeze Watch and a Wind Chill Watch begin
at 6 PM Monday for the entire area, and they will likely need to be
upgraded to a Warning.
You only have about one day left to prepare for this potentially historic
winter event! 42
.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
While the first round of winter precipitation comes to an end on
Monday afternoon, the other dangerous hazard going into the
overnight hours will be the extremely dangerous low temperatures. On
Tuesday morning, lows will be near zero in our northern counties,
around 10-15 degrees near Houston and in the upper-teens/lower 20s
along the coast. None of the winter precipitation will melt, so
travel conditions will be extremely hazardous through at least
Tuesday afternoon. This arctic air will be very frigid, and those
without the proper attire will be at risk of hypothermia if outdoors
for an extended period of time. For Tuesday, areas north of I-10
will likely remain below freezing even into the afternoon hours, so
any winter precipitation that has previously fallen will remain and
so will the hazardous travel conditions. South of I-10, temperatures
will make it into the mid-to-upper 30s and lower 40s along the
coast.
A surface coastal low begins to develop late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning. This will bring another round of precipitation to
the area throughout the day on Wednesday and into Thursday morning.
Model guidance is still iffy on the temperatures as far as the
freezing line goes. There is consistency that the initial surge of
moisture comes early on Wednesday when our northern counties will
still be below freezing. Forecast soundings support a freezing
rain/sleet mix initially for this area. Temperatures expected to
rise above freezing in the afternoon hours, so a transition over to
rain is anticipated during this timeframe. As far as the Wednesday
temperatures go, it'll be close (talking a 1-2 degree difference)
for our far northern counties on if they get above freezing. GFS and
Euro are in agreement on a transition back to freezing rain going
into Wednesday night for our northern counties as temperatures begin
to fall, followed by a transition to snow on early Thursday morning
as the precipitation finally comes to an end. Overnight temperatures
for Wednesday will drop below freezing once again for most of the
area (the exception being along the coast and our far southeastern
locations). With ground temperatures likely not recovering enough,
we could have another period of hazardous travel conditions for
Wednesday night/Thursday.
This may sound like a broken record, but high temperatures on
Thursday are likely to remain below freezing once again for our
northern counties. It is a very real possibility that our northern
locations may not reach above 32 degrees until Friday. Further to
south, temperatures will make it into the upper 30s/low 40s. The
somewhat good news is that high pressure will be moving in from the
west, so we'll see clearing skies and an end to the winter
precipitation. The mostly clear skies combined with continued CAA
with northerly winds flowing over the ice that will still be in
place to the north means we're expecting another hard freeze for
Thursday night with temperatures down into the teens up north and in
the 20s near the Houston metro area and south. High pressure moves
off to the east on Friday and puts us into a southerly flow.
Temperatures will FINALLY get out of the 30s as we see high
temperatures back into the 40s/50s which seems rather warm in
comparison. Southerly flow continues into Saturday where we will
likely see temperatures rise into the 60s. How's that for a
temperature swing? 26
.MARINE...
Northerly winds of 20-25 knots with gusts near 30 knots continue to
persist. SCA will remain in place for all the waters through
tomorrow night as these conditions will continue to persist. Heading
into Sunday, winds will become northeasterly as a coastal low begins
to develop in the western Gulf. Wind speeds will increase to 30-35
knots with gusts over 40 knots in the timeframe of Sunday
night/Monday morning. A Gale Watch is in effect for this time period
as a result. Additionally, seas will build up to 12-13 feet offshore
and 7-8 feet nearshore. As the low pushes off to the east, strong
offshore flow returns in its wake and seas will begin to decrease
throughout the day on Monday. Another potential hazard for this
event will be freezing spray with the prolonged period of freezing
temperatures. Wind speeds will start to come down on Tuesday morning
as well. Another coastal low will spin up on Wednesday morning and
bring another period of SCA conditions as offshore winds of 20-25
knots return. 26
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 28 33 13 14 3 / 40 30 90 70 0
Houston (IAH) 33 37 20 21 10 / 30 20 90 80 0
Galveston (GLS) 41 42 28 29 19 / 30 20 80 80 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Chill Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning for
the following zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.
Hard Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning
for the following zones:
Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.
Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Sunday to 6 PM CST Monday for the
following zones: Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston Island
and Bolivar Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Matagorda Islands...Northern Liberty...Southern
Liberty...Wharton.
Winter Storm Watch from 9 PM CST this evening through Sunday
afternoon for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands...Northern Liberty...Southern Liberty...Wharton.
Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday
for the following zones:
Austin...Brazos...Burleson...Colorado...Grimes...Houston...Madison...Montgomery...Polk...San
Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington.
GM...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston
Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Sunday night for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
DISCUSSION...42
SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...26The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
14 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
After a period of freezing drizzle that created an icy glaze, four to six inches of snow and some sleet fell across the county. In addition wind chill indices fell below zero for a period of time during and after the snow ended.
After a period of freezing drizzle that created an icy glaze, three to six inches of snow and sleet fell across the county. In addition wind chill indices fell below zero for a period of time during and after the snow ended.
After a period of freezing drizzle that created an icy glaze, four to six inches of snow and sleet fell across the county. In addition wind chill indices fell below zero for a period of time during and after the snow ended.
After a period of freezing drizzle that created an icy glaze, four to six inches of snow and some sleet fell across the county. In addition wind chill indices fell below zero for a period of time during and after the snow ended.
Three to five inches of sleet and snow fell across the county with the highest amounts northern sections.
Intermittent freezing drizzle first then a more steady period of sleet and snow. Two to 4 inches of sleet and snow accumulated around the county.
Intermittent sleet and first then a more steady period of sleet and snow. Two to 4 inches of sleet and snow accumulated around the county.
Intermittent sleet to start then 2 to 5 inches of sleet and snow measured around the county...with the higher amounts NW portions.
One to three inches of sleet and snow measured around the county.
One to three inches of sleet and snow measured around the county with the higher amounts NW portions.
One to three inches of sleet and snow measured around the county with the higher amounts NW portions.
Three to five inches of sleet and snow fell across the county.
Three to five inches of sleet and snow fell across the county.
One to locally three inches of sleet and snow was measured over mainly NW Harris County. Lesser amounts of mainly sleet fell mainly over SE portions.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 942712, 944991, 944992, 945515, 942711, 945922, 942699, 942702, 942701, 942704, 942705, 942708, 942709, 942716.