High Wind in Texas, December 5 to 6, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1045 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

.AVIATION...
A strong cold front will continue to move south overnight across
the region. Northerly winds of 25-35 kt with gusts to 40 kt can be
expected immediately following the front, while gradually
diminishing in speed through sunrise before weakening altogether
on Monday afternoon. Expect significant cross winds on 8/26 at
KLBB. Patchy blowing dust may temporarily reduce visibility. LLWS
will also develop overnight, with shear magnitudes approaching 35
kt as low as 600 ft AGL at all terminals. VFR prevails for the
TAF period otherwise.

Sincavage

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 950 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021/

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
A strong cold front continues to move southward across the Texas
Panhandle tonight. West Texas Mesonet and regional METAR data
have observed sustained wind speeds between 30-40 mph with
locally higher wind gusts behind the front, with the highest gust
of 62 mph measured at the mesonet near Fritch. Mesonet data has
also observed 1-hourly pressure rises of 4-5 mb and 3-hourly
pressure rises of 10-11 mb, equating to an average pressure
tendency of +4 mb/hr over three hours. The front has crossed the
I-40 corridor at the time of this discussion, and confidence is
high in the timing of arrival across the northern zones with an
expectation of sustained, northerly winds of 25-35 mph and gusts
up to 45 mph across the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. As a
result, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the extreme southern
TX PH (Parmer County eastward to Childress County), and will be in
effect from 06/05-08Z.

Furthermore, patchy blowing dust may briefly reduce visibility
along the immediate edge of the cold front, as indicated on
numerous METARs across the northern Texas Panhandle. Downstream
extension of the Wind Advisory may be possible, though the
pressure gradient (and therefore pressure tendencies) should begin
to decrease as the front moves southward across the CWA and
further away from the mid-level jet streak over the central Great
Plains, and is why the advisory only includes the extreme southern
TX PH at this time.

Sincavage

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021/

SHORT TERM...
Warm, breezy and dry westerly surface winds (20-30mph) will persist
through the afternoon and into the evening hours before a strong dry
cold front, currently in central Kansas, arrives later tonight. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect for the northern South Plains and
southwest Texas Panhandle until 6PM CST, so please be careful if
burning outside. An upper level closed low currently over northwest
old Mexico will stall/slightly retrograde overnight as the surface
cold front pushes south across West Texas. The Polar Jet will
gradually flatten and become zonal by tomorrow evening and begin to
absorb the current disturbance over Mexico as it evolves from a
closed system into an open wave. Northerly surface winds around
20mph will persist overnight spreading colder temperatures across
the region tonight and tomorrow. CAA will result in overnight lows
in the 20s and low 30s on the Caprock, and low to mid 30s to the
east of the escarpment. Winds will begin to ease late tomorrow
afternoon, but highs will peak in the mid/upper 40s despite plenty
of sunshine.

LONG TERM...
Upper flow will generally flatten on Tuesday as a weakening
shortwave moves across South Texas and broad upper troughing
overspreads much of the CONUS. The pattern will remain this way
for much of the upcoming week, with mean westerlies in place aloft
as a series of progressive shortwaves rotate through the
Intermountain West within the broader longwave troughing over much
of the CONUS. In terms of sensible weather, a warm and generally
breezy mid/late week period is in store as the low and mid levels
will remain definitively dry within this pattern and meaningful
forcing is confined well to the north. Persistent surface
troughing over the central/southern plains in response to the
aforementioned series of upper impulses will keep winds out of the
west Tuesday through Friday. This dry, downslope flow will result
in a gradual warm up through this period with high temperatures
reaching values 15 to 20 degrees above normal by Thu/Fri. The
other main forecast concern through Friday will be the potential
for elevated fire danger each afternoon given the expected
extended stretch of dry and breezy conditions.

Guidance still suggests a deeper upper trough will pivot through
the Four Corners region Friday night into Saturday, sending a
cold front southward through the region and ending our stretch of
well above normal temperatures. There is a weak signal that this
system may have a bit better moisture associated with it which
will bring a slim chance of light precipitation as the main
forcing moves overhead on Saturday. Not overly optimistic given
the progressive nature of the wave and the lack of any
persistently deep moisture, but will maintain a slight chance
mention for Saturday in the interest of forecast continuity and in
line with the blended guidance. If we do indeed manage to see
precip from this system, amounts will be light as the wave quickly
departs and upper ridging builds back into the region. /DWK

FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 6 PM CST for the southwestern
Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains, and a Fire Danger Statement
is in effect until 6 PM CST for the remainder of the South Plains, the
southeastern Texas Panhandle, and the northern Rolling Plains.

After a cool day on Monday, fire weather concerns will increase
again towards the middle and end of this week as temperatures warm.
Above normal temperatures, increasing west winds, and dry to
critically dry fuels may result in elevated or critical fire
weather conditions, particularly on Thursday and Friday when the
driest air, warmest temperatures, and strongest winds are
expected.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 2 AM CST Monday for TXZ021>026.

&&

09/09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
924 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

TXZ021>044-070330-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
924 PM CST Sun Dec 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A strong cold front will move in from the north across West Texas
tonight, and a Wind Advisory is in effect from 11 PM CST to 2 AM CST
for the extreme southern Texas Panhandle. Northerly winds of 25 to 35
mph with gusts up to 45 mph can be expected, and winds should begin
to gradually diminish in intensity as the front enters the South
Plains and Rolling Plains. Blustery conditions will persist otherwise
across the region through late Monday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Elevated fire danger will be possible, mainly Thursday and Friday.