New York, 2021

Lakeshore Flood and Lake-Effect Snow in New York, December 5 to 7, 2021

December 5 to 7, 2021 · NWS BUF · 10 events in 7 counties and zones

Low pressure strengthened to about 985 hPa as it tracked from Lake Superior to central Quebec. Ahead of low, a strong low-level jet of about 70 knots was associated with a warm front, while weaker post-frontal winds only spurred 45-50 knots at 850 hPa.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 10 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$2,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
10

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.

Low pressure strengthened to about 985 hPa as it tracked from Lake Superior to central Quebec. Ahead of low, a strong low-level jet of about 70 knots was associated with a warm front, while weaker post-frontal winds only spurred 45-50 knots at 850 hPa. This drove an odd downsloping wind event in the warm sector. While winds along the Chautauqua Ridge never topped 50 knots at the surface, they did north of the less impressive hills of the Finger Lakes. This resulted in reports of damage in Ontario County. Post cold frontal winds were also marginal, and most of the areas that gusted the strongest in the cold advection behind the cold front were downstream of the still warm Great Lakes. The isallobaric pressure rises and incoming high pressure resulted in a fairly weak seiche on Lake Erie, however it did rise to just over 8 feet in downtown Buffalo. Further along in the cold advection, lake effect snow developed downwind of Lake Erie. This resulted in localized heavy accumulations in Chautauqua County in the higher terrain, including 12.3 inches in Kennedy and 10 inches outside of Jamestown. Peak wind gusts included 59 mph at Rochester Airport, 58 mph at Watertown Airport, 61 mph at Batavia, and 71 mph at Brant.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 5, 10:40 PM EST, 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 5, 10:40 PM EST, 20 minutes before
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Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 5, 10:42 PM EST, 18 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1042 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

NYZ013-020-021-070345-
Livingston-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
1042 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-011-012-070345-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-
1042 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-070345-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
1042 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-070345-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
1042 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-070345-
Northern Erie-
1042 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST MONDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Lakeshore Flood Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ014-070345-
Ontario-
1042 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-070345-
Lewis-
1042 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

Accumulating lake effect snow is possible east of Lake Ontario
Monday night into Tuesday, with several inches expected on the Tug
Hill Plateau.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-070345-
Jefferson-
1042 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

Accumulating lake effect snow is possible east of Lake Ontario
Monday night into Tuesday, with several inches expected on the Tug
Hill Plateau.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-070345-
Oswego-
1042 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

Accumulating lake effect snow is possible east of Lake Ontario
Monday night into Tuesday, with several inches expected on the Tug
Hill Plateau.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-070345-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
1042 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-062-070345-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
1042 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-070345-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
1042 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-070345-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1042 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-070345-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1042 PM EST Sun Dec 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

6 high wind, 3 lakeshore flood, 1 lake-effect snow. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Ontario

When
December 5, 11:00 PM EST to December 6, 3:00 AM EST
Where
Ontario forecast zone
Measured
50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Property damage
$2,000
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
42.853, -77.300 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Trees were reported to be downed in Naples and South Bristol.

High Wind, Chautauqua

When
December 6, 1:00 PM EST to 6:00 PM EST
Where
Chautauqua forecast zone
Measured
40 kt (46 mph) measured sustained
Reported by
C-MAN Station
Coordinates
42.303, -79.406 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Sustained winds of 46 mph were reported in Dunkirk. Wind gusts of 64 mph and 59 mph were also reported in Forestville and Fredonia, respectively.

High Wind, Southern Erie

When
December 6, 1:00 PM EST to 6:00 PM EST
Where
Southern Erie forecast zone
Measured
62 kt (71 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Mesonet
Coordinates
42.758, -78.780 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Lakeshore Flood, Northern Erie

When
December 6, 3:18 PM EST to 3:36 PM EST
Where
Northern Erie forecast zone
Reported by
WLON
Coordinates
42.758, -78.780 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Lakeshore Flood, Southern Erie

When
December 6, 3:18 PM EST to 3:36 PM EST
Where
Southern Erie forecast zone
Reported by
WLON
Coordinates
42.758, -78.780 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Lakeshore Flood, Chautauqua

When
December 6, 3:18 PM EST to 3:36 PM EST
Where
Chautauqua forecast zone
Reported by
WLON
Coordinates
42.303, -79.406 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Lake-Effect Snow, Chautauqua

When
December 6, 4:00 PM EST to December 7, 7:00 AM EST
Where
Chautauqua forecast zone
Reported by
COOP Observer
Coordinates
42.303, -79.406 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Lake effect snow accumulations of 10 inches in Falconer and 8.2 inches in Jamestown were reported.

High Wind, Monroe

When
December 6, 5:00 PM EST to 10:00 PM EST
Where
Monroe forecast zone
Measured
51 kt (59 mph) measured gust
Reported by
ASOS
Coordinates
43.165, -77.636 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

High Wind, Jefferson

When
December 6, 5:00 PM EST to December 7, 12:00 AM EST
Where
Jefferson forecast zone
Measured
50 kt (58 mph) measured gust
Reported by
ASOS
Coordinates
43.999, -76.052 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

High Wind, Genesee

When
December 6, 5:00 PM EST to 10:00 PM EST
Where
Genesee forecast zone
Measured
51 kt (59 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Mesonet
Coordinates
43.001, -78.194 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Lakeshore Flood
Flooding along the shore of one of the Great Lakes or another large lake.
Lake-Effect Snow
Heavy snow in bands downwind of a large lake as cold air crosses warmer water.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in New York in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, December 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 988790, 988791, 988795, 988224, 988225, 988226, 988796, 988792, 988793, 988794.